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MSIM 752/852 ANALYSIS II

MSIM 752/852 ANALYSIS II. 2010 Edition. THE COURSE . 14 Sessions 3 hours each Mondays 7pm to 10pm Hosted from Quantico, ODU, Dahlgren, Sterling VA Prototype Session One applied probability topic One operations research topic One lighter presentation or student presentation

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MSIM 752/852 ANALYSIS II

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  1. MSIM 752/852ANALYSIS II 2010 Edition MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  2. THE COURSE • 14 Sessions • 3 hours each • Mondays 7pm to 10pm • Hosted from Quantico, ODU, Dahlgren, Sterling VA • Prototype Session • One applied probability topic • One operations research topic • One lighter presentation or student presentation • Invitation open to append to the topic list • Requests for research to the Professor • Proposals for home-grown publication presentations • Non-linear sequence of research-centric presentations MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  3. ONLINE RESOURCES • http://orsagouge.pbwiki.com/MSIM852 • schedule • lectures • readings • study questions • student homework • www.blackboard.odu.edu • Student email -- login and password MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  4. ANALYSIS I • This course will introduce students to the topics in operations research and statistics necessary to conduct requirements-driven analysis. It will support the student in understanding the role of M&S within the applicable means of operational research as well as constraints and requirements when applying M&S in the domain of analysis and experimentation. MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  5. ANALYSIS II • Course expands upon the student’s understanding and capability in the areas of stochastic processes and data analysis, especially as applied to analysis of simulation output data. Course includes theoretical underpinnings of stochastic processes commonly applied in analyses supported by simulation results. MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  6. ANALYSIS II • Specific areas of investigation include • design of simulation experiments, • estimation of steady-state parameters, • simulation-based optimization, • and state-of-the-art application of stochastic theory to simulation problems. MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  7. THE WORK • Students will present • One (1) Research Topical Presentation (15 MIN) • Required: Each presentation will be pre-run, scheduled for Sunday or Monday, over the phone with the professor for GO/NO GO • Handouts for the web (may be hand-written) • SIGN UP for a time, starting • Written critiques for Three (3) analysis or modeling presentations focused on the value of the research presented on the state of the art • orsagouge • WinterSim link on orsagouge • One or more seminal papers will be available on each topic via the web, many are supported in texts such as Law and Kelton • First Critique due 20 SEPT • Last Critique due 6 DEC MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  8. ...more THE WORK • Exercises • Basic concept & application • Similar to final exam questions • Final Exam 13 DEC 09 • Oral exam IVO ODU MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  9. STUDENTS’ EXTRA EFFORT • Students desiring excellent grades will also construct a system simulation program (no re-use allowed) in a language of their choice, and apply several advanced statistical techniques to produce analytical results. • Due dates… • Identify system simulated 13 SEPT (email) • Simulation functional 1 NOV (email) • Project analysis plan 8 NOV (email) • Final portfolio of results due 22 NOV (ppt) • Selected presentations at Student Simulation Workshop, 29 NOV • Presentation guidance on orsagouge MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  10. FUNDAMENTALS OF A CRITQUE • Analysis (distillation) of the results presented • Comparison of one or more publications relating to the content (author usually provides two or more vectors) • Analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the content, especially the premises of the problem statement • Potential applications of the methods presented to today’s pressing simulation problems • Evaluation of the impact of the content on the state of the art • Two-page format • Electronic submission • Potential oral discourse during class MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  11. POLICY • Presentations and critiques are property of the Class, and may be posted on the internet, or some other similar public forum • Names on critiques will be removed • No grades will be attached, but critical comments will be made online or in class • Presentation notes and critiques can be emailed directly (mikebaileyvienna@earthlink.net, michael.bailey@usmc.mil or mpbailey@odu.edu) MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  12. WHY WE ARE HERE • Introduction to today’s research in Analysis and related breakthroughs in Analytical Methods • Key fields and how they are arrayed • Properties of quality research • Key open areas and how to approach PhD research • Best sources for quality research MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  13. …more WHY ARE WE HERE • Discussion of the research process • Targeting • Reading • Experimenting • Consolidation • Publication targeting • Drafting • Editing • Special considerations for web publishing MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  14. …more WHY WE ARE HERE? • Understanding the scale & scope of the simulation field • Personal growth • Craft • Intellect • Discipline • Maturity MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  15. Policy • Attendance via recorded video/audio/ppt is acceptable • An extra critique of one of the topics presented during that session is the pay-back MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

  16. PROFESSOR MIKE • PhD from UNC, Chapel Hill • Stochastic processes • Simulation from G. S. Fishman (Mister SIMSCRIPT) • Developer of air mission planning systems • EA-6B, F-117, B-2 • Naval Postgraduate School • Professor of Operations Research • Simulation for O. R., 1988-1995 • OPNAV Staff • Campaign Analyst (OPNAV N812D9) • USMC • Principal Investigator for Modeling and Simulation • Office of Science and Technology • Director, Strategic Studies Group • Technical Director, Training and Education Command • Technical Director, USMC Operations Analysis Division MS 852 M. P. Bailey VMASC

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