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Shelter or Evacuate? Alan Goodwin Deputy Chief Constable ACPO Emergency Procedures Committee

This article discusses the considerations and challenges involved in deciding whether to shelter in place or evacuate during emergency situations. It explores risk-based planning at national, regional, and local levels, as well as the legal and logistical aspects of evacuation. The importance of effective communication strategies and dynamic risk assessment is emphasized.

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Shelter or Evacuate? Alan Goodwin Deputy Chief Constable ACPO Emergency Procedures Committee

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  1. Shelter or Evacuate? Alan Goodwin Deputy Chief Constable ACPO Emergency Procedures Committee

  2. Introduction • Risk Based Planning – National/Regional/Local • Civil Contingencies Act 2004 • Duty to produce Community Risk Register • Duty to plan and exercise accordingly • Shelter and Evacuation as options • Generic considerations • No Case Studies – valuable to workshop discussions

  3. National Risk Assessment • “Mass” Evacuation • National advice or decision making involved • Highly unlikely due to risks involved • Large Scale Evacuation • Regional/National support may be needed • E.g. Flooding, Transport/Utilities failure, industrial accidents, acts of terrorism.

  4. Local Planning • Much already in place • COMAH, Sports venues, City/Town Centres • Scaleable Flexibility • Generic planning capable of scaling up/down • Quality Assurance • Interdependencies, conflicts, integration with neighbouring areas • Planning & Exercising regime

  5. Purpose of Evacuation • “To move people and, where appropriate, other living creatures away from an actual or potential danger to a safer place.”(CCS Draft Guidance unpublished) • Always the preferred option?

  6. Shelter or Evacuate? • Often better to shelter in buildings in response to events. • Challenges of Shelter • Supporting dependent people in their homes. • Maintenance of key services. • Potential for spontaneous self-evacuation. • Rational people doing irrational things. • Decision for Gold Commander based on prevailing circumstances. Dynamic Risk Assessment.

  7. Shelter or Evacuate? • Evacuation requires a well co-ordinated multi agency response. • People require to leave their homes must be supported and reassured. • Considerations: • Where are they going to? • How will we get them there? • How long will they be there for? • How will they and their homes be protected? • How will we communicate with them and others affected by the evacuation? • Plan before the Decision!

  8. Planning Considerations (1) • Logistics • are the necessary resources available to deliver the plan? (e.g. are individual elements predicated upon the same police resources?) • Is there a reliance on military MACA? Is it realistic? • Infrastructure • Is the necessary transport infrastructure still in place? • Are key communications channels still available? • People and Places • Vulnerable people in communities • High risk premises – hospitals, prisons, schools.

  9. Planning Considerations (2) • Command & Control Arrangements • Strategic Coordinating Group (“Gold”) • Role of Regional Government Office • Central Government arrangements (CONOPS) • Mutual Aid Arrangements • Police - PNICC activation • Local Authorities - reciprocal resource sharing • Role of Voluntary Sector • Transportation • Assistance at rest centres • Social and welfare support • Media Strategy • Key Messages • Access to evacuees

  10. Legal Considerations • Compulsory Evacuation? • No Police Powers to order evacuation • CC Act Emergency Powers? Unlikely (e.g. Triton) • US experience – mandatory evacuation problematic • Effective & persuasive media strategies essential. • Local Authority Housing Duty? • Displaced people but for how long? • Relationship with outsourced housing providers? • Animal Welfare? • Legislation relating to livestock, zoos and pets. • How DO we evacuate a family of giraffes?

  11. Warning & Informing • Communication Strategies • Any decision to shelter or evacuate must be underpinned by a robust communication strategy. • People need to know what they need to do. • Duty under CC Act 2004 • Local responders must have arrangements in place to warn and inform the public in times of emergency. • Utilise Regional Media Emergency Forum. Links to Government News Network. • Consider mirroring RMEF at Local level. • Exercise communication plans in their own right. • Role of Gold Command • Early delivery of communications strategy when considering shelter or evacuation. www.preparingforemergencies.gov.uk

  12. Conclusion • Cabinet Office Evacuation Guidance • Conferences/Booklets now • Guidance/Policy issues early Summer • Will incorporate issues discussed today BUT • Evacuation or Shelter is a Command Decision • Part of contingency planning wherever possible • Requires dynamic risk assessment as events unfold. • Consider short and long term impact of decisions.

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