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Experimental Probability Problem of the Day Lesson

This lesson introduces students to experimental probability by solving real-world probability problems. It includes presentations, quizzes, and vocabulary review.

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Experimental Probability Problem of the Day Lesson

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  1. Warm Up Problem of the Day Lesson Presentation Lesson Quizzes

  2. I can find experimental probability. 1. A jar contains 6 red, 8 blue, and 10 white marbles. Would you be more likely to pull out a red or a blue marble? Determine if the event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain. 2.Attendance at a city council meeting is at 100%. Mr. Lloyd is a council member. How likely is it that Mr. Lloyd is at the meeting? blue certain

  3. Problem of the Day The probability of Liana making a free throw was 2 3 . If she made 24 of her free throws, how many did she miss? 12

  4. I can find experimental probability.

  5. Vocabulary experimental probability

  6. Experimental probability is one way of estimating the probability of an event. The experimental probability of the event is found by comparing the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials. The more trials you have, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.

  7. number of times an event occurs total number of trials P(event) number of jumps landed number of jumps attempted P(jumps landed) 7 12 = The experimental probability that Sasha will land her next jump is . 7 12 Additional Example 1: Sports Application During skating practice, Sasha landed 7 out of 12 jumps. What is the experimental probability that she will land her next jump? Substitute data from the experiment.

  8. Writing Math “P(event)” represents the probability that an event will occur. For example, the probability of a flipped coin landing heads up could be written as “P(heads).”

  9. number of times an event occurs total number of trials P(event) number of free throws made number of free throws attempted P(free throws made) 9 10 = = 90% The experimental probability that Martha will make the next free throw is or 90%. 9 10 Check It Out: Example 1 During basketball practice, Martha made 9 out of 10 free throws. What is the experimental probability that she will make her next attempt? Substitute data from the experiment and write as a percent.

  10. 32 55 . Additional Example 2A: Application Students have checked out 55 books from the library. Of these, 32 books are fiction. What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction? number of fiction books checked out total number of books checked out P(fiction)  32 55 Substitute data.  The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction is approximately

  11. 32 55 P(nonfiction) = 1 + 32 55 Subtract from both sides. 32 55 – – 23 55 32 55 23 55 . P(nonfiction) = The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction is approximately Additional Example 2B: Application What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction? Use the complement. P(fiction) + P(nonfiction) = 1 Substitute. Simplify.

  12. number of pears selected total number of fruit selected P(pear)  18 47 . Check It Out: Example 2A Students have a fruit choice for lunch of an apple or a pear. So far 18 of 47 students have selected pears. What is the experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear? 18 47 Substitute data.  The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear is approximately

  13. 18 47 P(apple) = 1 + 18 47 18 47 – – Subtract from both sides. 29 47 18 47 29 47 . P(apple) = The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be an apple is Check It Out: Example 2B What is the experimental probability that next fruit selected will be an apple? P(pear) + P(apple) = 1 Use the complement. Substitute. Simplify.

  14. Lesson Quizzes Standard Lesson Quiz Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

  15. Lesson Quiz 1. In a soccer shoot-out, Bryan made 4 out of 9 goals. What is the experimental probability that he will make the next shot? 2. It has rained on the last 2 out of 10 Fourth of July parades in Swanton. A. What is the experimental probability that it will rain on the Fourth of July parade this year? B. What is the experimental probability that it will not rain on the Fourth of July parade this year? 4 9 1 5 4 5

  16. Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems 1. During a shot put practice session, Greg crossed the 70-foot mark in 15 out of 21 attempts. What is the experimental probability that he will cross the 70-foot mark in his next attempt? A. B. C. D. 2 7 5 7 6 7 7 5

  17. Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems 2. Simon is practicing basketball. He made 33 of 42 free throws he attempted. What is the experimental probability that we will make his next free throw? A. B. C. D. 9 14 11 42 11 14 14 11

  18. Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems 3. Rachel found that 20 out of 48 cars that entered a parking lot were red. What is the experimental probability that the next car that comes in is red? What is the experimental probability that the next car that comes in is not red? A. B. C. D.

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