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Karl Henriksson Ulf Jonsson Swedish Defence Research Agency

Karl Henriksson Ulf Jonsson Swedish Defence Research Agency. Construction of a tool for economic analysis of force structures, and its use in the transformation of the Swedish Armed Forces. Context of the tool The tool it self Cross-road issue Basis of the tool Lessons Learned Conclusions.

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Karl Henriksson Ulf Jonsson Swedish Defence Research Agency

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  1. Karl HenrikssonUlf JonssonSwedish Defence Research Agency Construction of a tool for economic analysis of force structures,and its use in the transformationof the Swedish Armed Forces

  2. Context of the tool The tool it self Cross-road issue Basis of the tool Lessons Learned Conclusions Agenda

  3. Method - Long Term Planning Step 1 Armed Forces Structures Future Concepts and vision Legacy structure Step 2 Step 2 + 10 years Now + 20 years

  4. EBV - The Tool • EBV - Swedish acronym for “Economical Calculation Tool” • Spread sheet model • Big data base • Economical calculations of complete future Force Structures • Economical possibilities of implementation within the timeframe • Highlighting the important decisions during the period 2005-2007 • Operational use • Entire national infrastructure • Modelling of different manning provision solutions • Quick answers to big questions

  5. Cross-road issue Professional forces Conscription Full time employed soldiers

  6. Basis of the tool • Quick economic calculation of different Force Structures over time • The base for calculation is the land, sea and air units • Modelling different manning provisions • Modelling different infrastructure for training • Calculation of “phasing in” and “phasing out” units and equipment

  7. Phasing out Development Procurement Operation Phasing out Development Procurement Operation £ Alt 2 Level of appropriation Levelling the use of appropriation Roughly levelling the use of appropriations Year 4-6 Year 10-14 Year 15-19 Year 7-9 Year 1-3 £ Alt 1 Level of appropriation

  8. Lessons Learned - Pros General • One single computer model = Consistent calculations • MS Excel is flexible • “Common knowledge”. • Easy to make changes in the tool EBV • The tool is well suited for its purpose • The tool has been easy to use • Created wider awareness in the SwAF HQ of economical thinking

  9. Lessons Learned - Cons General • When constructing a model it is important to first find out • which data is readily available • what types of results are desired by decision-makers and the way to deliver the results. • Decide on the level of generalisation of the model and try to stick to it. • Organisational inexperience of conceptual modelling => poor acceptance • Don’t use the model outside its area of validity EBV • Risk of Force Structures design directly in the tool • Paradox: initial doubts => great enthusiasm => disapproval • Wrong expectations of the level of detail in the results of the tool

  10. Conclusions • A very useful tool • Figure out what types of results are desired by decision-makers • Use already existing data when constructing a model • Communicate what the model can and cannot be used for and don’t let it be used for anything else.

  11. karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Questions?

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