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Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products. Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li U.W. Madison James Turner Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ Jeff Prestemon USDA-FS, SO. Background. U.S. forests at risk Chestnut blight, early 1900s
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Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li U.W. Madison James Turner Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ Jeff Prestemon USDA-FS, SO
Background • U.S. forests at risk • Chestnut blight, early 1900s • Dutch Elm Disease, mid-1900s • Balsam and Hemlock Woolly Adelgids • Sudden Oak Death • Gypsy Moth • Spruce budworm • Oak wilt • U.S. is largest producer, consumer, importer • Globalization • GATT-WTO • NAFTA • FTAA • Growing trade => growing threat • Other countries face same issues
Objectives • Losses incurred by producers and consumers due to timber supply reductions caused by invasive species • Effects of regulations (phytosanitary rules and import bans) on producer and consumer welfare
Global Forest Products Model • Dynamic Competitive equilibrium • Demand • Supply • Trade • 14 forest products • 180 countries
Raw material Intermediate product Final product Fuelwood Fuelwood Other roundwood Other industrial roundwood Industrial roundwood Sawnwood Plywood Particleboard Fiberboard Mechanical pulp Newsprint Chemical pulp Printing & writing paper Other fiber pulp Other paper & paperboard Waste paper GFPM Product Flow
GFPM dynamics P T+ 1 P T π T T +1 Q T +1 T Q T
Alternative Scenarios • Status quo projections, 2002 – 2012 • Ban on global trade of logs
Future Work • Finish log export ban scenario analysis • Study effects of treatment costs on trade, production, and prices • Develop timber supply sub-model to simulate effects of invasive species