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CONS449C The Politics of Science George Hoberg

CONS449C The Politics of Science George Hoberg. A vision of clean energy system.

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CONS449C The Politics of Science George Hoberg

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  1. CONS449CThe Politics of ScienceGeorge Hoberg

  2. A vision of clean energy system “We suggest producing all new energy with [water, wind, and solar] by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today” Jacobson, M.Z., Delucchi, M.A., Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials. Energy Policy (2010),

  3. Victor’s 3 central political challenges • Very deep cuts to GHG emissions are required • Long residence time of CO2 in atmosphere – given rate of emissions stock is hard to reverse • Costs immediate, benefits uncertain and distant in time • “time inconsistency problem” • Global nature of problem creates spatial inconsistency: local costs, global benefits

  4. Hoberg’s version: Why climate action is so hard politically

  5. Victor’s 3 myths about policy process • Scientist’s myth: scientific research can determine the safe level of global warming • Environmentalist’s myth: global warming is a typical environmental problem • Engineer’s myth: once cheaper new technologies are available, they will be adopted

  6. Mooney • Deficit Model: “You just don’t understand” • more information will resolve conflicts and produce appropriate policy response • Members of the public strain their responses to science controversies through their value systems • Social science helps explain how this works

  7. Motivated reasoning (Mooney) • motivated cognition: unconscious tendency to fit processing of information to conclusions that suit some end or goal • biased information search: seeking out (or disproportionally attending to) evidence that is congruent rather than incongruent with the motivating goal • biased assimilation: crediting and discrediting evidence selectively in patterns that promote rather than frustrate the goal • identity-protective cognition: reacting dismissively to information the acceptance of which would experience dissonance or anxiety.  • Daniel Kahan, “What Is Motivated Reasoning and How Does It Work?, Science and Religion Today May 4, 2011.

  8. “We may think we’re being scientists, but we’re actually being lawyers” Psychologist Jonathan Haidt

  9. Implications • “Scientific controversies” are frequently more about underlying value conflicts • When you hear a “conservative” challenging climate science, it is usually because of their concern about the political implications of action • How do you make progress in such a polarized world?

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