Gilad Safier

1. Prepared by DHV MED on behalf of EcoPeace/ Friends of the Earth Middle East Roadmap for the Rehabilitation of the Lower Jordan River Gilad Safier Gilad Safier November 2011 August 2011

2. Water quantities and quality today • Represents an average year • Future prediction for 30 years (2011-2041) • Including climate change, Population growth, changes in agricultural consumption, Approved plans Agenda

3. Timeframe: • Hydrological year starts at October 1st • Monthly Resolution • Hydrological data from 1996-2010 • One average year • Calculates: • Water flows (m3/month) • Chlorides(mg/L) Current AccountsModel Scope How to meet the Environmental flows?

4. GLOWA Model built in WEAP Current AccountsThe WEAP Model • Reaches • Water Sources • Water consumers • Hydrometric Stations • Quality Samples • Drainage Basins • Dams • Fishponds • Groundwater • …

5. Assumptions regarding salinity: • Fixed salinity of all water sources throughout the year • Effect of evaporation on salinity in the river itself is neglected • Runoff salinity is 50 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from irrigation is 800 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from saline irrigation is1500 mg/L • Salinity of Israeli Sewage is 350 mg/L • Salinity of incoming groundwater is 1625 mg/L • … Current Accounts - Calibration

6. Jordan River Natural Flows

7. Top 5 contributors: • EmeqHamaayanot – 26 MCM; • SWC - 19 MCM; • Groundwater – 18 MCM; • Nahal Harod – 13 MCM; • Nahal Tavor – 8 MCM • Rough annual balance: • About 108 MCM enter the LJR • 20 MCM are consumed • 12 MCM evaporate • Annual flow at Bezeq is 76 MCM Current AccountsResults

8. Zero Scenario Business As Usual 2011-2041

9. Zero Scenario- Assumptions 2 most important assumptions

10. Zero Scenario – Climate Change

11. Zero ScenarioWater level in the Kinneret

12. Zero ScenarioAnnual Flows 400 69

13. Zero ScenarioMonthly Flows – Period C

14. Zero Scenario Extreme drought

15. Zero ScenarioConclusions • Next 30 years can be split into 3 periods • Next decade when the Sea of Galilee is still low • Transition period when the Sea of Galilee is high but flows downstream are negligible • Return of overflows to the LJR, albeit not in historical magnitude • Overall improvement in flows and quality, especially in period C: • Still be less than 10% of historical flows • Environmental goals are not met • Salinity wise, the river will be split at the confluence with Harod • Effect of overspills from the Sea of Galilee will be limited to a few months

16. Reintroduction Scenario Zero Scenario + reintroduction 2011-2041

17. Reintroduction Scenario Measures

18. Reintroduction ScenarioWater level in the Kinneret 1.3 m

19. Reintroduction Period C averages

20. Reintroduction ScenarioNet costs & lost revenues • 370 million for dealing with the SWC and its brine. • 1,300 million to decrease flow in the NWC. • 100 million to transfer effluents from the Kishon Water Works. • 730 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the LJR basin. • 970 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the UJR basin. • Possibility to pump 40 MCM/Yr from the river for saline irrigation at Emeq Hamaayanot – revenues of 600 million NIS • Downstream Bezeq Stream – water can be used for saline irrigation up until Adam Bridge

21. Reintroduction ScenarioEffectiveness of measures

22. The condition of the Jordan River today is grim with only 3% of the historical flow. • The situation will somewhat improve over the next decades but not enough. • Salinity-wise the Jordan River will be split at Harod stream. • Releasing 125 MCM/Yr from the Sea of Galilee will be sustainable within 10-15 years • Partial restoration of the Jordan River can be achieved at an expense/lost revenues of 3.4 billion NIS over the next 30 years Conclusions

23. Thank you for listening Gilad Safier M.Sc in Hydroinformatics 054-9444118 gilad@dhvmed.com