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Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA

Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA. Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency. Workshop on emissions projection 6-8 September 2004, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. History of MARKAL use for emission projections in energy sector. Started in 1995

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Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA

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  1. Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency Workshop on emissions projection6-8 September 2004, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn

  2. History of MARKAL use for emission projections in energy sector • Started in 1995 • 2nd National Communication • 3rd National Communication • Projections for SO2, VOC, NOx • and now …

  3. Modelling approach • Bottom-up rich technology optimization model • Spread of action between supply and demand • Emissions taxes and constraints • Estimate system costs • Sensitivity analyses

  4. Overview of model Useful energy demand Menu of energy technologies production conversion transmission utilization Optimal least cost mix of technologies Primary fuel prices Emission constraints

  5. Issues (1) • Reporting • Generic tables (results, assumptions etc.) • Problems • Emission factors for new fuels • Energy useful demand projections (how to link with macroeconomic forecast) • Possibility to deal with uncertainty with stochastic analyzes • Discrepancy between structure of energy balance and inventory (ex. off-road)

  6. Issues (2) Notwithstanding to resent development in CC policy field • National system isn’t yet established • Lack of coordination between involved institutions • Lack of financial capacity

  7. GHG emission forecast in energy sector Gg

  8. Forecast of GDP

  9. CO2 emissions in energy sector, Ggdifferent growth rates for useful energy demand Annual growth of (1999-2034) Scenario DM1 DM2 DM4 DM6 Useful energy demand 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% Electricity consumption 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8%

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