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REMSAD SO 2 and Sulfate Predictions for the BRAVO High/Low Base Cases Michael G. Barna Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 10 October 2002. Today…. Recent History:. Nine Weeks Ago…
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REMSAD SO2 and Sulfate Predictions for the BRAVO High/Low Base CasesMichael G. BarnaCooperative Institute for Research in the AtmosphereColorado State UniversityFort Collins, CO10 October 2002
Today… Recent History: Nine Weeks Ago… • Problem discovered in REMSAD chemistry solver – crashed during stagnant conditions • Error found in US point source emissions
Base Case Emissions Simulation: • Two REMSAD “base case” simulations were run: • “high base case” - Carbon I/II at 241k tpa • “low base case” - Carbon I/II at 152k tpa • SO2 and Sulfate emissions reduced, but other pollutants unchanged
High Base Case SO2 Delta SO2 Low Base Case SO2 Change in Regional SO2 Concentrations: High Base Case SO2
High Base Case SO4 Low Base Case SO4 Delta SO4 Change in Regional SO4 Concentrations:
Big Bend NP: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:
Amistad: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:
McDonald: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:
Monahans: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:
Marathon: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:
Conclusions: • Tendency to over-predict SO2 concentrations, except during a few episodic periods • Sulfate concentrations generally in agreement with observations • Sulfate concentrations near BBNP not strongly influenced by change in Carbon I/II SO2/sulfate emissions • SO2 predictions using “low base” Carbon I/II emissions tend to be in better agreement with observations