A.K.M. Saiful Islam

1. Stakeholder Workshop in BUET, Dhaka on 8 March 2012 High-resolution Regional Climate Change Information for Bangladesh to inform Impacts assessments, Vulnerability indicators and Adaptation policies A.K.M. Saiful Islam Principal Investigator & Coordinator, Climate Change Study Cell Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)

2. Background • Due to many factors such as poverty, unique geographical location, population density etc. make this nation more vulnerable to climate change than any other countries of the world. • Climate risks now need to be integrated into national development projects and strategies. • Knowledge on climate change impacts could help taking adaptation measures into national policy and planning processes.

3. Climate Change Study Cell • IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008. • The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh. Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Management Launching Ceremony On March 08, 2009

4. Activities • Conducting capacity building training in collaboration with Met office funded by DFID on Regional Climate change Modeling using PRECIS on 14-18 February 2010 and follow-up workshop on 1-3 June 2010.

5. Capacity Building Training •  More than 20 participants from various relevant departments of BUET and other relevant organizations such as- • Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), • Department of Environment, Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), • Natural Resource Studies (CNRS), • Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), • Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), • Flood Forecasting and Warning Center of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), • Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) etc. • Department of Environment (DOE) • Due to limitation of the space and facilities, it was not possible to accommodate other relevant organizations.

6. Climate Research • A research project consists of 14 components was funded by Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MOEF) under the climate change trust fund of the Govt. • This 2 years project is ongoing which is entitled as “Institutional Strengthening of Climate Change Study Cell at BUET for Knowledge Generation and Human Resource Development”

7. Research Components • Development of Flood Hazard and Risk maps with Effect of Climate Change Scenario • Change Review of Warning System for Climatic Disasters • Study on Residual Flow in the Bay of Bengal considering future Climate Change induced Hydro-Meteorological Scenarios • Adaptation Strategies of GO and NGOs Combating Climate Change Impacts: A study on Perception of Communities in the Coastal Areas • Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh: A Multi-Sector Regional Analysis • Improving Energy Efficiency and Emission Characteristics of Biomass Cooking Stoves by Incorporating Beneficial Aspects of Different Kilns • Impact of Climate Induced Disasters on Gender • A Techno-Economic Assessment of Algae Biofuel Production in Bangladesh • Importance of Green Chemistry in the Synthesis of Nanomaterials, Supramolecules and Heterocyclic Compounds through Metal Mediated Reactions. • Promotion of Zero/Low energy Built environment concept and practice by establishing a Multidisciplinary Centre: for knowledge generation and dissemination, through planning, design and development using Low Energy Sustainable methods for creating Built Environment

8. Need of Climate Modeling • Climate Change modeling in Regional level is one of the tools which can help to predict possible future climate change scenarios for the nation. • There is a need for Upazila level high-resolution climate information, taking into account various uncertainties in climate projections for decision making

9. Objectives • To generate probabilistic climate change information at 25km resolution for administrative regions of Bangladesh for three time slices into future. • To prepare, from these model runs, the user-relevant and policy oriented climate change information suitable for decision makers in Bangladesh.

10. Objectives • To demonstrate the usefulness of the probabilistic climate projections at local level, the impacts on world heritage site the Sundarbans will be investigated. • Create awareness of this project and release a mapping tool containing the key climate change information for Administrative regions of Bangladesh

11. Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh using PRECIS • PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET. • Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3). • LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100.

12. Topography of Experiment Domain

13. Scenarios and Models

14. Key outcomes of the project • High resolution climate change information for Bangladesh. • Two case studies- • A Case study on impact of climate change on the Sundarbans ecosystems to demonstrate usefulness of the high resolution RCM information • A case study on An Assessment of Present and Future Changes of Hydrological Cycle of Haor Basin Area • Mapping tool for displaying climate change information at the Upazilla level.

15. Objectives of this workshop • Create national awareness about this research project. • Gather information from the stakeholders regarding their needs and priorities of climate change information. • Possible future plan of using this high resolution data for combating climate related disasters through their organizations.

16. Thank you