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Experimental Inflow and Storage Forecasts Portal

Experimental Inflow and Storage Forecasts Portal. Harminder Singh Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering State Climate Office of NC. Presentation Outline. Introduction and Objectives Inflow Forecasting Model Storage Forecasting Model Inflow and Storage Portal - Overview

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Experimental Inflow and Storage Forecasts Portal

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  1. Experimental Inflow and Storage Forecasts Portal Harminder Singh Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering State Climate Office of NC

  2. Presentation Outline • Introduction and Objectives • Inflow Forecasting Model • Storage Forecasting Model • Inflow and Storage Portal - Overview • Inflow Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Storage Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Conclusion and Future Work Philpott Falls Kerr Scott Jordan SF Catawba Rocky Creek

  3. Presentation Outline • Introduction and Objectives • Inflow Forecasting Model • Storage Forecasting Model • Inflow and Storage Portal • Inflow Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Storage Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Conclusion and Future Work

  4. Need for Inflow and Storage Forecasts • Need of Inflow and Storage Forecasts • Recent Increase in Demand – Urbanization • Demand induced droughts even under normal inflow variability • Streamflow Forecasts and Water Management • Daily to Weekly time scale – Flooding, Peak power generation • Monthly to Seasonal Time Scales – Allocation and Firm Power • Provide Inflow and Storage forecasts for Reservoirs in the Southeast US • Inflow and Storage Forecasts Portal • Portal Overview and Skill Assessment

  5. Inflow Forecasts - Challenges • Monthly to Seasonal Inflows • Monthly to Seasonal Climate over the watershed • Current Basin Storage – Soil Moisture and Ground water • Challenges in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting • Climate Forecasts – Needs to be downscaled • Limited Basin Storage Data • Streamflow Forecasts and Reservoir Management • Streamflow Forecasts needed at the reservoir site • Interest on net-inflows = Total streamflow - Evaporation • Inflow forecasts needs to be probabilistic

  6. Need for Storage Forecasts • Reservoirs in the east are within-year • Humid basins – Fill it up by April 1st • Winter is the critical filling period – good skill • Why we need storage forecasts? • Inflow forecasts related to storage projections • Initial conditions in the reservoirs also influence • Issues in developing storage forecasts • Need to consider end of the month/season target storage • Varies depending on the user-defined releases • Probabilistic information in meeting the target storage

  7. Presentation Outline • Introduction and Objectives • Inflow Forecasting Model • Storage Forecasting Model • Inflow and Storage Portal • Inflow Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Storage Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Conclusion and Future Work

  8. Inflow Forecasting Model - Overview Predictors Portal automatically downloads Updated Monthly/Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from GCMs between 15-18 of each month IRI Data Library Model Predictand Precipitation Forecasts (Pt) from GCMs Statistical Downscaling Model (PCR) Forecasted Streamflow (Qt) Observed Streamflow (Qt-1) Training Period : Data up to previous year? Archived Forecasts : 1990-till date Use for Storage Forecast (Reservoir Model) State Climate Office of NC • Climate Data (GCMs): ECHAM 4.5 • Observed Streamflow: USACE Site

  9. Inflow Forecasts – Statistical Downscaling Statistical Downscaling • Precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 • forced with constructed analogue SST forecasts • Precipitation from the GCMs is spatially correlated • Principal component Regression • Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the data • PCA is applied on the predictors • Streamflow and ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts • Principal component regression to obtain Inflow forecasts. • Inflow Forecasts are provides as Ensembles

  10. Presentation Outline • Introduction and Objectives • Inflow Forecasting Model • Storage Forecasting Model • Inflow and Storage Portal • Inflow Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Storage Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Conclusion and Future Work

  11. Storage Forecasting Model • Net-Inflows Forecast: qtk; t=1…,T; k=1,…,N • Continuity Equation: t=1,2, …, T • User will prescribe the releases or use observed releases • Critical variable: End of the season target storage • Initial storage can provide water for entire forecasting period • Simulation Model estimates P(STL < ST < STU) • Probability of having the storage within the conservation pool

  12. Presentation Outline • Introduction and Objectives • Inflow Forecasting Model • Storage Forecasting Model • Inflow and Storage Portal – Individual Years • Inflow Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Storage Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Conclusion and Future Work

