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Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule

Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule. Yi-Hsin Lin 15 December 2011 16.781 Final Project. The Tarmac-Delay Rule. Response to series of highly publicized delays Valentine’s Day 2007: 28 flights with tarmac delays over 3 hours

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Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule

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  1. Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule Yi-Hsin Lin 15 December 2011 16.781 Final Project

  2. The Tarmac-Delay Rule • Response to series of highly publicized delays • Valentine’s Day 2007: 28 flights with tarmac delays over 3 hours • Tarmac delays of over three hours result in a fine of up to $27,500 per passenger • Requires airlines to provide food, water, working lavatories, and medical care if necessary to passengers for tarmac delays over two hours • Exceptions for safety, security, and air traffic control restrictions, but each case is reviewed by DOT • Rule went into effect on April 29, 2010

  3. First Fine: American Eagle • First fine was issued last month: to American Eagle for 15 flights delayed at ORD on arrival • ORD departures cancelled due to weather • No gates available for arriving flights • 608 passengers affected • Fined $900,000 • Fine was much less than $16.7 million max

  4. Tarmac delays over 3 hours

  5. Success! But it’s not that simple… • DOT says tarmac rule has been highly successful • Airlines and some analysts claim that the rule is worse for consumers • Increased cancellation rates • May 2009-April 2010: 102200 of 6417992 flights (1.6%) • May 2010-April 2011: 120401 of 6350073 flights (1.9%) • More unnecessary gate returns  Longer delays

  6. A Note on Datasets • Data comes from the BTS website (www.transtats.bts.gov) • Does not contain all US domestic flights, only major carriers • Data from 2007 through September 2011

  7. Monthly Tarmac Delays and Cancellation Rates 5/08-4/09: 1.7% 5/09-4/10: 1.6% 5/10-4/11: 1.9% Cancellation Rate (%) Tarmac delays over 3 hours

  8. Taxi-out Delays by Origin (2007)

  9. Monthly Delays and Cancellation Rates (JFK) 5/08-4/09: 2.8% 5/09-4/10: 2.6% 5/10-4/11: 3.2% Without 27 December 2010 snowstorm: 2.9% Cancellation Rate (%) Tarmac delays over 3 hours

  10. Daily Tarmac Delays and Cancellation Rates (JFK) June 2009 June 2011 Cancellation Rate (%) Tarmac delays over 3 hours

  11. Gate Return Statistics (JFK) Without 31 December 2009 snowstorm, 72.4%.

  12. Tarmac Times for Gate Returns (JFK) All gate returns Counts Gate returns resulting in departures Counts

  13. Conclusions • Drastic decrease in long tarmac delays • Increase in cancellation rate unclear • Few gate returns resulting in longer delays • DOT has been reasonable in enforcing the rule • Rule doesn’t solve underlying congestion problem Questions? Comments?

  14. Valentine’s Day 2007 • Massive snowstorm affecting the northeast • At JFK, 287 out of 336 departures cancelled (85.4%) • Of 49 remaining departures, 16 had taxi out times more than 3 hours • JetBlue flight 623 to HOU sat on tarmac for 7+ hours • 253 out of 335 arrivals cancelled (75.5%) • Of 82 remaining arrivals, 8 diverted and 12 had taxi in times more than 3 hours • JetBlue 850 from RSW sat on tarmac for 9+ hours • 1697 3+-hour tarmac delays in 2007 • 358 3+-hour tarmac delays at JFK

  15. Case Study: 26 June 2009vs. 9 June 2011 Friday, 26 June 2009, 20Z Thursday, 9 June 2011, 20Z

  16. Traffic Management Initiatives 26 June 2009 9 June 2011 1522: FCAA08, 20-2Z 1528: GDP, 20-3Z 2043: GS, till 22Z 2122: GS, extend till 23Z 2216: FCAA08, 20-3Z 2348: GDP, till 5Z 1625: FCAA05, 18-3Z 1628: FCAA08, 18-3Z 1831: GDP, 21-2Z 1857: GS, till 20Z 2004: GDP, till 3Z 2211: GS, till 23Z 2248: GS, extend till 0Z Times are in UTC = EST + 4.

  17. Case Study: 26 June 2009vs. 9 June 2011

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