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A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems

A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems. Presented to the World Future Society July 30, 2007 David Keenan Steven Vetter Hank Lederer. Roadmaps. Semiconductor Roadmaps for example Equipment Materials Processes Market and applications. DRAM Feature Size.

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A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems

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  1. A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems Presented to the World Future Society July 30, 2007 David Keenan Steven Vetter Hank Lederer

  2. Roadmaps • Semiconductor Roadmaps for example • Equipment • Materials • Processes • Market and applications

  3. DRAM Feature Size Source: Sematech

  4. DRAM Technology Options Roadmap Source: Sematech

  5. Semiconductor Roadmap Technology Characteristics Source: Sematech

  6. Nanotechnology Development • Phase 1 - Passive nanoparticles • 2000-2005 • In products today • Phase 2 - Active nanoparticles • 2005-2010 • In development and demonstration • Phase 3 - Nanosystems • 2010-2015 • Phase 4 - Molecular Manufacturing • Beyond 2015

  7. Categories of Nanotechnology • Four categories: • Top down, not atomically precise (like chips) • Top down, atomically precise (can’t be done) • Bottom-up, not atomically precise (like spray-on materials) • Bottom-up, atomically precise • Highest value-added • Lowest waste • Most complex, multi-disciplinary • Enables large variety of products made by molecular nanosystems • Highly disruptive technology • Need a Roadmap to guide R&D

  8. Terminology • Nanosystems • Interacting nanoscale structures, components, and devices • Functional nanosystems • Nanosystems that process material, energy, or information • Advanced functional nanosystems • Functional nanosystems that incorporate one or more nanoscale components that have atomically precise structures • Productive nanosystems • Functional nanosystems that make atomically precise structures, components, and devices under programmable control • Atomically precise manufacturing • Essential for advanced functional nanosystems and productive nanosystems

  9. Summary of Roadmap Vision Elements for Productive Nanosystems Technology • Revolutionize the chemical/materials industry by synthesizing nanostructured materials • Aid in manufacturing platform nanomaterial building blocks to create novel nanostructured material formulations • Require fundamental understanding of structure-property-processing relationships at the nanoscale to accelerate development • Require a toolkit of kinetic and thermodynamic modeling capabilities and a database on key nanomaterial building block properties • Offer new synthetic methodologies based on understanding of nanoscale physics, chemistry, and engineering principles • Offer new approaches to manufacturing nanomaterial building blocks and nanocomposites due to its biological inspiration • Enable high-throughput nanoscale screening reactors to create novel material solutions and reveal unique structure-property relationships

  10. Stages of Technology Development

  11. Roadmap Leaders • With contributions from • Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) • NanoBusiness Alliance (NBA) • Nano Science and Technology Institute (NSTI) • Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) • Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO)

  12. Steering Committee Dr. Paul Alivasatos Dr. Mauro Ferrari Doon Gibbs William A. Goddard III Dr. William A. Haseltine Steve Jurvetson Alex Kawczak Charles M. Lieber Scott Mize John Randall Jim Roberto Nadrian Seeman Rick Snyder Dr. J. Fraser Stoddart Ted Waitt

  13. Roadmap Goals • Produce a document that is “actionable” • Articulate why APM, AFN, & Productive Nanosystems are important, and their critical impact on the development of nanotechnology in multiple timeframes • Assess the current state of Atomically Precise Manufacturing development • Identify enabling technologies for development of Advanced Functional Nanosystems & Productive Nanosystems

  14. Roadmap Goals continued • Develop scenarios of the possible development pathways • Identify early applications to serve as drivers • Propose “next steps” in collaborative R&D for each pathway targeted at critical enabling technologies necessary to develop prototypes • Identify critical issues for each pathway and prioritize the shortcomings of existing enabling technology platforms • Provide usable metrics for measuring progress

  15. Benefits of Productive Nanosystems Technology Roadmap • Multidisciplinary framework to shape the visions of future Industry Roadmaps • Help companies in developing strategic technology plans, including alliance opportunities with other companies • Basis for coordinating technology research goals and development programs across industries • Prioritizes major unmet needs and sets technology development targets to fulfill these needs • Aids in forecasting emerging technology platforms • Identifies emerging value growth opportunities

  16. Estimated Multi-Industry Impact of Nanotechnology Exceeds $1 Trillion by 2015 Sustainability $45 B Healthcare $30 B Tools $20 B Aerospace $70 B Materials $340 B Chemical Manufacture $100 B Pharmaceuticals $180 B Electronics $300 B Source: National Science Foundation

