Priorities for renewable energies and energy efficiency technologies by 2020

1. Priorities for renewable energies and energy efficiency technologies by 2020 Clemens SchneiderResearch Fellow Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures ETUI conference “Climate Change:An opportunity for social cooperation“ 29-30 March 2011Hotel Crowne Plaza, Brussels

2. Contents • 2020: mid-term landmark on the way to a low carbon society • Why dealing with technologies? • Criterions to identify relevant technologies • Technologies of energy supply • Energy efficiency technologies • Buildings • Electricity consumption • Transport • Technologies and cooperation: local action and acceptance • Example “Innovation City Ruhr“: a social laboratory Clemens Schneider

3. 2020:mid-term landmark on the way to a low carbon society • Aims for a 2020 economy: • binding targets for all sectors (radical CO2 cuts)(energy supply, industry, commerce, households, transport) • a more flexible energy supply relying on decentralized structures (on the way to CO2 neutrality) • usage of BAT (= best available technologies) concerning energy efficiency • taking the whole carbon footprint of products into account (“life cycle emissions“) Clemens Schneider

4. Economic instruments in Climate Policy and “technology neutrality”. So why dealing with technologies? • Economic instruments in Climate Policy and “technology neutrality” • Economic instruments are supposed to be “technology neutral”. • Neo-classical economic theory supposes that most carbon efficient technologies will be used. • BUT there are some limitations: • Deficits in cooperation (large and small groups) • Information barriers • External costs and benefits • Natural monopolies •  Markets neglect important options:centralized structures prevail. Clemens Schneider

5. Using revenues from ETS and green taxation to foster “decentral” technologies • Criterions to identify relevant technologies: • Risks in research and development • Security of supply and price risks • Lead times • Market potentials • Dependance on infrastructures • Cost efficiency • Path dependance • Potential to save energy • Climate protection potential • Value added and employment • Acceptance • Source: Fraunhofer ISI (2010), modified Clemens Schneider

6. CO2-Abatement potentials and costs Source: IPCC (2007) Clemens Schneider

7. Low carbon energy supply technologies • Central structures: • Offshore Wind (Atlantic & North Sea) • Water power (Norway) • Concentrated solar power (CSP) • [Coal power plants with Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)]  “Electricity highways“ needed: High Voltage Direct Current (HVCD) to connect Europe‘s • Decentralized structures • Photovoltaics • Onshore Wind • Local heat: Combined heat and power (natural gas or biomass fired)  “Smart grids” needed: intelligent demand and supply management to come to grips with volatile feed-in of renewable power Clemens Schneider

8. Energy supply - the vision 2020:decentralized and flexible on the way to climate neutrality • Combination of central and decentral elements Clemens Schneider

9. Energy efficiency technologies: demand side potentials Source: Wuppertal Institute (2006) Clemens Schneider

10. Energy efficiency technologies: buildings • Initial situation • Many actors involved • Low rates of refurbishment (1% in Germany) • In spite of rising energy prices and public co-financing shares of high efficient refurbishment remains low •  Cost acceptance of high efficient insulation appeared to be low • The vision 2020 • Local governments, local energy supplier(s) and house owners are implementing long term plans for refurbishment and heat supply of the buildings • Energy efficiency (i.e. mainly insulation) is priorized Clemens Schneider

11. Energy efficiency technologies: electricity demand • Efficiency potentials when using best available technologies (BAT): • Office equipment: LED (monitor lighting) and „thin client“ computers • Lighting (LED): 90% (long term) • Cooling & Refridgerating: 30% • Dish washers: up to 50%*) • Cloth washers: up to 50%*) • Cloth driers: up to 50% (using heat pumps) • Motors & pumps (≈ 30%) • Energy savings of 20% until 2020 are economical • But: all households involved (very many actors) • *) when connected to central warm water supply Clemens Schneider

12. Low carbon technologies in Transport • Technologies to foster system efficiency of transport • Extension and more efficient use (telematics) of rail (and light rail) infrastructures to support modal shift to railways • Efficient drive trains: • Internal combustion engines (ICE): downsizing • Electrification of drive trains: recuperation of braking energy, use of renewable electricity in plug-in-hybrid vehicles (PHEV) • Light-weight construction • Information & communication technology to support “smart mobility” (using the most efficient transport mode available) • preconditions for major changes in mobility have to be organized locally • Excursus: Air traffic will be part of EU Emission Trading System from 2013 on. However, airplanes are long term investments (≈ 40 years) and will thus be replaced only slowly in the fleets. Clemens Schneider

13. Conclusions Technologies and cooperation:local action and acceptancCe • Central structures with large scale technologies may be organized easier top down but the impact of the used technologies is locally concentrated and they are more vulnerable to path dependance • Decentral low carbon energy technology solutions are mostly well-proven • Strategic behaviour in carbon markets is less likely when there is a plenitude of players • Cities are identified to be the adequate level to organize stable and sustainable energy supply according to specific local demands:not self-reliant but self-determined Clemens Schneider

14. Example “Innovation City Ruhr“: a “social laboratory“ • Public private partnership to try out fast diffusion of energy technologies in a part of the German Ruhr Area (former centre of German coal & steel production) • Scope: 50,000 inhabitants • Effective solutions shall be transferable to other cities in the area and abroad • City of Bottrop has been chosen in a competion process • Aim to reduce CO2-emissions by 50% until 2020. • Core areas of action: • Refurbishment • Energy efficiency in commerce and industry • Public Transport and electric mobility • Decentral energy supply Clemens Schneider

15. Example “Innovation City Ruhr“: a social laboratory Clemens Schneider

16. Thank You. www.wupperinst.org

17. 3 Backup

18. 3 Insgesamt ist von einem Investitionsbedarf von ungefähr € 2,5 Mrd. auszugehen. Theoretische Modellrechung CO2-Reduktionspotential & Investitionsbedarf CO2-Ausstoß & Reduktions-potential (in t p.a.) -51% 200.0001) Heute Energie- effizienz eMobilität Dezentrale Erzeugung Schöner Wohnen 2020 Investitions-kosten (in Mio. €) 2.500 1.3002) 250 50 900 Energie- effizienz eMobilität Dezentrale Erzeugung Schöner Wohnen Gesamt Eingesetzte Produkte (Auswahl) • Fassaden für Gewerbe- und Industriehallen • Plexiglas im Bau • Messtechnik • Ladestationen für Elektroautos • Karosseriebau • Elektrobusse • Wärmepumpensysteme • Solare Brauchwasser-erwärmung • Wärme auf Rädern • Simulationsmodelle 1) Inkl. CO2-Reduktion von 0,3% durch Smart Grid Technologie 2) Ohne infrastrukturelle Maßnahmen Quelle: ILS; TRC; Initiativkreis Ruhr; A.T. Kearney 29 March 2011 Clemens Schneider