Biodiversity and climate change in relation to the Natura 2000 network

1. Biodiversity and climate change in relation to the Natura 2000 network Alison Campbell UNEP-WCMC 12th June 2009 United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre

2. Background • The Natura 2000 network is at the heart of biodiversity and conservation policy in the European Union • Climate change impacts are likely to seriously challenge the objective of the Natura 2000 network: to halt the decline of biodiversity within the EU by the year 2010 • Knowledge of these impacts will be important for developing climate change adaptation policy in the EU • Three main tasks: 1. Literature review of CC impacts on EU species 2. Vulnerability assessment of species of “Community Interest” under changing climate 3.Application of these results to the Natura 2000 network (UNEP-WCMC)

3. Task 3: Objectives • Demonstrate which Natura 2000 sites are projected to be faced with the largest temperature changes • Identify which regions and countries have a large number of species identifed as vulnerable to climate change in their Natura 2000 sites • Produce policy relevant outputs 3

4. Brief methodology • Vulnerability scores for 212 species of Community Interest (assessed in Task 2) • Linked to spatial data for over 24,000 Natura 2000 sites • 2 parts: • Natura 2000 sites categorised by coarse scale projected temperature changes across regions (number of sites and area) • A2 and B1 scenarios (IPCC) • HadCM3 for the three time slices 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 • Regions and countries in which Natura 2000 sites contain highly vulnerable species of Community interest identified • Link vulnerability data to spatial Natura 2000 site data • Separate by taxon (birds, amphibans, reptiles, butterfly, plants), biogeographic region and country • Identify species of particular concern 4

5. Projected temperature changes across Natura 2000 sites, and coarse temperature grids containing number of sites (Scenario A2 between 2011 & 2065) • 3,150 sites 2-3 °C • 7 sites 3-4°C • Increases of > 2°C projected for 12% Natura 2000 sites • only 5% projected to see increases < 1°C 5

6. Species of Community Interest: Birds • Over half of assessed bird species (149 species) in top three categories of vulnerability (very high and above) 2077-2099 • Highest levels of vulnerability in the Natura 2000 sites of the Mediterranean region (51% in top 3 categories) • Lowest levels of vulnerability in the Boreal region (33%) Above: output of vulnerability assessment (B1 scenario) Right: linked to biogeographic region

7. Results also presented by biogeographic region and country for each taxon individually under the following scenarios: Vulnerability of assessed amphibian, reptile, butterfly and plant species by country under the A2 scenario by 2050 7

8. Species rated as highly vulnerable to climate change that only occur in a small number of Natura 2000 sites can also be identified 8

9. Summary • Interim report • Shows that temperature changes will be felt across the majority of Natura 2000 sites • Suggests that a significant number of species of Community Interest are vulnerable to climate change • Shows the numbers of species that are vulnerable to climate change across Natura 2000 sites on a regional basis and across taxa • Identifies particularly vulnerable species • Implications for adaptation policy • Could be used for coarser scale analyses (sub-regional scale and individual site) 9

10. A world where biodiversity counts www.unep-wcmc.org 10