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Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR September 25, 2008

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Update: Modeled Operation of Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbines in the Pacific Northwest. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR September 25, 2008.

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Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR September 25, 2008

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  1. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power PlanUpdate: Modeled Operation of Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbines in the Pacific Northwest Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR September 25, 2008

  2. Using EPA CEMS Data to Improve Modeled Dispatch of Northwest CCCTs • EPA CEMS Data: 2006 – Q1 2008 • Hourly Operating Data: 19,704 hours • Generating Unit Data: • Aggregate to plant level • Gross Generation (in MW) • For gas turbines only (not for HRSGs) • Fuel Input (in MMBtu) • Fuel Factor (i.e., Hourly Fuel Input / Max(Fuel Input)) as proxy for CCCT capacity factor July 17, 2008

  3. Coyote Springs 1: Actual Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  4. Coyote Springs 1: Modeled Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  5. Hermiston Power: Actual Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  6. Hermiston Power: Modeled Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  7. Klamath Cogen: Actual Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  8. Klamath Cogen: Modeled Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  9. More modeled starts per year… July 17, 2008

  10. Much shorter modeled runtimes… July 17, 2008

  11. Q: Why is excessive shutdown an important problem? A: Because it impacts: • wholesale power market price forecasts; and • power system carbon dioxide forecasts July 17, 2008

  12. AURORA CCCT Commitment and Dispatch Parameters July 17, 2008

  13. Minimum Capacity Estimation July 17, 2008

  14. Minimum Capacity In CCCT Mode: Estimation Using EPA CEMS Data • In AURORA Minimum Capacity is specified as a percentage of Nameplate Capacity • Used only for commitment (or non-cycling) operation • Separate Cycle-Only mode for simple cycle operation • Use EPA CEMS data to create cumulative frequency of operating level curves • Use judgment to select Minimum Capacity • Criterion: beyond all zones of infrequent operation (i.e., “forbidden zones”) July 17, 2008

  15. Coyote Springs 1: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 14,180 hours) July 17, 2008

  16. PNW CCCTs: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level Curves July 17, 2008

  17. Coyote Springs 1: Min. Cap = 185 MW in CCCT ModeNameplate = 226 MW July 17, 2008

  18. Big Hanaford: Min. Cap = 198 MW in CCCT ModeNameplate = 248 MW July 17, 2008

  19. Chehalis: Min. Cap = 416 MW in CCCT ModeNameplate = 520 MW July 17, 2008

  20. Coyote Springs 2: Min. Cap = 201 MW in CCCT ModeNameplate = 264 MW July 17, 2008

  21. Frederickson: Min. Cap = 242 MW in CCCT ModeNameplate = 310 MW July 17, 2008

  22. Klamath Cogen: Min. Cap = 288 MW in CCCT ModeNameplate = 480 MW July 17, 2008

  23. Port Westward: Min. Cap = 341 MW in CCCT ModeNameplate = 426 MW July 17, 2008

  24. Minimum Capacity in CCCT Mode% of Nameplate July 17, 2008

  25. Minimum Capacity in CCCT Mode% of Nameplate July 17, 2008

  26. Ramp Rate Estimation July 17, 2008

  27. Ramp Rates: Estimation Using EPA CEMS Data • In AURORA Ramp Rate is specified as a percentage of Nameplate Capacity • Used for all modes of operation • Used at all levels of operation (e.g. zero to min cap. or min cap. to nameplate) • Use EPA CEMS data to find minimum time (i.e., fastest ramp) to full level of operation • Use judgment to select “full” operation level July 17, 2008

  28. Coyote Springs 1: Ramp Rate Illustration July 17, 2008

  29. Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > = .95 July 17, 2008

  30. Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > = .90 July 17, 2008

  31. Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > = .85 July 17, 2008

  32. Ramp Rates of PNW CCCTs% of Nameplate July 17, 2008

  33. Ramp Rates of PNW CCCTs% of Nameplate July 17, 2008

  34. Next Steps: • Estimate Start-up and Shut-down costs • Use AURORA’s new “shutdown penalty” to adjust modeled CCCT operation July 17, 2008

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