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2009 Job Summit John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury

Join John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury, in exploring strategies for post-recession recovery and sustainable growth. Analyzing data on productivity, regulation, workforce, demographics, and spending changes, this summit aims to position New Zealand advantageously in the global economic landscape.

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2009 Job Summit John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury

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  1. 2009 Job SummitJohn Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury

  2. Objectives • To get out of recession as quickly as possible • To limit the impact on people • For New Zealand to be better off long-term and well placed to take advantage of world recovery

  3. Productivity growth Growth in GDP per capita 2001-2006 4 3 2 1 0 Italy Japan OECD France Poland Ireland Austria Mexico Iceland Finland Canada Belgium Portugal Australia Switzerland New Zealand United States Czech Republic United Kingdom

  4. Regulation 1998 2007 United Kingdom United States United States United Kingdom Canada Canada 4th New Zealand Iceland Australia Netherlands Denmark Denmark Ireland Spain Netherlands Japan Iceland Norway Norway Finland Sweden Australia Germany 12th New Zealand Finland Switzerland Belgium Sweden Japan Germany Austria Italy Portugal Austria Hungary Hungary Korea Belgium Mexico France Switzerland Korea 0 1 2 3 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

  5. Workforce - Education Employed Unemployed Post School Qualification 57% No Qualification 20% No Qualification 23% Post School Qualification 38% School Qualification 23% School Qualification 29%

  6. Workforce - Ethnicity Employed Unemployed Pacific 4% Pacific 8% Other 11% Maori 10% Maori 19% Other 18% Pakeha 75% Pakeha 55%

  7. Operating Balance OBEGAL to GDP % GDP 5% 4% 3% 2% Historical Years Forecast Years Projected Years 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20 21/22 Fiscal Year

  8. Debt GSID to GDP % GDP 80% Historical Years Forecast Years Projected Years 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20 21/22 Fiscal Year

  9. Demographics Ratio of those aged 65+ to 15-64 0.6 2009 0.5 0.4 Ratio to population aged 15-64 0.3 0.2 0.1 Older (65+) Projection 0.0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source: Statistics New Zealand

  10. Spending changes – 2008 to 2050 GDP % 16 2008 14 2050 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Finance costs NZ Super Health Source: New Zealand long-term fiscal model

  11. The way forward Do protect the vulnerable – not the status quo Don’t pass on a burden of debt Do prepare for the future – skills and innovation

  12. 2009 Job SummitJohn Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury

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