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South Central Pennsylvania Housing Recovery Summit April 29, 2014 - York, PA

South Central Pennsylvania Housing Recovery Summit April 29, 2014 - York, PA A Region in Transition: Recognizing Demographic Changes and their Implications. Center for Rural Pennsylvania. Legislative research agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly ( Act 16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009)

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South Central Pennsylvania Housing Recovery Summit April 29, 2014 - York, PA

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  1. South Central Pennsylvania Housing Recovery Summit April 29, 2014 - York, PA A Region in Transition: Recognizing Demographic Changes and their Implications

  2. Center for Rural Pennsylvania Legislative research agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Act 16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009) Mandates • Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions. • Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.

  3. Center’s Database • Pennsylvania’s most comprehensive database on rural trends and conditions • Grants program “feeds” the database • Data available on Center’s website or via email

  4. 2040 Population Projections: Data Sources • Projections were developed by Pennsylvania State Data Center in 2013 • Projections are based on the demographic cohort component model • Base population, Census 2010 • Group quarters populations are held constant • Applied national fertility and survival rates to Pennsylvania • Projections are just that– projections • Useful window to understanding and preparing for change

  5. Cohort Component Model

  6. Pennsylvania’s Rural and Urban Population, 1950 to 2040 (projected) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  7. Population in South Central Region,1950 to 2040 (projected) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  8. Rate of Population Change in South Central Region 1950 to 2040 (projected) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  9. Population Change, 1980 to 2010 Change in Population, 1980 to 2010 and 2010 to 2040 (projected) Population Change, 2010 to 2040 Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  10. 1970 South Central Region Age CohortsBlue = % Pop. MalesYellow = % Pop. FemalesRed = Baby Boomers, Born 1946-64 2040 (proj) 2010 Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  11. Number of Youth and Senior Citizens in Pennsylvania and South Central Region 1950 to 2040 (projected) Pennsylvania (Statewide) South Central Pennsylvania Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  12. Age Dependency Ratio, 1960 to 2040 (proj.)(# Persons Age <20 + Persons Age 65+)/(Persons Age 20 to 64) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  13. 2010 Age Dependency Ratios, 2010 and 2040 (projected) 2040 (projected) *Age Dependency Ratio (# Persons <20 + # Persons 65+) (# Persons 20 to 64) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  14. Births and Deaths, 1970 to 2040 (projected) Pennsylvania Births and Deaths South Central Region Births and Deaths Data sources: PA Dept. of Health and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  15. Natural Population Change* by County, 2010 to 2040 (projected) *Natural Change = # Births - # Deaths Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  16. In-Migration by County, 2010 to 2040 (projected) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  17. Projected Natural Change and Net Migration, 2010 to 2040 Pennsylvania South Central Region Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  18. Rural and Urban Counties, 2010 and 2040 (projected) 2010 Statewide Population Density = 284 Persons per Square Mile 2040 (proj.) Statewide Population Density = 316 Persons per Square Mile Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  19. # New Housing Permits per 1,000 Population, 1990-2013 • Slower growth in new housing • Shift in housing demand from large family homes to smaller homes • Revitalization of housing in older boroughs and cities • With lower demand, home prices could stabilize. • Challenge of keeping senior citizens in their homes longer Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  20. Types of Households in South Central Region, 1980 to 2010 • Smaller households. • Fewer households with children. • Potential increased number of multi-generational households. • Likely increase in single person households. Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  21. # Working Age Adults (20-64) in South Central Region 1950 - 2040 (proj.) • Potential labor shortages for some businesses • More older persons in workforce • Stagnate or lower income tax revenues • Increase demand for businesses to serve an older population Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Pennsylvania State Data Center

  22. Enrollment Changes in Enrollment 2010 to 2020 (proj.) • No initial reduction in school taxes • Potential school building closings in some districts– new building in other districts Data Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education

  23. Persons 85+ Years Old in South Central Region, 1960 to 2040 (Projected) Increased demand for: Home health care services Transportation services Assisted living quarters Medical specialists focusing on geriatric needs Quiet maternity wards, busy geriatric units Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

  24. Number of Persons Employed in Nonprofit Organization, 2008-12 • Volunteer organizations may find it difficult to recruit members (firefighters, youth soccer coaches, etc.) • Fewer youth available to participate in organizations (Scouts, baseball, 4-H, etc.) • Shift in citizens’ needs– youth reading programs at the library versus Meals-on-Wheels. • With fewer persons working, community organizations may see decline in revenues (United Way, churches, etc.) • Transfer of wealth from generation to generation Data Source: 2008-12 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

  25. Thank You! Barry L. Denk, Director The Center for Rural Pennsylvania 625 Forster Street, Room 902 Harrisburg, PA 17120 717.787.9555 denkb@rural.palegislature.us www.rural.palegislature.us

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