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Challenges

Challenges. Challenges. Loksabha ‘09. Present Civil Society. Strengths Motivation, source of hope, few small successes Weakness Emotional-zero understanding of politics No ground strength(little in Juhu-Bandra ) No ability to work together Opportunity

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Challenges

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  1. Challenges Challenges Loksabha ‘09

  2. Present Civil Society Strengths • Motivation, source of hope, few small successes Weakness • Emotional-zero understanding of politics • No ground strength(little in Juhu-Bandra) • No ability to work together Opportunity • Anger against existing political parties • Define alternative political culture • Bring together NBV Threat • Jumping into fray w/o resources, agenda, understanding • Marginalize and become irrelevant, impotent again

  3. Votes polled - Mumbai 2004 Total 83,10,541 - Polled 39,29,708 (47%) Cong-NCP – 5 seats- 19,39,524 (49%) BJP –SS -1 seat – 17,43,108 (44%) 1999 Total 84,45,768 -Polled 37,97,889 (45%) Cong-others – 1 seat- 14,81,563 (39%) BJP –SS -5 seat – 18,15,710 (48%) Polarization increasing (93% in 2004, 87% in ’99)

  4. Mumbai South COLABA, MUMBADEVI, MALABAR HILL,BYCULLAWORLI, SEWRI 2004 – total 6,20,431, polled 2,74,360 (44%) • Milind Deora INC 1,37,956 (50%) • Jayawanti Mehta BJP 1,27,710 (47% ) • AminSolkar SP 3,957 • BSP- 1,701 1999- total 7,19,281, polled 3,03,022 (42%) • Jayawanti Mehta BJP 1,44,945 (48%) • Murli Deora INC 1,34,702 (44%) • Aziz Lalani SP 19,128  (6%) Deposit threshold – 50,000 votes

  5. Mumbai South -notes • 97% in ‘04 and 92% in ‘99 to main parties • Cong - Muslim votes-Mohd Ali area, slums – Colaba,Cuffe Parade • BJP candidate - Middle class Marathi (SS), Guj, Rajasthani votes • SP, BSP has tried unsuccessfully to get Muslim votes • Non-vote bank (NVB) has never voted • No citizen movement here New scenario • Delimitation has brought Parel and other areas in Mumbai South • This time Mohan Rawle(SS)- winning from 17 years- will have advantage as slum votes, mill workers will be added • Added area does not have strong Cong leader – Sachin Ahir (NCP) will not work for Milind. • MNS may not cut into SS too much as Marathis may back Rawle • Muslim votes will still go to Cong – SP, BSP wont have impact • Arun Gawli may cut into Cong votes • NVB may not come out to vote NO CHANCE

  6. Mumbai South Central MAHIM, WADALA, SION – KOLIWADA,DHARAVI,ANUSHAKTI NAGARCHEMBUR 2004 – total 7,04,452, polled 3,47,976 (49%) • Mohan Rawale SS 1,28,536 (37%) • Sachin Ahir NCP 1,06,348 (31%) • ArunGawli ABHS 92,210 (26%) 1999- total 812576, polled 369130 (45%) , • Mohan Rawale SS 176323 (48%) • A MajeedMemon SP 97287 (26%) • Dada Samant BBM 77747 (21%) Deposit threshold – 60,000 votes

  7. Mumbai South Central-notes • Dharavi is strong for EknathGaikwad with Mohan Rawale moving • Strong Marathi base for SS • Non-vote bank (NVB) has never voted • No citizen movement here New scenario • Delimitation has brought Parel and other areas in Mumbai South NO CHANCE

  8. Mumbai North CentralKURLA, BANDRA – EAST. BANDRA – WEST, VILE PARLE. CHANDIVILI 2004 – total 11,17,487, polled 5,14,598 (46%) • EknathGaikwad INC 2,56,282 (50%) • Manohar Joshi SS 2,42,953 (47%) 1999- total 812576, polled 369130 (45%) , • Manohar Joshi SS 2,94,935 (56%) • Raja Dhale BBM 1,25,940 (24% ) • Adv B C Kamble IND 56,684 (11%) Deposit threshold – 80,000 votes

