information-gathering conformism

1. information-gathering conformism

2. What you didn’t know • Francisco Gil-White • Psychology • University of Pennsylvania

3. Social learning • Who will you acquire ideas and behaviors from? • If your parent was the only individual from the previous generation that you had access to, that would be the best you could do.

4. Emergent phenomenon • If you have access to other members of the previous generation • Then you can take advantage of an emergent phenomenon Convergence:Members of the previous generation will tend to converge on the same adaptive solution. • So you can just copy the most common solution (better than copying at random).

5. Why do people converge on adaptive solutions? • Two reasons: • If it is not too hard to find the best solution on your own, then most people will find it via individual learning. Or, • If a person can recognize a better solution when they see it in somebody else, then most people will get it via social learning.

6. Individual learning (assume a small set of possible solutions)

7. Convergence thru individual learning

8. Social learning…

9. …also leads to convergence

10. Therefore… • If you are a member of the next generation, it makes sense to have a preference for the most common meme, because usually the most common meme, is the best one available. • Meme: idea or behavior that is transmissible through social learning. • Who’s a member of the next generation? Everybody, at one point.

11. norm-conformism

12. A social interaction is a ‘game’ • You are a ‘player’ • You enter into an interaction with another ‘player’ • You pay some costs in order to play • At the very least, time and energy. • You play with a particular ‘strategy’ • And there are potential ‘payoffs’. • Different strategies have different payoffs.

13. Problems of coordination • Any social game is rife with problems of coordination. • If you and I attempt to play a social game together, but • Our signaling systems are different • We have different expectations for the same moves in the game • We think we are playing different games • Then the costs of our interaction will increase

14. Interactional norms • The games of social life. . . • Hosting a guest • Making a promise, contract. . . • Shaming and being shamed • Greeting • Marrying, raising a child, divorcing • Paying, forgiving a debt • How to joke, kid around

15. A A A A B A A A A B People should be norm-conformists • Assume some variation in norms • In the simplest model, say, 80% have normA, and 20% normB. • You are a new member of the group. Which norm should you adopt? • If you adopt A, you can coordinate with 80% of the group.

16. Prestige-biased transmission The Jordan Effect

17. Michael Jordan

18. Companies want him • Companies selling all sorts of things… • phone service • perfume (?!) • you name it • …think that Jordan can help them sell these things. • Why? • Because Jordan has prestige, and people want to do what the prestigious do.

19. Copy those with better information • Good idea. • Much better to choose an above-average model than a random model. • But learning benefits from the cooperation of the model. • So it is adaptive to induce it. • And so you kiss up.

20. The old arguments apply here… • Finding out who has better information requires costly individual learning. • But conforming to the judgments of others about who has better information is cheap and easy. • Since those with above-average info in the previous generation will have more kisser-uppers, naïve entrants can use this information to choose their first models.

21. The combined effect of prestige and conformism • Think of high-school fashions. • Torn jeans, etc. • How do fashion trends get started, how do they remain stable for periods of time?

22. Propaganda The individual, and the state

23. What is propaganda? • What is it? • The institutionalized production of lies. • Who produces it? • Anybody with an interest that might be derailed by the truth. • What kinds of governments will produce propaganda? • Any government. • That’s why we need a free press.

24. Propaganda is meme technology • A propagandist is trying to put a meme in your head. • The only way to protect yourself from the propagandist is to be aware. • Why? Because the propagandist is a memeticist. • He pays attention to the things that make memes successful. • If you don’t also have this knowledge, you are unprotected.

25. What is the ideal propaganda system? • If people have prestige bias? • Use “experts” • People who are “independent analysts” of X or Y (when X or Y is being discussed). • If people have conformity bias? • Make sure that many “independent voices” say the same thing. • Make sure that people don’t know you control the independent voices.

26. What is the ideal propaganda system? • The ideal propaganda system. . . . . . is the ‘free press’!!! • If you can corrupt the free press without people knowing this, you’ve won. Mmm….

27. Who is Slobodan Milosevic? • There are two Milosevices • The Media Milosevic • i.e. the propaganda Milosevic • the Real Milosevic • Some of you may be familiar with the Media Milosevic. • We shall now compare him to the Real Milosevic.

28. First, some background • In 1989 Milosevic gave a speech before several hundred thousand Serbs in Kosovo Field, at the 600 anniversary of a battle that the Serbs lost against the Turks. • We shall take a look at how the “free press” reported this speech.

29. Media Milosevic, Real Milosevic • “In Gazimestan, Milosevic announced that he would also launch a war against the other peoples of Yugoslavia.” • Balkan Report, 2 July 1999, Volume 3, Number 26 • “he openly threaten[ed] force to hold the six-republic federation together” • Milosevic on Trial: Fall of a Pariah"; Newspaper Publishing PLC, Independent on Sunday (London); July 1, 2001.

30. Media Milosevic, Real Milosevic • “Equal and harmonious relations among Yugoslav peoples are a necessary condition for the existence of Yugoslavia and for it to find its way out of the crisis. . . Equal and united people can above all become a part of the civilization toward which mankind is moving. If we cannot be at the head of the column leading to such a civilization, there is certainly no need for us to be at is tail.” • BBC and US government translation of the speech!

