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Global Trends in Transport Fuels and the implications for Australian policy

Global Trends in Transport Fuels and the implications for Australian policy. Russell Caplan Chairman, Shell Companies in Australia Bureau for Transport and Regional Economics Colloquium Canberra, 15 June 2006. Global trends. Continuing use of conventional fuels

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Global Trends in Transport Fuels and the implications for Australian policy

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  1. Global Trends in Transport Fuels and the implications for Australian policy Russell Caplan Chairman, Shell Companies in Australia Bureau for Transport and Regional Economics Colloquium Canberra, 15 June 2006

  2. Global trends • Continuing use of conventional fuels • Cleaner transport fuels • Fuel and engine efficiency • Price pressures • Refinery location & capacity • Self-sufficiency vs economic growth

  3. World energy demand 1971-2030 other renewables billion tonnes oil equivalent hydro nuclear biomass & waste coal gas oil IEA 2004 (reference case)

  4. Demand for Oil to 2030 From Akmal and Riwoe (2005), per AIP submission to the Inquiry into Future Oil Supply and Alternative Transport Fuels (2006)

  5. Forecast global automotive fuel demand to 2100 Energy Demand （x1018 J ） Hydrogen Gaseous Fuels Gas 300 Electricity 250 Synthetic fuel and biofuels 200 150 Liquid Fuels 100 Diesel / Gasoline 50 Heavy Oil 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Data source：WEC; with modification

  6. Global trends • Continuing use of conventional fuels • Cleaner transport fuels • Clean fuels - unleaded, lower sulphur • Synthetic fuels – GtL, CtL • Biofuels • Fuel and engine efficiency • Price pressures • Refinery location & capacity • Self-sufficiency vs economic growth

  7. Synthetic Fuels Continuum  Identical products from gas, coal and biomass  Range of feedstock options GTL Natural Gas Shell Gasification Process BTL Biomass Syngas Gasifier CTL Fischer-Tropsch process Identical Products Shell Coal Gasification Process Coal

  8. Biofuels Shell Global Road Transport Fuel Volume Base Case KBPD 5000 4500 Bio-Gasoline 4% 4000 3500 Bio-fuels: ~ 7 % 3000 Gasoline 44% Conventional gasoline and diesel = 89% 2500 XTL Diesel 4% 2000 Bio-Diesel 3% 1500 Diesel 45% 1000 CO2 reduction from bio-fuel: ~ 3 MT 2005 ~ 17 MT 2025 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: IEA, PX, DXF

  9. Global trends • Continuing use of conventional fuels • Cleaner transport fuels • Fuel and engine efficiency • Smaller cars, hybrids • More diesel • More efficient engine technology • Driver education • Price pressures • Refinery location & capacity • Self-sufficiency vs economic growth

  10. Global trends • Continuing use of conventional fuels • Cleaner transport fuels • Fuel and engine efficiency • Price pressures • Demand side factors • Supply side factors • Refinery location & capacity • Self-sufficiency vs economic growth

  11. Global trends • Continuing use of conventional fuels • Cleaner transport fuels • Fuel and engine efficiency • Price pressures • Refinery location & capacity • Construction of mega-refineries • Located in Asia or Middle East • Rising finished product imports into Australia • Self-sufficiency vs economic growth

  12. Refinery ** China: large coastal refineries only Source: Oil & Gas Journal; Petroleum Economist World Energy Atlas; McKinsey analysis Refinery Capacity, thousands of barrels per day 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 Australian Refineries 400 300 200 100 0 Asian Refining

  13. Global trends • Continuing use of conventional fuels • Cleaner transport fuels • Fuel and engine efficiency • Price pressures • Refinery location & capacity • Self-sufficiency vs economic growth

  14. Determining a vision for transport fuels in 2050 • Should we have a long term transport energy vision? • What fuels are present in the vision? • Where do our fuels come from? • What is the interplay between transport fuels and generation fuels? • What environmental footprint will the fuels of the future have? • What do we need to do today to set ourselves up to achieve the vision?

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