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Meteorology 485

Meteorology 485. Long Range Forecasting Friday, January 23, 2004. Long Range Guidance. Numerical Models IRI – International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Columbia University (Palisades Campus) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) with forced SST

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Meteorology 485

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  1. Meteorology 485 Long Range Forecasting Friday, January 23, 2004

  2. Long Range Guidance • Numerical Models • IRI – International Research Institute for Climate Prediction • Columbia University (Palisades Campus) • Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) with forced SST • Four different AGCM are run with either one or two different SST’s • Each AGCM is run 10 times out to 9 months • Components: CCM3.2 , ECHAM3.6, NCEP-MRF9, NSIPP • SST: Each ocean basin initialized separately (PSST, ASST) See: http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/climate/fcst_dscrp.html/

  3. Models • IRI Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr, 2004

  4. Long Range Guidance • Numerical Models • Scripps – Scripps Institute of Oceanography : Experimental Climate Prediction Center • Associated with the University of California at San Diego (La Jolla) • Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Model in collaboration with Max Planck Institute for Meteo • Ocean GCM is HOPE2, better resolution of thermocline. See: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_HOME.html

  5. Models • Scripps Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr

  6. Long Range Guidance • NASA – NASAS Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project • Greenbelt, MD • Fully coupled global ocean-atmosphere-land model • Ocean Model – Poseidon V4 (0.3deg x 0.6deg) with 27 layers and IC from optimal I • Atmosphere Model – NSIPPv1 (2degx2.5deg) with 34 layers • Land Model – Mosaic LSM • 19 member Ensemble for 12 month forecasts - Six members perturb ocean only - Six members perturb atmosphere only - Six members perturb oceans with a single perturbed atmos - One member uses initial atmosphere from CDAS reanalysis http://janus.gsfc.nasa.gov/~pegion/nsipp/

  7. Models • NSIPP

  8. Long Range Guidance • CMB • Climate Modeling Branch (section within NCEP/EMC) in Washington, DC • Atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with NCEP’s SST forecasts using their ENSO Forecast System. • 20 member ensemble with differing initial conditions to predict up to 6 months • http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_forecast/

  9. Models • CMB

  10. Coming Soon • Statistical Long Range Forecast Models • Government and Institutes • International Forecast Centers • UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, Brazil, South Africa, Australia, Japan and Korea

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