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Total Lightning Collaborations with NASA SPoRT and the National Weather Service

Total Lightning Collaborations with NASA SPoRT and the National Weather Service. Christopher Darden, Brian Carcione , Geoffrey Stano * (And many others) *ENSCO, Inc./NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center Huntsville, AL. Southern Thunder Workshop 11-14 July, 2011

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Total Lightning Collaborations with NASA SPoRT and the National Weather Service

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  1. Total Lightning Collaborations with NASA SPoRT and the National Weather Service Christopher Darden, Brian Carcione, Geoffrey Stano* (And many others) *ENSCO, Inc./NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center Huntsville, AL Southern Thunder Workshop 11-14 July, 2011 Norman, OK

  2. History of Program • Began in 2003 • Expanded initially to Birmingham and Nashville • Next to Morristown • Incorporated Atlanta sensors • 2010 – Efforts expanded to KSC LDAR 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  3. “Directly contributed to several warning decisions” • “…LMA often helps ‘tip the scales’ towards issuing a warning” From the Forecasters • WFO Morristown • Entering Marion County, TN • Weak rotation • Source Density – 80 • POSH – 40% • Favorable environment • Evaluated below severe • Should warning be issued? • No change through 0350 • Wait for another scan? • Lightning jump to 200 sources • Warning issued • 20 minute lead time 0346 UTC 0352 UTC 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  4. From the Forecasters • “LMA spikes correlate well with updrafts…sound meteorology” • “…LMA gives a good map on where to concentrate attention” • “Very good for aviation” 2232 UTC 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  5. AWIPS II Collaborations • Direct partnership with WFO Huntsville • Ingest and display plug-in • One plug-in, many products • SPoRT can support AWIPS I or AWIPS II simultaneously • Can test on SPoRT’s or WFO’s machines 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  6. Success From Training • “Demonstrates use in marginal events” • “LMA started as a curiosity, but is now a procedure for many in the office” • Initial training just on what the product is 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  7. “Super Tuesday” • “LMA indicates where to concentrate attention” • “LMA was not a 1st decision aid but led to stronger wording and increased confidence” • More than just lightning jumps! February 6, 2008 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  8. April 27, 2011 • Primary emphasis on radar • 37 confirmed tornadoes • 3 EF-4s at one time • LMA used • Available time limited • Network suffered damage • Power outages Huntsville Warnings 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  9. Looking Forward • LMA was not an institutional product originally • Forecasters now want more detailed examples • Big challenge • Quantify values • What is “significant” • New training starts this 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  10. Improve Lightning Safety From WFO Melbourne 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  11. New Products? • Improve utility • Rapid accessibility • Quantify output • Important GLM ability? • Less constrained detection efficiency 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

  12. Questions? • Geoffrey Stano • geoffrey.stano@nasa.gov 2011 Southern Thunder Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma 11-14 July, 2011

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