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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 21, 2013

Going Up for the Rebound. On Behalf of Champion Realty. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 21, 2013. First Pitch. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2013*. Source: International Monetary Fund. * 2012-2013 data are projections.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 21, 2013

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  1. Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of Champion Realty By: AnirbanBasu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 21, 2013

  2. First Pitch

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2013* Source: International Monetary Fund *2012-2013 data are projections

  4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2012 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

  5. Debt by Country2011 Source: IMF; BIS; Bloomberg L.P.

  6. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  7. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  8. S&P Select Sector Performance2012 Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

  9. Third Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

  10. Red Card/Pink Slip

  11. Recession Watchas of January 2013 Source: Moody’s Economy

  12. Industrial ProductionFebruary 2001 through December 2012 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  13. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2012Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  14. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through December 2012 Dec. 2012: +155K Between Dec. 2011 and Dec. 2012, the nation gained 1,835,000 jobs. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  15. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorDecember 2012 v. December 2011 All told 1,835K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  16. Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)December 2012 v. December 2011Absolute Change MD Total: +21.1K; +0.8% US Total (SA): +1,835K; +1.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2012 v. December 2011Absolute Change Baltimore Total: +11.7K; +0.9% MD Total (NSA): +22.2K; +0.9% US Total (SA): +1,835K; +1.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2012 v. December 2011Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +13.9K; +0.6% US Total (SA): +1,835K; +1.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2012 v. December 2011 Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.4%

  20. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.8%

  21. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)November 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  22. MD County Unemployment RatesNovember 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  23. Pad Save

  24. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through December 2012 Source: Freddie Mac

  25. Existing Median Home Sale Prices – Maryland & United StatesJanuary 2009 through November 2012 Source: National Association of Realtors and Maryland Association of Realtors 12-month % change: Maryland: 6.9%, US: 10.1%

  26. Housing Inventory by Suburban MD December 2012 v. December 2011 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Dec. 2011: 7.2 months; Dec. 2012: 5.0 months

  27. Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction December 2012 v. December 2011 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Dec. 2011: 7.2 months; Dec. 2012: 5.0 months

  28. Housing Unit Sales in Select Counties – December Comparisons Source: Maryland Association of Realtors

  29. Housing Median Sales Price in Select Counties – December Comparisons Source: Maryland Association of Realtors

  30. Home Sales for Seven Largest Maryland CountiesDecember 2012 v. December 2011 Percent Change Source: MRIS/RBI

  31. Home Building Permitsfor Select Maryland CountiesYTD2012 Q3 v. YTD 2011 Q3 Percent Change Source: Maryland Data Center Ranked by total permits.

  32. Put me in, Coach

  33. Conference Board Consumer Confidence2005 – December 2012 Source: Conference Board

  34. U.S. Retail and Food Service SalesJanuary 2002 through December 2012 Source: Census Bureau

  35. U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store December 2012 v. December 2011 Source: International Council of Shopping Centers

  36. National Vehicle Sales June 2004 through December 2012 (SAAR) Source: Autodata Corp.

  37. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through November 2012 Source: Conference Board

  38. Fourth Quarter • Economy slowed markedly during last year’s fourth quarter; • First half of 2013 also shaping up to be quite soft, with recessionary risks elevated over the next several weeks; • Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; • Many headwinds remain and the nascent recovery could easily falter; • Leading construction indicators have turned positive; and • Latter part of this year could be better than many think …

  39. Thank You • You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com • If you appreciate this type of information and would like regular updates, please see our newsletter service at www.spgtrend.com • Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) • Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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