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Geography of social vulnerability, environmental hazards and climate change (VulClim)

Geography of social vulnerability, environmental hazards and climate change (VulClim). Haakon Lein ,. Verdal: Flood, storm surge and sea level rise. Point of departure. ‘ Vulnerability of a place’

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Geography of social vulnerability, environmental hazards and climate change (VulClim)

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  1. Geography of social vulnerability, environmental hazards and climate change(VulClim) Haakon Lein, Department of Geography

  2. Department of Geography

  3. Department of Geography

  4. Verdal: Flood, storm surge and sea level rise Department of Geography

  5. Point of departure ‘Vulnerability of a place’ Cutter, S.; J.T. Mitchell; M. S. Scott. 2000. Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 90(4): 713–737. Department of Geography

  6. Biophysical hazards + Social vulnerability = Vulnerability of a place Department of Geography Cutter, 2000

  7. Modifications • Contextualise (Norway) • Add time (the future/climate change) Department of Geography

  8. Climate change Demo- graphic change Social and eco- nomic changes Department of Geography

  9. Department of Geography

  10. Social vulnerability Product of Social inequalities and Place inequalities Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) Cutter S L, Boroff, B J, Shirley W L, 2003, Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards, Social Science Quarterly, 84 (2): 242 – 261. Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the United States based on 1990 data County level  3,141 units Collected several variables which could act as indicators on social vulnerability Factor analysis (PCA): 42 variables  11 independent factors Additive model  summary score (SoVI) Mapping SoVI  identify most vulnerable counties Department of Geography

  11. Social Vulnerability Concepts and Metrics • PERCAP89 Per capita income • PCTHH7589 Percent of households earning more than $75,000, 1989 • PCTPOV90 Percent living in poverty, 1990 • PCTVOTE92 Vote cast for president, 1992 - percent voting for leading party (Democratic) Department of Geography

  12. Social Vulnerability Concepts and MetricsFrom Cutter et al (2003), Table 1 Socioeconomic status (wealth) Gender Race and ethnicity Age Rural/urban Education Population growth Medical services Social dependence … Department of Geography

  13. Kilde: http://www.cas.sc.edu/geog/hrl/sovi.html Department of Geography

  14. Social vulnerability index (SoVI) for Norway Department of Geography

  15. Figure 1. Social Vulnerability Index for Norwegian municipalities based on Cutter et al. (2003) variable list Department of Geography

  16. Figure 2. Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index for Norwegian municipalities Department of Geography

  17. Local SoVI Department of Geography

  18. Climate change Demo- graphic change Social and eco- nomic changes Department of Geography

  19. How to deal with the future? • Climate is obviously not the only thing that is changing... • Is it possible to say something meaningful about socio-economic changes in a 50-80 year perspective? How? • Local socio-economic scenarios? Department of Geography

  20. Growth Forever growth Forever young Global Local Forever green Welfare (environment) Local Scenarios Department of Geography

  21. Using existing scenarios: Some issues to be addressed Not dealing directly with climate change issues nor hazards- how to make more relevant? Cover a period up to 2020- we need scenarios up to 2050 or longer How to make a spatial interpretation, how to map the scenarios? How to identify quantifiable/measurable indicators? Department of Geography

  22. Department of Geography

  23. About the project Funded by The Research Council of Norway (NORKLIMA) & NTNU 2007-2011 3 PhD students + department staff + master students Cooperation with: Susan Cutter, Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina, International Centre for Geohazard (SFF) National and local agencies Department of Geography

  24. Department of Geography

  25. Holand, I, P Lujala,JK Rød (forthcomming): ‘Vulnerability of Norwegian Municipalities to Environmental Hazards’ Department of Geography

  26. Table 1 . Factors, factor labels, factor loadings, and factor sign adjustment for SoVINOR, Cutter et al. replication Department of Geography

  27. Table 2. Factors, factor labels, factor loadings, and factor sign adjustment for the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Department of Geography

  28. Table 3. Factors, factor labels, factor loadings, and factor sign adjustment for the Build Environment Vulnerability Department of Geography

  29. Figure 3. Built Environment Vulnerability Index for Norwegian municipalities Department of Geography

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