  9. Mumbai North Central-notes • PriyaDutt will get almost all slum votes • Shifting of Sanjay Nirupam will improve Cong chances • MadhukarSarpotdar will not get middle class votes • Sure shot chances for Priya • Non-vote bank (NVB) can be a factor if civil society gets its act together • Reasonable civil society New scenario • Delimitation has broken Bandra into South Central and Andheri in NW CHANCE- meagre

  10. Mumbai North EastMANKHURD, GHATKOPAR – EAST, GHATKOPAR – WEST ,VIKHROLIBHANDUP,MULUND 2004 – total 19,74,560 , polled 9,25,681 (47%) • GurudasKamat INC 493420 (53%) • KiritSomaiya BJP 394020 (43%) 1999- total 1990340, polled 929549 (47%) • KiritSomaiya BJP 4,00,436 (43%) • GurudasKamat INC 3,93,160 (42%) • Dr Ram Manohar NCP 1,02,513 (11%) Deposit threshold – 1,55,000 votes

  11. Mumbai North East-notes • Mulund is strong for Kirit – BJP • Other areas are strong for GurudasKamat • MNS may cut into BJP votes • High chances for Cong • Non-vote bank (NVB) irrelevant • No citizen movement New scenario • Delimitation has lost Chembur etc in this Constituency NO CHANCE

  12. Mumbai North WestANDHERI WEST, ANDHERI EAST, VERSOVA, JOGESHWARI EASTGOREGAON, DINDOSHI 2004 – total 15,15,745, polled 7,47,726 (49%) • Sunil Dutt INC 3,85,755 (52%) • Sanjay Nirupam SS 3,38,397 (45%) 1999- total 1553015, polled 713586 (46%) • Sunil Dutt INC 3,66,669 (51%) • MadhukarSarpotdar SS 2,81,130 (39%) • RameshDube NCP 41,947 (6%) Deposit threshold – 1,20,000 votes

  13. Mumbai North West-notes • Sanjay Nirupam probable Cong Candidate • Subhash Desai will not get middle class votes • Good chance for Sanjay Nirupam • Non-vote bank (NVB) can be a factor if civil society gets its act together • Reasonable civil society • Weak candidates New scenario • Delimitation has broken Bandra into South Central and Andheri in NW CHANCE – possible to make some impact

  14. Mumbai NorthMALAD WEST, KANDIVILI EAST,CHARKOP, BORIVALIDAHISAR, MAGHATHANE (POISUR) 2004 – total 23,77,866, polled 11,19,367 (47%) Govinda INC 5,59,763 (50%) Ram Naik BJP 51,14,92 (46%) 1999- total 2222240, polled 954260 (43%) Ram Naik BJP 5,17,941 (54%) Chandrakant Gosalia INC 3,63,805 (38%) Deposit threshold – 1,75,000 votes

  15. Mumbai North -notes • Interesting fight, do not know who will be Cong candidate • Ram Naik is very strong and been winning all through • Congress discredited with Govinda’s election • Non-vote bank (NVB) can be a factor if civil society gets its act together • Zero civil society movement New scenario • Delimitation has broken part of original constituency NO CHANCE

  16. Some quick info • Security Deposit lost < 1/6th of polled votes • Maximum spending – 25 lakhs • Not necessary to get registered • Regd parties will get recognised only if • 5 years activity, plus1 elected out of 25 in General Election or 1 out of 30 in assembly, or • Votes should be 6% of total votes polled

  17. Quick facts • In recent Delhi Assembly polls 90-97% lost deposit, BPD party of 20 IITians, 15000 members and good donations got total 162 votes • Post 26/11, in an epoll for AP, as on 11th feb ‘09 • Loksatta which is 13 year old, has 600000 members (most internet savvy)and excellent agenda and leadership has got 49 votes out of 2458(3%)

