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Å sa S cott A ndersson Defence Research Agency NBC Defence (FOI) in Sweden

Å sa S cott A ndersson Defence Research Agency NBC Defence (FOI) in Sweden. &. PhD student at the Department of chemistry, E nvironmental chemistry , Umeå University in Sweden. E nvironment -A ccident -I ndex a planning tool for identification and ranking

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Å sa S cott A ndersson Defence Research Agency NBC Defence (FOI) in Sweden

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  1. Åsa Scott Andersson Defence Research Agency NBC Defence (FOI) in Sweden & PhD student at the Department of chemistry, Environmental chemistry,Umeå University in Sweden

  2. Environment-Accident-Index • a planning tool • for identification and ranking • of areas from an environmental risk • point of view

  3. Environment-Accident-Index • First proposed in 1995 • (FOA Rapport D—95-00099-4.9—SE) • A preventive planning tool • Investigation of environmental risks • Identification and ranking of different areas • Users: environmental authorities, rescue services • and industry

  4. The first version of EAI: Is calculated the following way: EAI =Tox * Am * [Con + Sol + Sur] Tox = Acute toxicity, LC50/EC50 (mg/l) Am = Stored/transported amount (tons) Con = Viscosity (cSt) Sol = Water solubility (weight-%) Sur = Properties of the surroundings

  5. Whatdoes EAI say? EAI: Further assessment: 1- 100 Hazard Analysis 100 - 500 Hazard Analysis + Introductory Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) > 500 HazardAnalysis + IntroductoryERA + Advanced ERA

  6. Toxicity to water living organisms Type of storage / transportation Toxicity Amount How severe environmental damage? E A I Leaning of groundwater surface Water solubility Type of soil Spreading properties of the surroundings Spreading properties of the chemical Distance to well, lake or watercourse Depth to groundwater surface Vapour pressure Viscosity Density

  7. EAI - Limitations: • Not long-term applications • Only one chemical at a time • Not explosions or accidents with release of gas into the air • Not applicable on a whole transport distance

  8. Research process 1. Collecting of data on chemical accidents 2. Selection of representative accidentsusingStatistical designandMultivariatemodelling (Principal Component Analysis) 3. Panel judgement of the selected accidents and interviews 4. Final modelling of results 5. Validation of new model

  9. 55 chemical accidents: occurred 1986-1999 Limitation: organic chemicals Data on surroundings Data on chemical properties Material:

  10. Vapour pressure (kPa) new Density (Kg/m3)new Viscosity (cSt) Water solubility (w-%) Toxicity Amount/Toxicity (L) new Distance to nearest well, lake or watercourse (m) Distance to groundwater surface (m) Slope of groundwater surface (3 classes) Hydraulic conductivity (m/day) new Porosity (%) new Variables: Chemical properties: Properties of the surroundings:

