INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Natasa Markovska Senior Scientific Collaborator

1. INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENTNatasa MarkovskaSenior Scientific Collaborator Research Center for Energy, Informatics and MaterialsMacedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts ICEIM-MANU French-Serbian European Summer University: Renewable Energy Sources and Environment – Multidisciplinary Aspect Vrnjacka Banja, 17-24 October

2. Contents • Introduction • Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development 2.1. Present Sets 2.2. Risk-Related ISED • Proposed Improvements • Mind ISED 4.1. Cognitive 4.2. Emotional 4.3. Moral • Greenhouse Gases Indicator in Macedonian Conditions 5.1. Pressure 5.2. Response: Mitigation Measures • Conclusions

3. Introduction: Basic energy-related principle for sustainability • Supplying enough energy to meet the needs, while minimizing the negative impact on the environment which is associated not only to the energy production but also to the energy use. This means • economic management of the existing depletive energy resources, which simultaneously are the most intensive polluters • progressive breakthrough of the inherently sustainable renewable energy sources (RES) as “clean technologies” in this sector, intertwined with the energy efficiency practices and technologies.

4. EU Sustainable Development Strategy, June 2006 First key challenge: Climate Change and Clean Energy Overall Objective: To limit climate change and its costs and negative effects to society and the environment Operational objectives and targets • Kyoto Protocol commitments of the EU-15 and most EU-25 to targets for reducing GHG by 2008 – 2012, whereby the EU-15 target is for an 8% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels. Aiming for a global surface average temperature not to rise by more than 2.C compared to the pre-industrial level. • Energy policy should be consistent with the objectives of security of supply, competitiveness and environmental sustainability, in the spirit of the Energy Policy for Europe launched in March 2006 by the European Council. Energy policy is crucial when tackling the challenge of climate change.

5. • Adaptation to, and mitigation of, climate change should be integrated in all relevant European policies. • By 2010 12% of energy consumption, on average, and 21% of electricity consumption, as a common but differentiated target, should be met by renewable sources, considering raising their share to 15% by 2015. • By 2010 5.75% of transport fuel should consist of biofuels, as an indicative target, (Directive 2003/30/EC), considering raising their proportion to 8% by 2015. • Reaching an overall saving of 9% of final energy consumption over 9 years until 2017 as indicated by the Energy End-use Efficiency and Energy Services Directive.

6. 2. Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development2.1. Present Sets Definition: Indicators of Sustainable Development -Quantifiable parameters to measure and monitor changes (progress or degradation) in respect to SD, thus signaling challenges or alarms.Pressure (Driving Force)–State–Response (PSR) (National Research Council, 1999)

7. International Projects on Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development (ISED) Participants: IAEA, IEA, EC, NEA/OECD, UN-WPISD, UN-DESA, UNESCO and 15 Member states (1999-2001)  Full set of 41 ISED Core set of 23 ISED

8. Core ISED distilled by IAEA-IEA (2001)

9. 2.2. RR ISED Pollutants: 12. Quantities of air pollutant emissions (SO2, NOx, particulates, CO2, VOC) 13. Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas: SO2, NOX, suspended particulates, ozone 14. Quantities of greenhouse gas emissions Wastes: 15. Generation of solid waste 16. Accumulated quantity of solid wastes to be managed 17. Generation of radioactive waste 18. Accumulated quantity of radioactive wastes awaiting disposal Fatalities: 20. Fatalities due to accidents with breakdown by fuel chains

10. Missing RR ISED (a) Fatalities (i.e. man-days lost) due to normal operation of the plant Standard health risk values for different energy systems (I-Inhaber, P-Pop-Jordanov, B-Brikhofer, K-Kollas and Papazoglow) (Pop-Jordanova and Pop-Jordanov, 1996)

11. (b) Indicators to account for the occupational entropy Modern economy: Shift from material to mental  Knowledge based economy (society) But better (Pop-Jordanov, 2003): Wisdom or even Mind based economy (society) where: Wisdom  knowledge+morality (UNESCO) Mind  cognition+emotion+morality

12. The rise in entropy of the world economy system ceases to be attributable only to physical variables, but increasingly incorporates the threats to the mental resources and capacities. Occupational or mental entropy therefore, is the newly introduced concept addressing the disorders and degradation caused by • Mind Agents • Cognitive: Information overflow • Emotional: Occupational stress • Moral: Corruption pressure • (Pop-Jordanov, Markovska et al, 2004)

13. 3. Proposed Improvements Integrated risk of energy technologies (Markovska, Pop-Jordanova et al, 2004)

14. 4. Mind ISED The current ISED sets quantify issues related only to material and energy resources and their impacts, without concerns on mental resources and capacities, involved in the processes of energy generation and use. Possible improvement: Introduction of Mind Indicators (Pop-Jordanov, 2003), as additional RR ISED

15. 4.1. Cognitive Indicators • Information Overflow Organizational Attention Deficit • Symptoms of organizational attention deficit disorder (Davenport and Beck, 2001): • - An increased likelihood of missing key • information when making decisions • - Diminished time for reflection on anything but • simple information transactions such as e-mail • and voice mail • - Difficulty in holding others attention • - Decreased ability to focus when necessary