  18. Electioneering • Offices Each constituency consists of minimum 4 constituencies, thus • Four PR offices • One head office Manpower – for 30 days – 85 volunteers • 10 volunteers per office – 50 nos • 25 volunteers with candidates • 10 volunteers working in back office Manpower – for 10 days – 1000 volunteers • Volunteers to give voter slip and campaign – 1: 1500 Manpower – on Election day – 3000 volunteers • 400 booths x 5 volunteers • 1000 volunteers to get 300 voters each

  19. Publicity Media & Endorsement by Stars, VIPs and prominent personalities Materials • Voter slips – 15 lakh • Flags / Symbols – 10,000 nos • Posters – 500 – 1,000 nos • Appeal ledgers – 30,00,000 nos • CDs , presentation team and equipments • Badges, T Shirts - 1000 • Other Items

  20. Funds Office Establishment – Rs 5 lakhs Office Operation (day to day) – Rs 3 lakhs Publicity materials – Rs 30 lakhs Volunteer expenses (Travel, food, out-of-pocket) – Rs 3 lakhs Logistic expenses, incl. election day – Rs 5 lakhs Miscelleneous – Rs 4 lakhs Total – Rs 50 lakhs

  21. Case study MUMBAI NORTH – WEST •  Marathi Voters 5.50 Lakh (Of this 0.70 LakhDalits) • Hindu North Indians 2.80 Lakh • Muslims 2.70 Lakh • Others (Guj/Marwari/Sindhi/Punjabi/Parsi) 3.60 Lakh • Christians 0.50 Lakh Total 15.10 lakh

  22. Present MLAS (4 nos) Congress • Suresh Shetty • BaldevKhoja Shivsena • GajananKirtikar • Subhash Desai Present Corporators (37 nos) ShivSena 16 BJP 3 Congress 13 NCP 2 Samajwadi Party 1 MNS 1 Ind. 1

  23. NOTE: 97% of the polled votes went to the main two candidates, only 23574 votes went to the rest Other Candidates • Loksatta Party has already made Public announcement of putting up all six candidates. • PPI, Jago alliance will put up a Candidates. • There may be around 25 party candidates including SP, BSP, many new parties, rebel candidates etc • Around 25 / 30 independent candidates • Therefore CITIZEN candidate’s will have to fight against all these forces.

  24. Our Resources a) Manpower As far as Manpower resource is concerned except Juhu, we don’t have any assured organizations and volunteers. Juhu and Bandra volunteers do not think that this time Loksabha is the right time and place for putting up candidate. b) Finances Regarding financial Resources we will need to assess separately. c) Media How much Media help we can genuinely generate will be very decisive? Please note LokSatta with all its Funds, P.R. and Clout could get very minimal publicity for J.P’s press conference. The media support will have to be consistent during the entire campaign in order to be effective.

  25. d) Celebrity endorsement This is one important factor which can play major role if we get the proper backing. e) Back office We need to study the voters list Building by Building. We need contacts in each Ward / building to give us links to the voters. f) Management A proper war zone needs to be created with some excellent managers who understand ground situations

  26. Other parties - Shivsena • Released 10 page booklet (50000 copies) saying that Voter list is its Bhagwad geeta • Aim of booklet • Knowing all voters in one’s division • Meeting each voter again and again • Bringing floating voters towards the party • Making our voter list error-free • Getting voter cards to all our voters • Our voters to have 100% voting • Increasing number of our voters from last elections

  27. Shivsena - II • Contains instructions on the voter list • Understanding voters’ list w.r.t errors • Training and group activity on reading and deciding on activity. • Command structure for activities • Behavior pattern during training sessions • Campaigning process • Information gathering • Converting voters to SS • Marking 100% SS voters to 0% SS voters • Etc. etc

  28. He that fights and runs away, may turn and fight another day; but he that is in battle slain, will never rise to fight again. -Taciturn The unforgivable crime is soft hitting. Do not hitat all if it can be avoided; but never hit softly.-Theodore Roosevelt

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