31. Media Milosevic, Real Milosevic • And here, 10 years ago this month, the Yugoslav President, Mr Slobodan Milosevic, made his name telling a crowd of 500,000 Serbs, "Serbia will never abandon Kosovo". • The Irish Times; June 16, 1999, CITY EDITION; SECTION: WORLD NEWS; CRISIS IN THE BALKANS; Pg. 13 • But the words “Serbia will never abandon Kosovo” do NOT appear in the text of the speech!

32. Media Milosevic, Real Milosevic • It was a stirringly virulent nationalist speech he made in Kosovo, in 1989, harking back to the Serb Prince Lazar’s suicidally brave battle against the Turks a mere six centuries ago… • June 5th 1999, The Economist • Today, it is difficult to say what is the historical truth about the Battle of Kosovo and what is legend. Today this is no longer important. Oppressed by pain and filled with hope, the people used to remember and to forget, as, after all, all people in the world do, and it was ashamed of treachery and glorified heroism. . . The answers to those questions will be constantly sought by science and the people. • From the BBC and US government translations!!

33. Media Milosevic, Real Milosevic • “…it was on St. Vitus' Day, 1989, thatMilosevic whipped a million Serbs into a nationalist frenzyin the speech that capped his ascent to power. • TIME International, July 9, 2001 v158 i1 p18+ • “In a fervent speech before a million Serbs, he galvanized the nationalist passions that two years later fueled the Balkan conflict.” • The New York Times, July 28, 1996, Sunday, Late Edition - Final, Section 1; Page 10; Column 1; Foreign Desk, 1384 words

34. Media Milosevic, Real Milosevic • Nine years ago today, Milosevic's fiery speech here to a million angry Serbs was a rallying cry for nationalism and boosted his popularity enough to make him the country's uncontested leader. • The Washington Post, June 29, 1998, Monday, Final Edition, A SECTION; Pg. A10, 354 words.

35. Media Milosevic, Real Milosevic “…unity in Serbia will bring prosperity to the Serbian people in Serbia and each one of its citizens, irrespective of his national or religious affiliation… Serbia has never had only Serbs living in it. Today, more than in the past, members of other peoples and nationalities also live in it. This is not a disadvantage for Serbia. I am truly convinced that it is its advantage. National composition of almost all countries in the world today, particularly developed ones, has also been changing in this direction. Citizens of different nationalities, religions, and races have been living together more and more frequently and more and more successfully… The only differences one can and should allow in socialism are between hard working people and idlers and between honest people and dishonest people. Therefore, all people in Serbia who live from their own work, honestly, respecting other people and other nations, are in their own republic.”

36. They are lying • How do we know they are lying? • Well, the speech was reported accurately on the day it was given. It was only years later, when the US was getting ready to bomb Yugoslavia, that it was misrepresented.

37. How they reported at the time… • Addressing the crowd, Milosevic said that whenever they were able to the Serbs had helped others to liberate themselves, and they had never used the advantage of their being a large nation against others or for themselves, Tanjug reported. He added that Yugoslavia was a multi-national community which could survive providing there was full equality for all the nations living in it. • BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, June 29, 1989, Thursday, SECTION: Part 2 Eastern Europe; 2. EASTERN EUROPE.

38. How they reported at the time… …he talked of mutual tolerance, 'building a rich and democratic society' and ending the discord which had, he said, led to Serbia's defeat here by the Turks six centuries ago. 'There is no more appropriate place than this field of Kosovo to say that accord and harmony in Serbia are vital to the prosperity of the Serbs and of all other citizens living in Serbia, regardless of their nationality or religion,' he said. Mutual tolerance and co- operation were also sine qua non for Yugoslavia: 'Harmony and relations on the basis of equality among Yugoslavia's people are a precondition for its existence, for overcoming the crisis.‘ • The Independent, June 29 1989, Thursday, Foreign News ; Pg. 10, 654 words, Milosevic carries off the battle honours, From EDWARD STEEN and MARCUS TANNER in Kosovo Polje

39. What really happened in Yugoslavia For an analysis of how the media covered the 1989 speech that Milosevic delivered in Kosovo, visit: http://emperors-clothes.com/milo/gw.htm For more articles by me about Yugoslavia, visit: http://www.psych.upenn.edu/%7Efjgil/articles.htm#yugo For more Emperor’s Clothes articles about Yugoslavia, visit: http://emperors-clothes.com/yugo.htm

40. Is US foreign policy anti-Nazi or pro-Nazi? A partial view (there is so much stuff...)

41. What ‘everybody’ knows • That US military intelligence helped many Nazis escape to freedom, using the so-called ‘rat lines,’ in order to use them as intelligence assets in the cold war. • This included some of the worst war criminals, who led cozy lives in the US, at the expense of the US taxpayer. • We are talking about people with the blood of millions of Jewish, Russian, Serbian, and Roma (Gypsy) civilians on their hands (among others).