  13. Spatial and Temporal Extent • Inflow and Storage Forecasts – Spatial Extent • Neuse - Falls Lake – Fully Automated • Cape Fear - Jordan Lake – Fully Automated • Yadkin – Scott Keer Reservoir • Roanoke – Philpott • Catawba – South Fork and Rocky Creek • Inflow and Storage Forecasts – Temporal Extent • Monthly (at 1, 2 or 3 month lead time) and seasonal • Available from 1990 to present, updated month • Individual year forecasts or Retrospective forecasts

  14. Inflow Forecasting Models • Inflow Forecasts Models • Statistical Downscaling (PCR) • IRI Climate Forecasts – ECHAM4.5, Multimodel • Monthly/Seasonal Climatology (No Forecasts) • Land Surface Models (Under Integration) • NASA’s Land Information System – NOAH 3.2 • Variable Infiltration Capacity Model • Forecast Skills • Deterministic forecasts or as ensembles • Retrospective skill summary

  15. Experimental Inflow and Storage Forecasts Portal(http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/inflowforecast)

  16. Inflow Forecasts (Individual Year)

  17. Inflow Forecasts (Individual Year)

  18. Inflow Forecasts (Individual Year)

  19. Storage Forecasts (Individual Year)

  20. Storage Forecasts (Individual Year)

  21. Inflow Forecasts (Retrospective)

  22. Inflow Forecasts (Retrospective)

  23. Inflow Forecasts (Retrospective)

  24. Storage Forecasts (Retrospective)

  25. Storage Forecasts (Retrospective) Storage Range Probabilities: Reservoir Information for January:

  26. Presentation Outline • Introduction and Objectives • Inflow Forecasting Model • Storage Forecasting Model • Inflow and Storage Portal • Inflow Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Storage Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Conclusion and Future Work

  27. Seasonal Inflow Forecasts - JFM

  28. Seasonal Inflow Forecasts - AMJ

  29. Seasonal Inflow Forecasts - JAS

  30. Seasonal Inflow Forecasts - OND

  31. Seasonal Inflow (Climatology)

  32. Seasonal Inflow Forecasts – Skill Summary • Relative-RMSE : A good forecast is expected to have R-RMSE closer to zero • RPSS : If RPSS is positive, then the forecast skill exceeds that of the climatological probabilities. • Correlation: A good forecast is expected to have a correlation around one. • MSSS : A good forecast is expected to have MSSS be closer to one.

  33. Seasonal Inflow Forecasts - PCR vs. Climatology Falls Lake

  34. Seasonal Storage Forecasts - JFM

  35. Seasonal Storage Forecasts – JFMFalls Lake

  36. Seasonal Storage Forecasts: Climatology – JFM

  37. Monthly Inflow Forecasts - 6/2007 (3 Month Lead)

  38. Monthly Inflow Forecasts - 7/2007 (3-Month Lead)

  39. Monthly Inflow Forecasts - 8/2007 (3-monthLead)

  40. Monthly Storage Forecasts – JJA 2007- 3-Month Lead

  41. Monthly Inflow Forecasts: Sep 1996

  42. Inflow Forecasts- Sep 2012 – 1-Month lead

  43. Inflow Forecasts - Oct 2012 – 2 Month Lead

  44. Inflow Forecasts - Nov 2012 – 3 Month Lead

  45. Storage Forecasts - Nov 2012 – 3 Month Lead

  46. Storage Forecasts - Nov 2012 – 3-Month Lead

  47. Overview of Forecasting • Individual Year or Retrospective Forecasts • Seasonal and Monthly Forecast • Inflow forecast with skills summary • Storage forecast • User defined outflow or observed outflow • New Inflow and Storage Monthly Forecast • Available at the middle of month • Various lead times • Requires user defined outflows

  48. Presentation Outline • Introduction and Objectives • Inflow Forecasting Model • Storage Forecasting Model • Inflow and Storage Portal • Inflow Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Storage Forecasts (Monthly and Seasonal) • Conclusion and Future Work

  49. Conclusion, Future Work • Add Land Surface Models for Inflow Forecasts • Develop Multimodel Inflow Forecasts • Provide Inflow and Storage Forecasts for other Reservoirs in the Southeast US • Available at the State Climate Office Website (http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/inflowforecast)

  50. Acknowledgements • Project Funded by: Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI) and NC Urban Water Consortium (NC UWC) • Dr. Sankar Arumugam – Associate Professor - NC State University • Dr. Ryan Boyles - State Climatologist and Director - State Climate Office of North Carolina • Dr. Tushar Sinha - Postdoctoral Research Scientist - NC State University • Simon Mason - Research Scientist - IRI • Andrew McNamara - Graduate Student - NC State University • Thomas Petersen - Prospective Graduate Student

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