Has the left-right divide become obsolete in EU politics? David Amiel

1. Has the left-right divide become obsolete in EU politics?David Amiel

2. 1. The traditionalleft-right divideiscollapsing in European countries • Recent and spectaculary results should be read in light of a decades-old collapse of traditional right and left parties Electoral results of Europe’s major conservative parties (Pierre Martin, Crise mondiale et systèmes partisans, 2018, Sciences Po Presses)

3. 1. The traditionalleft-right divideiscollapsing in European countries • Recent and spectaculary results should be read in light of a decades-old collapse of traditional right and left parties Electoral results of Europe’s major social democratic parties (Pierre Martin, Crise mondiale et systèmes partisans, 2018, Sciences Po Presses)

4. 2. The causes of the collapse rundeep • A structural change calls for structural explanations • The traditional issues underlying the left/right divide are less relevant • Divisions about capitalism lost much of their intensity • Right-wing parties do not intend on dismantling the Welfare state • Left-wing parties have accepted a globalized market economy • Divisions about individual rights lost much of their intensity • Right-wing parties have adopted much of those that were once pioneered by the left (e.g. gay marriage) • Left-wing parties run short of mobilizing issues in that dimension • In the meantime, left and right parties turned a blind eye to the new challenges that arose • territorial inequalities, labor market polarization, multiculturalism, environment crisis, etc.

5. 2. The causes of the collapse rundeep • This blindness itself has root causes that need to be tackled • Political causes • Inertia of parties’ structuration leading to within-party divisions being sometimes more important than between-party divisions • Sociological causes • Excessive professionalisation : parties became smaller clubs as memberships to mass organizations declined • Excessive technocratisation : parties became « managers of the state » instead of providing a political direction to society • Ideological causes • Naiveté towards the globalization process in all its dimensions (economic, demographic, cultural) • This iswhatpopulism, through the « take back control » creed, got right. Doesitmeanthatpopulistmovementsprovide for a credible alternative?

6. 3. Where are weheading? • Populism is a symptome of the massive failure of the left/right divide • It becomes, in many countries, one of the two main political actors • M5S/Lega in Italy, FN in France, « Brexiters » in the UK... • It is an attitude more than an ideology • It provides a coherent narrative for the failure of established parties • Betrayal of the « people » by groups that do not belong to the community (the elites, the rich, the migrants...) • It does not provide for a coherent plaftorm • It can be an asset (e.g. ability to forge unexpected coalitions, lack of accountability by lack of clear objectives) • It can also be a liability (e.g. never-ending escalation once in power) • The situation has become highly unstable • Usual explanatory variables of voting behaviour lose ground towards more individualistic (e.g. psychological) explanations • Lower cost of entry to electoral competition (or social mobilization) leads to a much quicker « disruptions » of established movements than before

7. 3. Where are weheading? • Progressivism? Defending the ideals of “liberal democracy” while taking into account the failures and naiveté of old left/right parties • It requires « taking back control » by reinforcing political powers at all levels, which questions the role played by the EU... • People do not believe that nation states alone would offer more protection in globalization but they do not believe either that EU as it goes will • ...and which in turn requires seing the EU as a strategic power within globalization (rather than an internal European project for managing relations between the continent’s various actors) • It can neither be interpreted in terms of left vs. right nor only in terms of more vs. less Europe • How it will be taken into account by the various European movements is still a major unknown

8. 3. Where are weheading? • The European malaise comesprimarilyfrom a lack of control on the major changes induced by globalization in oursocieties • To thatextent, the European Union has become the « gordianknot » of this malaise • EU politicswill have an impact on politics in the EU to an extentthat has never been seenbefore.