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LPS Applied Analytics: Trends in Mortgage and Housing

LPS Applied Analytics: Trends in Mortgage and Housing. Presented to the Mortgage Bankers Association of Jacksonville. August prepayment rates hit the highest levels since 2005. High LTV non-government originations are up over 75% YTD.

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LPS Applied Analytics: Trends in Mortgage and Housing

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  1. LPS Applied Analytics: Trends in Mortgage and Housing Presented to the Mortgage Bankers Association of Jacksonville

  2. August prepayment rates hit the highest levels since 2005

  3. High LTV non-government originations are up over 75% YTD

  4. In Florida, high LTV non-government originations have more than tripled

  5. High LTV prepayment rates in Florida are lower than national

  6. Fewer than 30% of 2007 and prior vintages remain active and current

  7. Despite historically low rates, origination activity is still limited

  8. Florida origination activity has increased over the last six months

  9. “30,000 foot view”: Delinquencies are improving, foreclosures still near highs Over 3 MM loan mods House prices drop 20% House prices peak Fed rate intervention

  10. From 2005 to 2009 the crisis spread nationwide, impacting all regions

  11. The State of the Union today: Regional improvementbut still trouble spots

  12. Non-judicial states have experienced greater improvement Non-Judicial: Down 31% from peak Washington, NJ and Vermont are still at historic highs Judicial: Down 13% from peak Few non-judicial states remain close to peak levels

  13. Even where improvement is evident, magnitude varies Total non-current in Lee County was 1.4x of Jacksonville MSA at the peak

  14. On average, Jacksonville modification rates have been higher than FL & US

  15. Foreclosure starts still outnumber sales by more than 2:1

  16. Florida foreclosure starts outnumber sales by almost 3:1 over last 12 months

  17. Foreclosure start activity has increased in judicial states

  18. First-time starts lowest since ’08; repeat foreclosure rate at new high

  19. 70% of FL foreclosure starts were “repeats”; first time at multi-year lows

  20. Foreclosure inventory in Florida has declined, but still extremely high

  21. The average loan in foreclosure is 622 days past due (ex FL, NY and NJ) Excluded from Average Florida = 932 New Jersey = 934 New York = 953

  22. Timelines are long nation-wide, but judicial states are 1.4x non-judicial

  23. Foreclosure timelines vary significantly within states Over 1 year timeline difference The average loan in foreclosure in Florida is over 2.5 years past due

  24. Foreclosure sale activity is driven by regional processes and restrictions

  25. Judicial and other legal actions have had significant effects on pipelines

  26. With more distressed homes on the market, price pressure may continue

  27. “30,000 foot view” (HPI Edition): Some signs of stabilization Collapse of non-agency market Home buyer tax credit expiration Easy credit, affordability products Fed rate intervention Long term trend?

  28. The FL bubble was muted in JAX; local home prices down more than US

  29. Even within zip codes price activityvaries significantly

  30. National REO and short sales prices are about 75% of non-distressed

  31. REO discounts have improved in several states

  32. REO discount in FL was lower than that of short sale for the first time

  33. Nationally, 18% of current loans remain under-water

  34. Negative equity and new problem loan correlation is clear by geography

  35. Relative price stability has supported improvement in new problem loans House prices peak House prices drop 20%

  36. Further house price declines could lead to more new problems

  37. Whatdata are out there? BORROWER LOAN PROPERTY LOAN LEVEL DATA PUBLIC RECORDS LOSS MIT HPI CREDIT BUREAU DATA McDash Loan Data + Modules

  38. LPS Loan Data (McDash)

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