1 / 31

COMMUNICATING FORECASTS AND WARNINGS TO DECISION MAKERS

Best Practices in Near-Term Eruption Forecasting Ettore Majorana foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture Erice , Italy 11-15 September 2011. COMMUNICATING FORECASTS AND WARNINGS TO DECISION MAKERS. Presented by HUGO YEPES

donald
Download Presentation

COMMUNICATING FORECASTS AND WARNINGS TO DECISION MAKERS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Best Practices in Near-Term Eruption Forecasting EttoreMajorana foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture Erice, Italy 11-15 September 2011 COMMUNICATING FORECASTS AND WARNINGS TO DECISION MAKERS Presented by HUGO YEPES In cooperation with Pablo Palaciónal¡nd the Volcanology team INSTITUTO GEOFISICO – EPN SERVICO NACIONAL DE SISMOLOGIA Y VULCANOLOGIA – SENASV hyepes@igepn.edu.ec www.igepn.edu.ec

  2. OUTLINE • Introductory premises • Some definitions about the message and recipients of warnings • Strong and weak communication connections: Tungurahua Volcano case study • The Seismic Activity Index as a medium to short term forecaster • The Seismo-Acoustic Index (BRUN or RUNTUN index) as a short term warning

  3. Introductory Premises • Scientists should have a thorough understanding of the volcano and of what they know and what they don’t. Uncertainties should be communicated. • In order to communicate volcanic hazards, forecasts, warnings, alerts, it is absolutely important to have an acceptable knowledge of the key actors (stakeholders?) taking part in a potentially dangerous eruption. Adjustments in the message are needed for different actors. • Alert/crisis communications should be delivered opportunely and taking into careful how the massage will be delivered to different actors.

  4. Some Non-scientific Definitions for Scientists • Forecast: a prediction or estimate of future events • Warning: a statement or event that indicates a possible or impending danger ---------------------------------- • Actor: a participant in an action or process • Social actor: a collective body, with an identity and values, whose members are modifiers of their circumstances, generators of action strategies in order to transform society • Social actors are characterized by the recognition of who makes what, how, with what objective, with whom and with what results. • Who are they? –community organizations, local councils, NGOs, entrepreneurs, real stators, financial sectors, unions…… scientists? • Stakeholder: a person with an interest or concern in something; a type of organization or system in which all the members or participants are seen as having an interest in its success Modified from Alain Touraine (1984), "Le retour de l'acteur, essai de sociologie", éd. Fayard, Paris, France.

  5. KEY ACTORS and other players in the communication process • VOLCANO • DECISION MAKERS • POPULATION AT RISK • MEDIA • SCIENTISTS

  6. Communicating VOLCANIC UNREST (forecasts) Communicating VOLCANIC UNREST (forecasts) • VOLCANO • DECISION MAKERS • POPULATION AT RISK • MEDIA • SCIENTISTS • GENERAL PUBLIC • OTHER CIENTISTS

  7. NOTORIOUS VOLCANIC UNREST (warnings) • VOLCANO • VOLCANO • DECISION MAKERS • DECISION MAKERS • POPULATION AT RISK POPULATION AT RISK • MEDIA • MEDIA • SCIENTISTS • GENERAL PUBLIC • OTHER CIENTISTS • HIGHER LEVELS

  8. ACTORS (those who stay) • VOLCANO • VOLCANO WEAK TIES • DECISION MAKERS • PEOPLE AT RISK • PEOPLE AT RISK STRONG BONDS • MEDIA • SCIENTISTS • SCIENTISTS • GENERAL PUBLIC • OTHER CIENTISTS • HIGHER LEVELS

  9. GOOD PRACTICE: TUNGURAHUA VOLCANO Summit 5023 m • A long term relationship among social actors has been established • Social actors are working together to modify one circumstance: the volcanic risk in their community • Decision makers have changed throughout time. There is a new risk management system. Authorities heavily rely on the local organization for acting upon warnings. Westflank settlements Baños 1900 m

  10. The 2003-2005 DIPECHO project was fundamental for the direct involvement of scientistsqith the communities.

  11. OVT personnel working with local authorities community leaders and community members

  12. Community hazard map Scientific hazard map Rojo Intenso : Zona de peligro mayor Rojo medio : zona de peligro moderado Rojo pálido: zona de peligro menor

  13. The Seismic Activity Index as a medium to short term forecaster • VOLCANO • DECISION MAKERS • PEOPLE • MEDIA • SCIENTISTS • GENERAL PUBLIC • OTHER CIENTISTS • HIGHER LEVELS

  14. Relating monitoring observations to volcanic outcomes: The Seismic Activity Index • Purpose: to simplify the communication with decision makers and the general public by quantifying in simple numbers the seismic activity of Tungurahua Volcano • The Seismic Activity Index SAI: • Is a medium to short term forecaster • Uses short period, analog seismometers • Utilizes a reference period where volcanic superficial activity and internal seismic activity are known. • Compares the “true” seismic energy released by the volcano day by day with the maximum observed seismic energy during the reference period. A weighting processes includes the expert criteria • Includes the comparison of the daily counts of each type of pre-identified events with the reference period in order to identify pressurization • Daily values (DI) are treated statistically to obtain the Seismic Activity Index • Levels of the SAI are established using the observation period and is related to physical changes inside the volcano • Future trends are established using equivalents to bayesian models (ARIMA) • Intervals of confidence are computed to asses the uncertainties of the forecast.

  15. Daily Activity Index

  16. Seismic Activity Index

  17. Daily Activity Index:the construction period

  18. Seismic Activity Index:the construction period

  19. Seismic Activity Index:the ratification period

  20. Seismic Activity Index:problems

  21. Seismic Activity Index:the communication tool

  22. Seismic Activity Index:the communication tool

  23. Seismic Activity Index:the communication tool

  24. Seismic Activity Index:the communication tool

  25. Relating monitoring observations to volcanic outcomes: The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index) • Purpose: to simplify the communication with decision makers and the general public by quantifying in simple numbers the seismic activity of Tungurahua Volcano • The Seismic-Acoustic Index BRUN: • Is a short term forecaster • Uses one BB digital seismometer • Utilizes a reference period where volcanic superficial activity and internal seismic activity are known. • Compares the first three eruptions at Tungurahua that generated pyroclastic flows (14.07.2006; 16.08.2005; 06.02.2008) with minute by minute observed seismic and acoustic energy at BRUN • Istheresultof a convolutionthatallowtofindthetrendusingthevaluesofthelast 10 minutes. • Levels of the BRUN Index are established using the observation made during the pfs: 10% (yellow), 60% (orange) and 90% (red) • Future trends are established using equivalents to bayesian models (ARIMA)

  26. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index)

  27. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index)

  28. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index) Vulcanian eruption

  29. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index):the communication tool

  30. The Seismic-Acoustic Index (BRUN Index):the communication tool complements

  31. THANK YOU

More Related