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Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production Forecasts. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008. AURORA xmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs.

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Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008

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  1. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power PlanInterim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008

  2. AURORAxmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs 18 load-resource zones with transmission Demand forecasts (net conservation) Existing generating resources New generating resource options Natural gas and coal price forecasts CO2 emission price forecasts State restrictions on new coal-fired generation Resource additions needed to achieve state RPS targets Capacity planning reserve margin targets April 29, 2008 2 2

  3. AURORAxmp Electric Market ModelModes and Logic Capacity Expansion Mode: Selects optimal mix of resource additions for meeting future demand Planning Period: 2007 – 2031 Simulation: Every 3rd Hour; M, W, F, Sun; Every 2nd Week Hourly Dispatch Mode: Determines hourly market-clearing wholesale power prices Planning Period: 2007 – 2026 Simulation: Every Hour; Every Day; Every Week April 29, 2008 3 3

  4. Revised Natural Gas PricesPNW West

  5. CO2 Emission Prices

  6. RPS Modeling

  7. New Resource Overnight Capital Cost Assumptions (2006$/kW) April 29, 2008 7

  8. Interim Base CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26 8

  9. Interim High Capital Cost CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26 9

  10. Interim High Capital Cost Case PNW Resource Expansion 2007-26 April 29, 2008 10 10

  11. Base Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices $65 5th Plan Final $60 Biennial Assessment $55 $50 Draft Interim Base Case 2006$/MWh $45 $40 Final Interim Base Case $35 Interim High Capital Cost $30 Case 2007 2012 2017 2022

  12. Sensitivity Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices $65 Interim Base Case $60 Interim High Capital Cost Case $55 Interim High CO2 Price $50 Case 2006$/MWh $45 High Capital Cost/High CO2 Price Case $40 Interim High Fuel Price Case $35 Interim No Incremental $30 RPS Case 2007 2012 2017 2022 April 29, 2008 12

  13. Impact of Incremental RPS Resource Additions on NW Wholesale Power Market Price(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.) 13

  14. Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionWECC Annual Emissions

  15. Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionNW Annual Emissions

  16. Impact of High CO2 Prices on NW Supply(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.) April 29, 2008 16 16

  17. Interim Wholesale Power Price Forecast Paperhttp://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-05.htm

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