  11. PC2 Dataset PC3 PCA of dataset No: Chemical: CAS-no: Vp: n: D: m/Tox m: S Tox: DNW: DGS: K': n: LGS: w: 1 Kerosine/Jet fuel 8008-20-6 0.1 1.5 808 3.2E+09 10 0.1 3.1 6 2 1 55 1 2 Kerosine/Jet fuel 8008-20-6 0.1 1.5 808 7.3E+09 22.6 0.1 3.1 3 0.6 1 55 0.5 3 Kerosine/Jet fuel 8008-20-6 0.1 1.5 808 7.8E+09 24.2 0.1 3.1 15 1.5 3 35 1 4 Kerosine/Jet fuel 8008-20-6 0.1 1.5 880 1.3E+10 38.8 0.1 3.1 5 0.01 1 15 1 5 Petroleum liq 115-86-6 0.1 9.5 880 8.8E+08 88 0.1 100 5 0.5 1 15 1 6 Petroleum liq 8012-95-1 0.1 95 919 4.7E+05 0.047 0.1 100 17.5 2 1 15 0.1 31 19 7 Heating oil No5 64741-45-3 1 41 965 8.8E+09 483 0.1 55 10 10 3 33 1 8 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.3E+11 328 0.1 2.6 1 1.5 3 35 1 9 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 9.5E+09 24.6 0.1 2.6 100 5 3 35 1 2 10 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.6E+10 42.6 0.1 2.6 9 3 1 55 1 11 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 3.8E+09 9.84 0.1 2.6 50 2 2 35 0.5 51 12 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 3.2E+09 8.2 0.1 2.6 3 1.5 1 15 1 13 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.6E+09 4.2 0.1 2.6 15 4 1 15 1 14 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 5.0E+08 1.3 0.1 2.6 3 6 1 43 0.5 15 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 9.5E+09 24.6 0.1 2.6 5 0.2 1 15 1 42 30 9 16 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.4E+10 37 0.1 2.6 7 0.35 1 15 1 17 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.9E+10 49 0.1 2.6 15 2 2 35 1 3 47 41 1 18 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 9.2E+10 240 0.1 2.6 220 4.4 2 35 1 38 43 19 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.9E+08 0.5 0.1 2.6 600 0.01 3 33 1 20 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 4.9E+07 0.122 0.1 2.6 1600 3 1 15 1 21 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 5.0E+09 13.1 0.1 2.6 5 8 1 55 1 18 58 22 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.9E+09 4.9 0.1 2.6 1 3 1 43 1 25 49 54 23 23 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.3E+08 0.326 0.1 2.6 2000 6 1 43 0.1 26 24 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 9.5E+09 24.6 0.1 2.6 350 3 1 43 1 24 11 25 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 1.6E+12 4075 0.1 2.6 13 7.2 3 33 1 48 8 20 26 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 3.1E+08 0.8 0.1 2.6 40 2 2 35 1 17 57 0 37 27 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 4.7E+07 0.122 0.1 2.6 0.01 1 1 15 1 28 Dieselfuel/heating oil No1 68334-30-5 0.5 2.75 820 3.1E+09 8 0.1 2.6 17 13 1 46 1 29 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 3.4E+09 16.5 0.01 4.9 3 3 1 43 1 50 29 30 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 5.8E+09 28.5 0.01 4.9 25 0.01 2 35 1 10 31 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 7.8E+09 38.2 0.01 4.9 100 0.01 3 33 1 2 55 35 21 32 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 7.2E+09 35.3 0.01 4.9 2 16 1 43 1 44 28 33 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 1.5E+08 0.75 0.01 4.9 8 2 1 15 0.5 32 39 4 56 34 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 5.3E+09 26 0.01 4.9 0.01 12 1 15 1 35 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 7.2E+09 35.5 0.01 4.9 2 1.87 1 43 0.5 -1 33 40 53 36 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 2.4E+09 12 0.01 4.9 9 8 1 15 0.1 16 14 36 22 37 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 4.6E+09 22.5 0.01 4.9 200 6 1 15 1 13 15 38 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 7.2E+09 35.3 0.01 4.9 100 9.4 2 35 1 39 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 3.7E+09 18 0.01 4.9 7 2.6 1 15 1 40 Gas fuel 86290-81-5 70 1 750 6.9E+09 33.6 0.01 4.9 7 5 1 15 1 12 41 Methanol 67-56-1 12.8 0.8 790 2.7E+06 35 90 13200 125 33 1 55 1 42 Iso-propanol 67-63-0 4.2 3 790 7.9E+04 0.18 90 2285 300 2 2 35 1 45 43 Benzene 71-43-2 10.1 1 880 2.3E+11 1232 1.8 5.3 3 2 3 35 1 -2 44 Chlorobenzene 108-90-7 1.2 1 1110 2.1E+11 1000 0.05 4.7 30 2.3 1 15 1 45 Phenol 108-95-2 0.05 3.2 1070 2.7E+10 90 8 3.3 4 4.1 0.5 5 PC1 46 Methyl methacrylate 80-62-6 3.7 2.25 940 3.0E+08 47 1.5 159 6 4 1 55 1 47 n- Butylacetate 123-86-4 1.2 1 880 2.7E+08 4.8 0.007 18 25 23 3 33 0.5 48 Vinylacetate 108-05-4 12 1 930 1.7E+09 29.8 0.02 18 7 7.6 2 35 0.5 49 Styrene 100-42-5 0.6 0.9 910 6.6E+09 60 0.01 9.1 1 3.1 3 33 1 34 50 4-Chloro-m-cresol 59-50-7 2.25 1370 2.6E+05 0.002 0.001 7.6 200 1.5 1 15 0.5 51 Trichloroethylene 1979-01-06 7.7 0.9 1460 1.3E+08 2 0.1 16 30 7 3 35 1 27 52 DEHP 117-81-7 82.2 990 6.4E+06 3.2 0.1 500 30 1 3 33 1 53 Benzenesulphonic acid 98-11-3 2.25 1295 1.9E+08 1.04 90 5.5 15 0.5 54 Butylaldehyde 123-72-8 12 1 810 2.2E+08 4.1 7 19 35 3.2 1 55 0.5 55 Formic acid 64-18-6 4.3 1.5 1220 8.7E+07 6.1 90 70 30 3.2 1 15 0.5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 56 Glyphosate 38641-94-0 2.25 1170 1.8E+05 0.0157 90 86 2 16.5 1 43 1 57 Fluaziname 79622-59-6 2.25 1300 4.2E+07 0.0023 0.01 0.055 5 3 2 35 1 58 Metamitrone 41394-05-2 2.25 2.1E+05 0.021 0.2 101.7 100 4 1 55 1 3 PC:s 23 design Candidates 19 accidents 1: 29,32,33,34,35,36,39,40 2: 2,14,46,50,53,55,56 3: 4,12,15,16,44 4: 1,5,13,21,22,10,27,28,45 5: 37,38,47,48 6: 23,41,42,51,54,58 7: 8,25,30,31,43,49 8:3,9,11,17,18,19,20,24,26,57 9. 1,44,49 No: V1 V2 V3 Training set (10) 1 - - - 2 + - - = 3 - + - + 4 + + - + 5 - - + 6 + - + Validation set (9) 7 - + + 8 + + + 9 0 0 0 Overview Of TheMethod

  12. Environmental consequences • Panel judgement • (model systems with cells)

  13. Expertpaneljudgement • Expert panel selected among municipalities in Sweden (Environmental inspectors) • 18 municipalities are participating • Judgement of environmental consequences of the selected chemical accidents • Training set and validation set

  14. Judgementcategories • Fauna (macro and micro) land- and waterenv. • Flora (macro and micro) land- and waterenv. • Use of resources (land, water) • Technical installations • Outdoor life and recreation

  15. Further work • Further modelling: accidents – environmental consequences e.g. results from panel judgement • Building of the “final model” • Validation of model

  16. Publications: • Å.Scott, Environment-accident index: validation of a model, J. Hazard. Mater. 61(1998) 305-312 • Å. Scott, M. Tysklind, I. Fängmark,Selection of a representative set of chemical accidents from a complex data matrix for the development of environment-accident index,J. Hazard. Mater. A91 (2002) 63-80

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