42. What ‘everybody’ knows • However, what ‘everybody’ knows is false, in a sense, because the truth is much worse than that. • The US did not import a few captured Nazi war criminals in order to use them as intelligence assets. • The US absorbed almost the entire Nazi war criminal organization, and out of that created US intelligence and parts of the US military (e.g. special forces)

43. Main source • The main source for what you will hear today is this book: • Christopher Simpson (1988) Blowback: The first full account of American’s recruitment of Nazis, and its disastrous consequences on our domestic and foreign policy. New York: Weidenfeld & Nicolson. • The rights to this book were bought by someone who took it out of print... • Simpson sources include many declassified documents made publicly available through the Freedom of Information Act.

44. The Klaus Barbie scandal • “In 1971 Klaus Barbie was positively identified by Serge and Beatte Klarsfeld (a husband-wife team of Nazi hunters) in Bolivia, but the rightist Bolivian government refused to extradite Barbie.... Meanwhile, the conservative French government of the 1970’s had enough Vichy collaborators in its ranks to want to avoid having Barbie back in France pointing his finger at ministers and declaring, “Hey, I know that guy, he helped me during the war.” It was only in 1983 that Barbie, left unprotected by the rise of a moderate leftist government in Bolivia and the ascension of the leftist Mitterand administration in France, was deported to France.” [Source: Trial of Klaus Barbie Homepage http://members.aol.com/voyl/barbie/kbbio.htm]

45. The Klaus Barbie scandal • Francois Mitterrand was a highly placed collaborator in the Nazi government in WWII Frace. • “Shrouded in half-truths and rumors for nearly a half century, President Francois Mitterrand’s role in the pro-Nazi Vichy regime has been brought to light in a widely acclaimed book published this week.”– The Associated Press, September 3, 1994.FOR THE FULL AP ARTICLE, VISIT:http://emperors-clothes.com/gilwhite/alija2.htm#_ftn19 • This book: Pean, Pierre (1994) Une Jeunesse Francaise: Francois Miterrand. Paris: Fayard • And what did this book document?

46. Excerpts from AP • “The young Mitterrand was an ardent follower of collaborationist leader Phillipe Petain [i.e. the biggest Nazi in France], and believed in the ‘national revolution’ that begat the strict, anti-Jewish laws of 1940-41. As early as 1935, Mitterrand participated in an anti-foreigner rally in Paris.” • “After the French defeat of 1940, Mitterrand joined the ultranationalist ‘Legion des Combattants’ (Fighter’s Legion) which later became the feared militia that relentlessly hunted Jews and Resistance fighters.” • “Yes, Mitterrand had close ties with ‘La Cagoule,’ an outlawed extreme-right group that sought to overthrow the republic, and yes, he never repudiated his friendships with some of its leaders.”

47. Excerpts from AP • “At 26, Mitterrand also received the ‘francisque,’ Vichy’s highest award, from Petain. He published articles in Petainist magazines that also carried rabidly anti-Semitic diatribes.” • “And when he joined the Resistance in 1943 – not earlier as he long maintained – he did it whithout repudiating his Vichy past, its ideology, or his friends, Pean writes.” • “ ‘Francois Mitterrand does not seem embarrassed by his past,’ Pean was quoted as saying in an interview this week in Paris Match magazine.” • “Also on record for the first time is Mitterrand’s friendship with Rene Bousquet, Vichy’s police chief who was responsible for hte deprtation of Jewish children.”

48. What have we learned? • That the French rightist government of the 1970s was full of people who had been Vichy collaborators [i.e. full of Nazis who tried as hard as they could to exterminate all of the Jews in France] • And the “socialist” government that followed had for president one of the top Nazis of the Vichy regime: Francois Mitterrand. • (Did the Nazis lose the war?) • So when Barbie was tried in France, he was among friends. Friends who helped make sure that nobody would find out that Barbie had not been the only Nazi war criminal to have been recruited by the US.

49. The Ryan Report • Meanwhile, the US was doing the same: trying to cover up that it had recruited many other Nazis. • This attempted cover-up was called the Ryan Report, for Allan Ryan, its author. • Ryan was supposed to be a Nazi hunter employed by the US Justice Department after the war. He was tasked to do an investigation because nine congressmen had written President Reagan: • “...urging him to personally order an investigation that would, quote, ‘once and for all make clear the United States position on Nazi war criminals and whether US agencies knowingly or unknowingly provided protection for Barbie and others.” – ABC-TV News, March 7, 1983. • Ryan’s ‘investigation’ ‘concluded’ that, yes, the US had dealt with Barbie, but he was the only one.

50. In fact, however... • US military intelligence recruited Reinhardt Gehlen and his entire organization. • Gehlen was “Hitler’s most senior military intelligence officer on the eastern front.” • In other words, Gehlen was directly responsible for the torture and death of several million Jews and many millions of Russian civilians. • That is a very big deal, but it’s just the tip of the iceberg. • (All of this documented in Christopher Simpson’s Blowback,cited earlier)