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WP 5 Assessment of improvements in NWP

WP 5 Assessment of improvements in NWP. Severe weather case study. LAPS analysis and LM-LAPS forecast for IOP14 and IOP15. Francesco Iocca, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Paolo Patruno, Pier Paolo Alberoni, Lorenzo Guerrieri. Overview

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WP 5 Assessment of improvements in NWP

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  1. WP 5 Assessment of improvements in NWP

  2. Severe weather case study

  3. LAPS analysis and LM-LAPS forecast for IOP14 and IOP15 Francesco Iocca, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Paolo Patruno, Pier Paolo Alberoni, Lorenzo Guerrieri

  4. Overview • Create high resolution data-set in the alpine region from MAP data; • LAPS analysis (10 Km orizontal, 21 vertical level, 1 hour in time) • for iop14 and iop15; • Very short range forecast with LM-LAPS system, in same period; CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  5. MAP data-set • Data was downloaded from MAP site by free access (www.map.ethz.ch): • Surface station (n° 2090 sites, 14 parameters, 1h frequency); • Radiosonde (n° 39 sites, 7 parameters, 6 hour frequency: 00,06,12,18); • Dropsonde (launches not every day, 11 parameters, 6 hour frequency: • 00,06,12,18); • Sodar (n° 13 sites, 7 parameters, 30 minutes frequency); • Rass (n° 5 sites, 2 parameters, 1h frequency); • Windprofiler (n° 14 sites, 4 parameters, 15 minutes or 1hour frequency depending on provider); This row data-set was transformed in LAPS input ascii format and some physical constrain quality check was done. Also we used satellite data from meteosat (bright temperature, visible). CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  6. MAP data-set: spatial coverage • Surface station CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  7. MAP data-set: spatial coverage • Windprofiler CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  8. MAP data-set: spatial coverage • Rass CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  9. MAP data-set: spatial coverage • Sodar CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  10. MAP data-set: spatial coverage • Radiosonde CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  11. LAPS analysis The previous observational data-set was used with first guess field from LAMBO (Limited Area Model Bologna, to elaborate LAPS analysis. LAPS is an interpolation system based on Barnes methods and decisional tree. CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  12. Synoptic Analysis: IOP14 (3-4 nov) European circulation is characterize by a sharp trough extending from Scandinavia to Southern France. This system is entering in mediterranean bacin and is deeping. During the 3rd Nov. we observe a very large frontal zone splitting in two parts near Swiss: at south an active cold front causing moderate e heavy rain with thunderstorms in Sardinia/Corsica and Liguria and a weakliing part along North of Alps. On day 4 we observe a cut-off located on Lion gulf and it is deepening and moving to SE. On surface is associated a close circulation over Ligurian sea and south Alps. CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  13. CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  14. Synoptic Analysis: IOP15 (5-9 nov) Day 5 november is very clear a blocking situation that will caracterize whole observing period. Mediterranean cut-off low start to move SE as an intense Atlantic short wave approaches Italy. Day 6 we observe a very intense developement, with thunderstorms activity in Adriatic sea and East Alps. The following days the centre of surface cyclone interest central and meridional Italy and from day 9 a new cut-off low carring Nord Sea cold air reach NE Alps. CARPE DIEM Meeting 15-16 december 2003

  15. Development o a VSRF system

  16. LM-LAPS forecast for IOP14 and IOP15 Lokal Model (LM) is a limited area model developed at DWD, operative in ARPA-SMR. Main characteristics: • Orizontal resolution ~ 7 Km • Vertical resolution: 35 levels in sigma coordinates

  17. 0 +24 LAMI Boundary Condition BC 2 BC 0 BC 1 BC 12 BC 24 0 +1 +2 +3 +12 +24 time LM LAPS background LM LM LAPS analisys 0 LM LAPS analisys 1 LM very short range forecast +12 LAPS analisys 2 LAPS analisys 11 LAPS analisys 12 Assimilation Cycle (nudging) Start LM run Stop LM run

  18. h-1 h h+1 time LM forecast +1 hour with nudging LAPS analisys for time h-1 Stop LM run Start LM run FC +1 = LAPS background for time h Observation for time h: Surface; Radiosonde; Dropsonde; Sodar; Rass; Windprofiler; Satellite; LAPS analisys for time h LM forecast +1 hour with nudging LAPS analisys for time h

  19. Description of experiments: For each days of IOP14 and IOP15 we run LM-LAPS in the following quasi-operative setting: • Assimilation Cycle from 00 to 12; • Very Short Range Forecast (+12), start at 12 (after assimilation cycle);

  20. First results

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