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2009 Study Program Update

2009 Study Program Update. TEPPC Meeting November 19 , 2009 ———— WECC Staff. Overview 2009 Study Program. Building 2019 PC1 (the base case) Resources in 2019 PC1 Planning reserve margins Transmission in 2019 PC1 2019 Study Program Progress Results of completed scenarios

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2009 Study Program Update

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  1. 2009 Study Program Update TEPPC Meeting November 19, 2009 ———— WECC Staff

  2. Overview 2009 Study Program • Building 2019 PC1 (the base case) • Resources in 2019 PC1 • Planning reserve margins • Transmission in 2019 PC1 • 2019 Study Program Progress • Results of completed scenarios • Capital costs estimates • 2029 Studies • Completing the study program • During remainder of 2009 • Carry over into early 2010

  3. 2019 Database

  4. Resources in 2019 PC1 The May 2009 LRS data submittal was used to update the thermal resources in TEPPC 2012 database. Additional renewable resources were added to model the 2019 statutory RPS requirements, as calculated by the Resource Team with corrections made through October. A few gap renewable units were relocated to correct congestion issues and utilize the new transfer paths added by the Transmission Team. Initial study results were distributed in October and a few more changes were incorporated before the dataset was frozen on October 23rd.

  5. Summary of incremental thermal resources in the 2019 database Summary of Installed Capacity by Resource Class in 2019 Database (MW): All in Canada 2,774 MW of Class 2 were added in CA/MX 2,205 MW of Class 3 were added in CA/MX 3,055 MW of Class 3 were added in Canada

  6. Transmission in 2019 PC1 • Nicola-Meridian line • Path 3 Uprate • Brownlee Uprate • I-5 Corridor Reinforcement (Troutdale-Castle Rock) • West of McNary Reinforcement • Central Ferry-Lower Monumental • Hemingway-Boardman • Midpoint-Summer Lake rerate • Gateway South, West, & Central (single circuit) • TOT3 Archer/Miracle Mile Ault • Path 27 Upgrade • Sunrise Powerlink • EOR 9300 MW Upgrade • Devers-Colorado River • Palo Verde-North Gila #2 • Path 51 Uprate • Path 54 Uprate • Path 45 Upgrade Starting point: 2012HS2A1 power flow case. Transmission projects added for 2019:

  7. 2019 PC1 Transmission Network • Criteria for adding projects to 2019 PC1: • If the project was under construction. • If the project served local reliability needs. • If the project had committed sponsorship. • What stage of the ROW permit process the project was in. • If the project was in the WECC rating process. • If the project was intended to relieve congestion identified in prior regional or sub-regional studies. • If multiple projects were proposed to accomplish similar objectives, the tendency was to not include any project since there was more uncertainty regarding which one might move forward.

  8. Effect on PRM w/ 3,000 MW of Class 2&3 CTs removed from CA/MX Pre-Removal of CA CTs: Post-Removal of CA CTs:

  9. Effect on Most Congested Paths w/ 3,000 MW of Class 2&3 CTs removed from CA/MX • Ranking of most congested paths did not change • % time > 99% of limit varied only slightly

  10. 2019 Study Program Progress

  11. 2019 Scenarios – Completed • 2019 PC1 – Statutory RPS Base Case • 2019 PC2 – Additional 3,000 MW of wind added in MT/WY • 2019 PC3 – Additional 3,000 MW of wind added in WA/OR • 2019 PC4 – Additional 3,000 MW of wind added in AB/BC • 2019 PC5 – Evaluate impact of Once-Through-Cooling (OTC) and Endangered Species Act (ESA) • Initial runs made but analysis and reporting still to be underway • 2019 PC6 – 3,000 MW of CA solar replaced with NM wind and NV geothermal

  12. 2019 PC1 Statutory RPS Base Case Studying a 15% penetration of renewables WECC-wide (49,300 MW/159,090 GWh) California has the most ambitious RPS energy requirement in WECC at 33% of retail sales (97,869 GWh)

  13. 2019 PC1 Statutory RPS Base Case

  14. 2019 PC1 – Generation Summary

  15. 2019 PC1 – Most Congested Paths

  16. 2019 Wind Change Cases 2019 PC2 – Additional 3,000 MW of wind added to PC1 in MT/WY 2019 PC3 – Additional 3,000 MW of wind added to PC1 in WA/OR 2019 PC4 – Additional 3,000 MW of wind added to PC1 in AB/BC

  17. 2019 PC2 – Most Congested Paths 3000 MW Added The map above illustrates if there was an increase(red)/decrease(green) in % of time a path was at 99% of its limit compared to the 2019 PC1 Base Case. An underlined path indicates that the path was not on the list in the PC1 Scenario. Note: Wyoming wind was added at Laramie River and Miracle Mile substations. As such, DaveJohn_Windstar congestion could simply be the result of resource placement.

  18. 2019 PC3 – Most Congested Paths 3000 MW Added The map above illustrates if there was an increase(red)/decrease(green) in % of time a path was at 99% of its limit compared to the 2019 PC1 Base Case. An underlined path indicates that the path was not on the list in the PC1 Scenario.

  19. 2019 PC4 – Most Congested Paths 3000 MW Added The map above illustrates if there was an increase(red)/decrease(green) in % of time a path was at 99% of its limit compared to the 2019 PC1 Base Case. An underlined path indicates that the path was not on the list in the PC1 Scenario.

  20. Comparison of Most Congested Paths *The cells in red indicates in which scenario the path was most congested.

  21. 2019 Southwest Change Case 2019 PC6 – Replace 3,000 MW of CA solar with equivalent energy from NM wind and NV geothermal

  22. Changes in Annual WECCGeneration User Inputs

  23. 2019 PC6 – Most Congested Paths 3000 MW Shifted The map above illustrates if there was an increase(red)/decrease(green) in % of time a path was at 99% of its limit compared to the 2019 PC1 Base Case. An underlined path indicates that the path was not on the list in the PC1 Scenario.

  24. Capital Cost Estimates • WIEL Group funding E3 to provide data for estimating: • Capital cost of incremental resources • Capital cost of incremental transmission • Incremental “revenue requirement” • Incremental capital costs including cost of capital • Variable costs from Promod

  25. Additional Materials Path to posting: WECC > Committees > Board > TEPPC > TAS > SWG > Documents > 2019 Cases

  26. 2029 Studies • 2029 Scenarios: • 2029 PC1 - Long-term 33% Renewables Case • 2029 EC1-1 - Add transmission reinforcements to address identified congestion • 2029 EC1-2 - Add robust transmission overlay (500kV / 765 kV) • Progress: • Resource and loads are being developed • Work begun on transmission build outs • Case likely to be for studies in January 2010

  27. Remaining Study Program Cases 2019 expansion cases for PC2, PC3, PC4, PC5 and PC6. 2029 base case and transmission build out cases. 2019 PC8 – Increase renewable to 25% and achieve 25-40% CO2 reduction with sensitivity studies of higher efficiency, carbon adders and gas prices.

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