  17. Productive Nanosystems: Capabilities and Applications Levels of Productive Capability Some Applications Control of monomer sequence in a chain Some Atomically Precise Products designer catalysts engineered membranes • advanced materials • clean energyproduction • clean water • improvedhealth care • improvedcomputation • improvedtransportation waterpurification binders for directingself assembly smart therapeuticdevices fuel cellmembranes Control of monomer positions in a solid polymeric nanoparticles molecular electronicdevices thin, flexiblesolar cell arrays ceramicnanoparticles petabyte RAMchips programmable cellrepair systems Control of atomic positions in a solid semiconductordevices superstrongsmart materials nanoelectric circuits superstrongfibers productivenanosystems aerospacecomposites molecular machines

  18. Percentage of Roadmap: Horizon IV Horizon II Horizon III Horizon I

  19. NNI and other Funding • National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) has devoted an average of $1 Billion per year to US R&D since 2001 • Rest of world governments ~ $4 B/yr

  20. Complexity vs. Cost of Phases • Many simple nanomaterials have been developed within NNI grant budgets • Several complex nanomaterials are being demonstrated; costs are higher, more time • Nanosystems may involve more budget than NNI can sustain, and longer timelines • Molecular manufacturing has received very little NNI funding, so far

  21. Possible Pathways • Dry – diamondoid • Nanorex, Zyvex • Wet – DNA/RNA – life chemistry • DNA Walker / Seeman, Rothmund • Wet/Dry – combinatorial chemistry • Rungs and ladders / Schafmeister

  22. Indications and Implications of Nanotechnology Progress Near and far future impacts in • Medicine • Energy • Environment / Sustainability • Manufacturing • Security / Military • Space Development • Computation

  23. Medicine / Pharmaceuticals • Gold nanoparticles attach to cancer cells and permit non-invasive IR heating

  24. Nanoscale Medical Devices • Nanomedicine by • Robert A. Freitas Jr. • Volume I 1999 • Volume IIA 2003 • Volume IIB in progress • Volume III planned • First thorough analysis of possible applications of molecular nanotechnology to medicine and medical devices

  25. Respiriocytes Artificial mechanical red blood cell ~1 micron dia. sphere Diamondoid 1000-atm pressure vessel Deliver 236x more O2 than natural red cells 18 billion structural atoms plus 9 billion O2

  26. Clottocytes • Artificial mechanical blood platelet • Response time 100-1000x faster than natural system • ~ 2 micron spheres release locally sticky mesh that traps blood cells to stop bleeding

  27. Artificial Neurons

  28. Energy • Batteries for pluggable hybrid vehicles • Hydrogen storage for fuel cells • Solar energy

  29. Energy MIT nanowires for Li ion batteries Gold and cobalt oxide self-assembled on modified virus

  30. Environment / Sustainability • Craig Venter Synthetic Genomics minimal lifeforms • Method for modified microorganisms plants to produce ethanol directly from cellulose • Another to produce hydrogen directly from sunlight

  31. Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels • MicroFab technologies – ink jet

  32. Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels • Nanosolar, Inc. – direct printing • NJIT – printing and directly painted-on

  33. Design for Molecular Manufacturing

  34. Modeling for Molecular Manufacturing Source Nanorex

  35. Desktop Manufacturing

  36. Convergent assembly using highly parallel systems

  37. Desktop Manufacturing • Nanorex NanoEngineer-1 • Play nanofactory.mov 5 min

  38. Surveillance • Ubiquitous Surveillance • Sensors/Transmitters shrink –> smart dust • Can see what everyone is doing – stop crime • Privacy vs. security • Who watches the watchers?

  39. DARPA Sensor Challenge

  40. Security / Military • Military Intelligence is not just an oxymoron • It provides a strong edge in conflict • National immune system • MIT’s ISN Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies • Personal enhanced immune system • Weapons disarmament • Volatile transitions http://web.mit.edu/ISN/

  41. Space Development • Materials with 80x strength/weight ratio of Al or Steel • Private orbital craft • Finally realize Gerard K. O’Neill’s vision of Space Settlements

  42. Island One

  43. Inside Island One

  44. Larger Settlement

  45. Space Development • Eventually, colonize other star systems • Mobile space settlement • Constant (1-g) acceleration / deceleration • Carry portable fusion generator • Get to Alpha Centauri in about 8 years (4 subjective years) • Alternatively, teleportation • Move receiver/assembler to destination • Can use laser-propelled solar sail • Analyze molecular structure of people / objects • Transmit analysis • Assemble copy

  46. Electronics / Computation • K. Eric Drexler’s PhD Thesis (MIT) – Nanosystems • 1992 Computer Science book of the year

  47. Rod Logic Sugar-cube-size computer 1015 MIPS

  48. Electronics / Computation • Ray Kurzweil forecasts human-level intelligence ~2020 • Once achieved, “evolution” will greatly accelerate

  49. Productive Nanosystems New Futures in • Medicine • Energy • Environment / Sustainability • Manufacturing • Security / Military • Space Development • Computation

  50. Roadmap Status International Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems to be unveiled October 9-10, 2007 in Arlington, VA For a complete program, see www.foresight.org or www.sme.org/nanosystems

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