National Human Development Report Nigeria 2008-2009

1. National Human Development ReportNigeria 2008-2009 Achieving Growth with Equity

2. Presentation Outline • Focus and Approach • Methodology • Overview and Key Messages • Recommendations

3. Focus and Approach • Three essential points • Danger of focusing on growth as an end in itself • Growth alone will not help achieve Vision 20:2020 + MDGs • The win-win choice is to opt for growth with equity • What is growth with equity? • Income as a means to human development not an end • Simple but powerful idea: gains in human development increase labour productivity, the main asset of the poor. This, in turn, increases the output of goods and services. Higher output means a bigger economy with more resources to invest in human development. A virtuous cycle, thus, takes effect.

4. Methodology • Findings of studies on growth, equity and poverty • Utilized both national and state level indicators: • State-level index of economic activity, as a proxy measure of GDP • State level Human Development Index (HDI), poverty and inequality data – first in Nigeria • Updated economy wide Input-Output tables for economic analysis • Prepared by Nigerian experts plus NBS • Guided by an advisory board composed of government, civil society, academics and UNDP

5. Overview and Key Messages Good recent macroeconomic performance: • significant growth in recent years - per capita income crossed the $1,000 mark in 2006 • Expansion in agriculture as main driver of overall growth • From low bases other sectors have experienced expansion as well – e.g. communication and banking • But there has been no structural transformation

6. Overview and Key Messages But inequality has remained high: • One of the highest in the world (0.49) • 65% of assets in the hands of 20% of population • 1st Quintile – 1.43% • 2nd Quintile – 4.11% • 3rd Quintile – 12.82% • 4th Quintile – 17.04% • 5th Quintile – 64.78%

7. Overview and Key Messages Poverty is still widespread: prevalence has declined but… Extreme poverty has risen Number of poor people has risen Driver of growth, agriculture, accounts for 67% of the poor Human development has improved but more slowly than peers

8. State HDIs reflect Country HDI Overview and Key Messages…

9. Overview and Key Messages • Disconnect between growth, poverty reduction and human development • Why? The NHDR argues that… • High inequality limits opportunity for poor people to benefit from growth • Nature and content of growth (low employment elasticity, that is, employment not keeping pace with growth expansion of labour force) • Structure of the economy still unchanged unlike in other emerging economies (dominance of primary production, weak farm-factory linkage, disconnect between finance and real sector) • Slow progress in social indicators • Underlying institutional weakness

10. Recommendations • An ambitious but common sense agenda of action • Discipline, consistency and continuity of priorities and policies over the long-term will be key • Create an environment for high levels of investment and growth: infrastructure (rural and rural-to-urban), spending efficiency and effectiveness, macro stability, institutional reform and financial sector intermediation • Make growth pro-poor and inclusive: human capital development (basic education, primary health care and nutrition, safe water and sanitation), vocational education, safety nets and investment in rural areas • Achieve effective multi-tier cooperation in government: commitment and engagement by States and LGAs is key

11. Thank You.