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An Impact of SFMR Surface Wind Observations on Hurricane Landfall Forecasts and Warnings

An Impact of SFMR Surface Wind Observations on Hurricane Landfall Forecasts and Warnings. Peter G. Black NOAA/AOML/HRD James Franklin NOAA/NCEP/TPC 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 7-11 March, 2005 Jacksonville, Florida. SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational System.

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An Impact of SFMR Surface Wind Observations on Hurricane Landfall Forecasts and Warnings

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  1. An Impact of SFMR Surface Wind Observations on Hurricane Landfall Forecasts and Warnings Peter G. Black NOAA/AOML/HRD James Franklin NOAA/NCEP/TPC 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 7-11 March, 2005 Jacksonville, Florida

  2. SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational System • Demonstrated accuracy compared to GPS dropsonde observations (Uhlhorn and Black, 2003) • 16 AOC Operational SFMR flights into Frances, Ivan, Jeanne- 2004 • Pioneered new recco strategy: drop GPS sondes at SFMR surface wind radii of 34, 50 and 64 kt (Uhlhorn, Rogers- HRD) • Comparison with ‘04 dropsondes and HRD prototype SFMR (Uhlhorn, next talk)

  3. SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational System • April, 2003- Lockheed completes study report on adaptation of SFMR to WC-130J aircraft- recommends pod design. • Summer, 2003- Design and fabrication of P3 wing pylon for operational SFMR. • Summer, 2003- Second SFMR ordered from Pro-Sensing with improved real-time self-calibration.

  4. Operational SFMR Antenna and Electronics Cylinder Layout

  5. Operational SFMR Pod on 43RF, left wing looking aft

  6. Operational SFMR Pod on 43RF left wing, looking forward

  7. Close-up of operational SFMR Pod under left wing- prototype SFMR fuselage-mounted antenna in background above yellow ladder.

  8. Operational SFMR antenna mounted inside left wing Pod

  9. SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational System FRANCES (1) 5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA AIRCRAFT. (2) 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF FRANCES. A DROP MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 938 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 144 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD OF THE NOAA P-3 PLANE JUST MEASURED 118 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS. ……INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS...MAKING FRANCES A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

  10. SFMR 2005- Transition from Prototype to Operational System FRANCES (3) 5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004 DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE. (4) 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT. THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

  11. SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational System IVAN (5) 5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004 THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA ONBOARD THE NOAA P3 PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IVAN. (6) 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF IVAN IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 929 MB ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 115-120 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 120 KT. (7) 5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 933 MB...AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER REPORTED 108 KT. IT APPEARS THAT IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY.

  12. SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational System JEANNE (8) 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. (9) 5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 THIS AFTERNOON...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JEANNE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...BUT AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF ONLY 95 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 76-KT SURFACE WIND...WHERE A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT WAS REPORTED IN THE SAME WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT (10) 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004 ...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE...OR SFMR...WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 97 KT AT 5000 FEET AND THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WIND WAS 87 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...

  13. SFMR 2004- Transition from Operational System to Recco • 2003- Lockheed SFMR feasibility study • GOAL for 2004, accomplished: • NWS SFMR statement of need • Obtained Supplemental support for funding of SFMR system for WC-130J aircraft flown by AFRC 53rd WRS

  14. WC-130J SFMR Pod-mount Installation

  15. WC-130J Pod-Mounted SFMR Installation blow-up.

  16. SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational System • Aug, Sep 2004- One pod-mounted AOC operational unit, HRD/IWRS prototype and UMASS research SFMR participate in first operational SFMR flights • 2004 RESULTS: • 16 flights in 3 landfalling storms over 3 weeks • Documented impacts on 10 advisories, all at 5 pm • Supplemental support achieved for accelerated validation • Supplemental support achieved ($10.5M) for SFMR transition to WC-130J reconnaissance aircraft • OUTLOOK FOR 2005 • Pylon-mounted operational SFMR mounted on both NOAA WP-3D aircraft: spare ready in case of unit malfunction (see Al Goldstein AOC poster) • Industry support in place (see Ivan Popstefanija ProSensing poster) • Accelerated evaluation, calibration effort in place (Eric Uhlhorn- next talk) • Sustained evaluation, calibration design in place for 2005 and beyond (JHT) • Interface with AFRC and Lockheed on AFRC operational SFMR units • Implement SFMR on NOAA G-IV aircraft

  17. SFMR 2004- Acknowledgements and Thanks • Bob Dumont, Sam Williamson, Floyd Hauth, Bill Barney (OFCM) • 1980, 1990’s: SFMR maintenance contracts (HRD sharing) • 1990’s: IWRS/HRD prototype, dipole antenna for WC-130 • 2002: funds for 2 AOC operational units • 2003: funds for 3rd AOC operational unit with matching AOC support of engineering, pylon design and fabrication and SFMR cal upgrades • Capt. Bob Maxson, Capt Steve Kozak (AOC) • AOC engineering: Al Goldstein, Terry Lynch, Jim Roles - NOAA implementation from 1984 (Earl) to 2004 (Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) • Max Mayfield (Jerry Jarrell, Bob Sheets)- NHC operational support • James Franklin (NHC), Gen D. L. Johnson- NWS statement of need • Eric Uhlhorn (HRD)- SFMR validation • Prof. Calvin Swift (NASA, UMASS)- SFMR inventor • Dr. Mark Goodberlet (ProSensing, Inc)- designer • Ivan Popstefanija (Quadrant, ProSensing)- industry implementation, fabrication, pylon SFMR design (with NRL support) • Louanne Powell, Col Steve Renwick- AFRC implement, LM study • NOAA Legislative Affairs- 2004 Supplemental for AFRC transition

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