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Intervening flow forecasts (inflow between Lake Mead and Lake Powell)

Lower Colorado Basin – USBR Items. CBRFC-Lower Reclamation Primary Forecast Issues:. Intervening flow forecasts (inflow between Lake Mead and Lake Powell) Inflow forecasts needs between Davis & Parker – Havasu operational limits Forecast needs below Havasu to Imperial Dam

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Intervening flow forecasts (inflow between Lake Mead and Lake Powell)

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  1. Lower Colorado Basin – USBR Items CBRFC-Lower Reclamation Primary Forecast Issues: • Intervening flow forecasts (inflow between Lake Mead and Lake Powell) • Inflow forecasts needs between Davis & Parker – Havasu operational limits • Forecast needs below Havasu to Imperial Dam • Precipitation forecasts for irrigators (Imperial Valley) Outstanding CBRFC Action Items: • Forecast ability for inflow between Davis and Parker ? • Requirement / ability to model downstream to Imperial Dam. • Availability of projected releases from Reclamation for Mead, Havasu, and Mohave. • Identify relevant rainfall that might affect Imperial Valley irrigation (WFO Chat). • Determine the best number to represent upper basin SWE % of average. Outstanding Reclamation Action Items: • Communicate differences in Powell to Mead intervening flow means to Reclamation • group in Boulder, CO for further discussion • Assist CBRFC in determining what diversions/data exist downstream of Mohave • applicable to future modeling efforts. • Review possibility of funding streamflow gages on the Sacrament and Piute washes • including adding additional precipitation gages in these areas. • Coordinate with WFO Las Vegas for NWS Chat access ?

  2. Paria River Muddy Creek Virgin River Little Colorado Colorado River - Lake Powell to Diamond Fork Intervening Flow Forecasts: Lake Powell to Lake Mead NWSRFS Modeled River Segments Annual Distribution Inflow between Powell & Mead Best Skill

  3. Lake Mead Intervening Flow – 2010 Forecasts & Observed

  4. Forecast Calculations: Colorado @ Diamond Ck (CDCA3) + Virgin above Overton (VLMN2) + Muddy near Glendale (MUDN2) – Colorado @ Lee’s Ferry (CLFA3) Lake Mead Inflow (LKSA3) – Colorado @ Lee’s Ferry (CLFA3) LKSA3 = CDCA3 + MUDN2 + VLTA3 – CLFA3 + local flow Observed Calculation: Colorado @ Diamond Ck (CDCA3) + Virgin above Overton (VLMN2) + Muddy near Glendale (MUDN2) – Colorado @ Lee’s Ferry (CLFA3) CBRFC Evaporation = CDCA3 + MUDN2 + VLMN2 – Change in Storage – Release – Las Vegas Wash + Southern Nevada Waste Water Diversion CBRFC monthly evaporation (KAF) Jan-Dec 48 43 57 65 79 89 98 98 90 80 69 59 Reclamation monthly evaporation coefficients (feet) Jan-Dec .36 .33 .37 .46 .53 .64 .80 .85 .70 .51 .51 .44 Coefficients are multiplied by the average surface area of Lake Mead over the course of a month.

  5. Lake Havasu Local Inflow NWSRFS Modeled River Segments Calibration System: Challenges: Finding significant precipitation events during the calibration period (signal to noise ratio) Possible Solutions: Expand Precipitation gages on California side Increase density of precipitation gages Rate current Mojave County streamflow gages • Installation of streamflow gages on major washes between Davis and Parker Dams • Sacramento Wash (largest) • Piute Wash

  6. Lake Havasu Local Inflow NWSRFS Modeled River Segments Operational Forecast System: Primary Inputs • Observed river stage & reservoir release data • Observed Hourly Data • Gage data (Mojave Co. ALERT) • NWS Doppler Radar • Forecast Precipitation • 6 Hourly QPF Data Additional Operational Data Needs Release schedule or pattern for reservoirs

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