Emission Projections

1. Emission Projections National RPO Meeting St. Louis, MO November 6, 2003 Presented by: Gregory Stella VISTAS Technical Advisor – Emission Inventories

2. VISTAS - Regional Haze Timeline PM2.5 Designation Feb/Dec 2004 PM2.5 & Haze SIPs Dec 2007 Regional Haze Rule 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 BART Sources VISTAS Planning Strategy Design Reasonable Progress Goals Policy Interpretation Air Quality Monitoring Baseline and natural conditions Base year and future year strategies Emissions Inventory Base year and future year air quality Atmospheric Modeling States Develop Haze SIPs

3. VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Deliverables Draft 08/18/03 Jan-Mar 2004 Define BART sources June 2004 Identify BART controls Dec 2003: Revised Em Inv Base 2002 Mar 2004: Draft Em Inv 2018 July 2004: Revised State Em Inv Base 2002 Sept 2004: Revised Em Inv 2018 Oct-Dec 2004: Control Strategy Inventories Aug 2003: Emissions Inventory Base 2002 Nov 2003: Met, Em, AQ model testing 3 episodes Dec 2003: Modeling Protocol Sept 2004: Annual Base Year Model Runs Dec 2004: Annual Run 2018 Jan 2005: Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes Jan-Jun 2005: Control Strategy Runs 2018 Oct 2004: Sensitivity Runs 2018 3 episodes July-Dec 2005: Observations Conclusions Recommendations Apr 2004: DDM in CMAQ Mar 2004: CART:select sensitivity episodes Optional Optional State Regulatory Activities Before Jun 2005 Other Inventory: e.g. Power Plant Turnover After Jun 2005 Model Runs: e.g. Power Plant Turnover

4. VISTAS Plan:Emission Inventories • Objective: Provide inventories for modeling speciated PM-2.5 and regional haze • State and local agencies review, revise • 2002 base year inventory • Draft delivered August 2003 • Revised delivered December 2003 • Based on data States will submit to CERR • 2018 inventory (RFP closed October 31) • Draft due Mar 2004 • Revised due September 2004

5. Other RPO Inventory Plans • Base Year Inventory (2002) • Most looking at fall 2004 (after CERR submittal) • Future Year Base Case Inventory • Unplanned to date

6. EPA’s New“Modeling Platform” • EI, Models, and Analyses • Base Year Emissions (2001) • Future Year Emissions • 2015 and 2020 now, but no 2018 scheduled • To be available by PMTR final analysis • Eventual coordination with Section 812 Study • Under review by SAB • Latest state-of-knowledge for growth & control • http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/blueprint.html

7. Emission Projection Coordination Needs • Common Inventories • 2002 NEI Submittal • RPO Data Exchange Format • Canada & Mexico • Common Future Year(s) • 2010 (2009 ?) & 2018 • Common Base Case Controls • Clear Skies, Nonroad Diesel, BART, etc. • Common Growth Methods • EGAS, IPM, NONROAD, VMT, etc.

8. Key Issues to Resolve • Methods for projection • Model or ad hoc calculation • Available growth & control information • Federal, Regional, or Local Regulation • Growth Rates • EGAS 4.0 (+), New VMT methods • Model specific input data • IPM, MOBILE6, NONROAD, CMU-NH3 • Source specific data • Enforcement action & consent decrees • Retirements & planned units

9. Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case”) • Use as much existing information as possible • Start with latest available projection documentation and control assumptions • EPA’s Nonroad Diesel / HDD / Clear Skies or Preview of PM Transport Rule (PMTR) • Use growth & control programs as starting point • Make VISTAS-specific where local input available • EGU, Non-EGU Point, Highway, Nonroad, NH3 • Coordinate with other RPOs

10. Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case” – 2) • Use stakeholder review for preliminary “Base Case” laugh test issues • Are we *WAY* off on any factors? • Example: Furniture Manufacturing in NC • Enables cursory review of assumptions and tees up data for more extensive final “Base Case” development

11. Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case” – 3) • What about BART? • Identify sources by January 2004 • Opportunity to include rough estimate of sources and controls in preliminary “Base Case” • Define BART controls by June 2004 • Fine tune for final “Base Case” • Stakeholder participation in further identification of sources and controls

12. Proposed Plan (Final “Base Case”) • Build on preliminary “Base Case” • Utilize “interest groups” by source sector • Groups to review, assess, and modify • Methods, models, and factors for projection • No impact on preliminary “Base Case” generation or planned sensitivity runs

13. VISTAS Next Steps • Award Projections RFP • Initiate work in November • Define Issues for “Special Interest” Teams • EGU • Non-EGU Point • Agriculture • Fires • Mobile (On and Off-Road) • Stationary Area

14. Special Interest Issues • EGU Sources • method for projection (IPM, Haiku, Facility provided, other?) • growth rates / energy efficiency • assumed control programs / emission rates • base and future year • BART identification • shared generation demands • planned units / capacity / retirements • utilization rates • “typical” operation for base & projection year • usage of CEM • stack parameters • making sure correct • variable stack parameters (hourly differences) • changes in stack parameters due to scrubber application

15. Special Interest Issues (2) • Non-EGU Point Sources • growth rates / energy efficiency • assumed control programs • base and future year • BART identification • stack parameters • making sure correct • planned units / retirements

16. Special Interest Issues (3) • Agriculture • improved NH3 estimates from animal / crop operations • growth rates / moratoriums • temporal schedule for VISTAS states • CAFOs

17. Special Interest Issues (4) • Fires • temporal and spatial distribution in base year • “typical” fire inventory for use in base and projection year • changes in fuel loadings / forest types

18. Special Interest Issues (5) • Mobile Sources (On and Offroad) • VMT or engine growth • control programs • I/M, LEV, RFP, fuel characteristics • Vehicle/fleet mix • Hybrid introduction • Speed data • Temperature application (same in base as is future) • 3-D aircraft emissions • nonroad distribution issues (e.g., CMV in WV) • shipping lane information

19. Special Interest Issues (6) • Stationary Area • growth rates / energy efficiency • assumed control programs • base and future year • PM transport factor application • paved / unpaved road estimate improvements • urban sprawl

20. Canadian Emission Projections • Based on 1995 CAC version 2 • Collaboration of EC and provinces & territories • Still maintains point source confidentiality • 2010 / 2020 Projections: Transport Modeling • Province / source sector growth rates • Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) report “Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update, December 1999”. • National CAC forecast is the sum of the provincial and territorial forecasts • Equivalent to a “Control Case” or “Clear Skies Case” • (i.e., not yet on the books)

21. Canadian Emission Projections (2) • “Base Case” was backed out • Incorporates all the emissions reduction measures that are already in place • Tier 1 and NLEV vehicles • Tier 2 and heavy duty vehicle NMHC, NOx, PM standards • Low sulfur on-road diesel and gasoline • Inputs from provincial and territorial governments and private industry have been incorporated into the forecast

22. Canadian Emission Projections (3) • “Control Case” includes: • Canadian Standards for PM and Ozone • Reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx • Canadian Acid Rain strategy • In both Base and Control, NH3 held constant in all years

23. Mexican Emission Projections • No known inventories of projected Mexican data • Most likely will hold constant in future years

24. Proposed Plan (To Work) • Stakeholder participation a must! • Nothing is better than local specific data • VISTAS working with our sources to best define activity and emissions in our area • Utilize other data (RPO/EPA/FLM) as available to aide in coordinated decisions • Where can we coordinate IMMEDIATELY or preface our plans to allow coordinated effort?