16. PSR model for RR cognitive ISED

17. Response: Biofeedback “Electronic measuring, processing and feeding back of information about one's own inner activity, to help learning voluntary control of symptoms (e.g. attention deficit or stress)” EEG or EDR biofeedback training (adjustment of brain-wave frequencies by operant conditioning or change of skin conductivity)  Decreased theta/beta ratio of brain waves or Increased electrodermal resistance

18. Mean theta/beta ratio as attention deficit indicator (EEG biofeedback treatment, 12 patients, 40 sessions) (Pop-Jordanova et al, 2002; Pop-Jordanova et al, 2005))

19. 4.2. Emotional Indicators PSR model for RR emotional ISED

20. Pressure Indicator: Occupational stress Inverse causality model in risk assessment Internal (psychological) agent → functional disorder → material or tissue harm

21. State Indicator: Incidence of psychosomatic diseases due to normal operation of power plants (as percentage of the total number of patients in the group) PU - Peptic ulcer AH - Arterial hypertension C - Colitis N - Neurodermatitis A - Asthma (Pop-Jordanova and Pop-Jordanov, 1996)

22. Response: Application of EDR biofeedback training as a stress abating technique Electric resistance [kΩ/10] Time [min] (Pop-Jordanova, 1999)

23. 4.3. Moral Indicators Detrimental contracts Introduce corruption Corruption Improper employment depressurizing pressure mechanisms Lost of human capital PSR model for RR moral ISED

24. 5. GHG Indicator in Macedonian Conditions 5.1 Pressure and State Energy sector is the highest contributor to GHG emissions (70 % of total emissions) Electricity production: 73 % of total energy GHG emissions; Heat production 17%; Transport 10% Global warming, negative health effects, affected species, increase in sea level, land use change 5.2. Response: Mitigation Measures(ICEIM-MANU, 2004)

25. Economic and environmental effectiveness of the RES technologies

26. Marginal cost of the prospective RES implementation • The most cost effective option: geothermal energy in greenhouses and hotels.However, relatively low potential for GHG emissions reduction; • Most expensive option:PVs connected to electric grid; • The total achievable reduction (if all considered RES technologies are implemented) in 2010 is estimated to be 0.34 Mt CO2-eq, which is 1.88% of the baseline emissions.

27. Marginal cost abatement curve of the RES technologies for the year 2010

28. Compared to the other abatement technologies in the energy sector, that are energy efficiency technologies, the RES technologies appear to be less attractive from both, environmental as well as economical aspect. Nevertheless, contributing to sustainable energy development, the RES technologies should be a part of the national energy policy. In that sense, the removal of the limiting barriers to RES implementation, should be a great challenge to all stakeholders: government, industry, households and small businesses, academic sector, NGOs, international organizations and donors.

29. 6. Conclusions • The introduced occupational entropy and the related risks represent a potential new theme within the social dimension of sustainable energy development.

30. There is a gap in the existing lists of • indicators, as a result of overlooking the • negentropic effects of modern economy • shift towards non-material resources and • capacities.

31. The concept of integrated risks • comprising mind indicators • (cognitive, emotional and moral) • help filling this gap.

32. The proposed risk-related indicators and the corresponding response measures are shown to be of particular importance for efficient assessment and management of risks related to various energy technologies.

33. As to the application of the ISED in Macedonian conditions, the GHG indicator is a good example of conforming the national anlyses with the internationally adopted PSR concept. More or less, similar analyses are needed for the rest of the ISED.

34. REFERENCES Davenport, H.T. and Beck, C. J. (2001), The Attention Economy, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts. IAEA-IEA (2001), Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development, Joint IAEA and IEA Contribution to CSD-9, New York. ICEIM-MANU (2004), Technology Needs Assessment in the Energy Sector, UNDP-GEF/Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, Skopje Markovska, N., Pop-Jordanova, N., Pop-Jordanov, J. (2004), Energy Technologies and Integrated Risks, “Energy and Culture”, (Ed. B. Dooley) pp. 300-320 National Research Council, (1999), Our Common Journey, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

35. Pop-Jordanov, J. (2003), Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development from a Negentropic Perspective, Original Paper, Clean Techn. Environ. Policy 5, pp. 273-278; Published also in (2004): Technological Choices for Sustainability, (Sikdar, S.K., Glavic, P., Jain, R., Editors), Springer, pp. 305-316. Pop-Jordanov, J., Markovska, N., Pop-Jordanova, N., Simoska, S. (2004), Occupational Entropy and Mind Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development, International Journal of Green Energy, Vol.1, No.3, pp. 1-9. Pop-Jordanova, N. (1999), Electrodermal Response Based Biofeedback in Pediatric Patients, Paediatria Croatica, 3, pp. 117-121.

36. Pop-Jordanova, N. and Pop-Jordanov, J. (1996), Psychosomatic and Substitution Effects: Comparative Health Risks from Electricity Generation, Electricity, Health and Environment, IAEA, Vienna, pp.177-187. Pop-Jordanova, N. and Pop-Jordanov, J. (2002), Psychophysiological Comorbidity and Computerized Biofeedback, Artificial Organs, 25, 5, pp. 429-433 Pop-Jordanova, N., Zorcec, T., Markovska-Simoska S. (2005), Neurofeedback Treatment of Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, MASA Contributions, Sec. Biol. Med. Sci., XXVI 1, pp. 71-80.