Turbulence Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) Status/Update

1. TurbulenceWeather Accident Prevention (WxAP)Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) Status/Update James F. Watson Level 3 Dpty,TPAWS Feb 6-7, 2002

2. Aviation Safety Program Organization Aviation Safety Program Office 1.0 Mike Lewis Government/IndustryProgram Leadership Team Technical Integration 1.1 Vince Schultz (LaRC) Level 1- Program Single Aircraft Accident Prevention 2.3 John White (LaRC) Weather Accident Prevention 2.4 Shari Nadell (GRC) System-Wide Accident Prevention 2.2 Dave Foyle (ARC) Accident Mitigation 2.5 Doug Rohn (GRC) Synthetic Vision 2.6 Dan Baize (LaRC) Aviation System Monitoring & Modeling 2.1 Yuri Gawdiak (ARC) Level 2- Projects Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) 2.4.1 Paul Stough (LaRC) Weather Information Communication (WINCOMM) 2.4.2 Gus Martzaklis (GRC) Turbulence Detection & Mitigation (TDAM) 2.4.3 Rod Bogue (DFRC) Aircraft Icing (Base Program) Level 3- Elements -- Out-of-date/Been replaced --

3. Turbulence/WxAP/AvSP Status • Since ATDS#3 Workshop, {OKC, 22-May-01} there have been several organizational changes within the AvSP. • Personnel • Level-1; S. Morello replaced M. Lewis • Level-2; several replacements within the six projects; • Gus Martzaklis replaced Shari Nadell • Organization • Overall Level-2 thru 4 re-planning within WxAP (Jul-Aug-01) • Level-3; Turbulence Prediction & Warning Systems (TPAWS) replaced Turbulence Detection & Mitigation (TDAM)

4. TPAWS Priorities & Organization • FY02 TPAWS Budget/Guideline • Smallest amount in the FY00-04 plan; FY02 is “bottom of V” profile • Mentioned during ATDS telecons since Workshop#3 • FAA&NASA alternative funding discussions • Additional “ear-mark” awarded last week • FY02 Technical Priorities from Re-planning • Certification Methodology and validated “tools” • Radar Systems flight experiments, with resultant analyses and conclusions (TRL=6+) • In-situ Systems flight experiments, with resultant analyses in support of certification

5. TPAWS Priorities & Organization (2) • Organization • Level-3 has budget, milestones, and related reporting responsibilities; systems integration role • Level-4 Researcher & PI • Total responsibility for technical items within specific area • Most Level-4 areas have designated PI to be responsible for flight experiments and/or simulations • “Researcher Paradise” model; total focus on technical contributions and co-ordination

6. Certification ActivitiesStatus/UpdateATDS - TPAWS

7. Certification Methodology Activities • Last Workshop#3, OKC; May 22-24, 2001 • Action item list • Telecons • Discussed action items list • Determined what was in FY01-02 plans • Certification activities added to TPAWS FY02 milestones list; budget-priority conflict • Workshops/activities transferred from Lvl-2 to Lvl-3 • Within TPAWS, “tiger team” developed Certification Methodology Chart (25-Sep-01) • Cert-Tiger Team was “re-engaged” about mid-Nov-01, after 9-11 event delay, and NASA budget delay

8. Certification Methodology • 1) Turbulence Events/Scenarios • Enough events? • Domain size/number of scatterers • Roles of von Karman and cloud models • V&V of cloud model • Model reflectivity vs radar reflectivity • Time evolution? • 2) Radar Simulation • Phase modulation? • ADWRS / other v&v • Radar scenarios (see description of “Radar Truth field” output) • 3) Radar Algorithm* • NASA standard algorithm • Moment estimate field on radar grid. • Load estimate field on radar grid. wind field reflectivity I & Q *Vendor equipment/ products will replace this block • 4) Aircraft Specific Test Criteria • Weight • Type • Speed Estimated loads on radar grid wind altitude • 5) Aircraft “Truth” Fields • Domain size (1, 2, 3-D) • Technique for producing truth • Aircraft type/configuration; generic vs. actual* • errors due to parameter uncertainty (e.g., weight) • *NASA task 2 as defined at OKC meeting 05/01 • 6) Comparative Analysis & Statistics • Flight deck issues • Polar to Cartesian conversion • Hit/miss scoring rules Estimated loads on Wx model grid 25-Sept-01

9. AvSP/WxAP/Turbulence “project” Operational/Functional Attributes Technology to reduce turbulence-related injuries by 25-50%. Existing PWS-radar or similar system with “Turbulence mode” functioning above 20Kft altitude, “cruise” flight phase. Airborne sensor/system which will provide 90% probability of detecting severe convective and clear air turbulence 30-120 seconds before encounter. Upon occurrence of detection within the existing flight path, the pilot actions will be alerting cabin occupants (FAs and passengers) and possibly avoiding the airspace (change course). Cabin crew/FAs response depends upon cabin state (meal-carts/epqt, cruise, ascend, descent) with primary emphasis on people getting “buckled into a seat”. Radar reflectivity g.t.e. 15dBZ ?? How constrains the “systems performance”??

10. Cert-Team Milestones(mid-Nov-01) • Complete/distribute Flight 191-06 Weather Model; one-of-four of certification set (box1) • Complete a concept-proving integration of the Wx-model/radar simulator/algorithm (box1-3) • Continue analyses/determination of minimal quantity-type of a/c hazard tables (box4) • Demonstrate an integrated certification “tool-set” for boxes 1-3 based upon 757 and Flight 191-06 (28 Feb estimate)

11. Cert-Team Milestones (2) • Complete/distribute Dickerson Wx Model • Develop strategy and plans for implementing boxes 5&6 • Systems Engr support to FAA A-C document