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Exercise II

Exercise II. Dirk Hollnack. How can we assess the expected loss?. Hazard. Vulnerability. Exposed values. Risk = Function. Example Scenario Earthquake. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario. XYZ insurance company. Country X. (Name of company). Class of business: Fire. Accumulation

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Exercise II

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  1. Exercise II Dirk Hollnack

  2. How can we assess the expected loss? Hazard Vulnerability Exposed values Risk = Function

  3. ExampleScenario Earthquake

  4. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario XYZ insurance company Country X (Name of company) Class of business: Fire Accumulation control report Earthquake X Storm Residential Flood Commercial Industrial Gross Net retention 30.06.2008 Quote and for Sums insured in force at X 100% of treaty (30.6., 31.12.) (Name of treaty) $ (000) Currency: Deductible: % of SI: No deductible No. Accumulation assessment zones Liabilities (not reduced by deductibles) Buildings Contents LoP Total 1 Zone 1 35,600 9,500 -- 45,100 2 Zone 2 132,720 112,000 7,960 252,680 3 Zone 3 17,920 7,460 960 26,340 4 Zone 4 23,800 21,000 -- 44,800 5 Zone 5 2,700 1,740 690 5,130 6 Zone 6 -- 110 -- 110 7 Zone 7 5,260 16,420 2,000 5,470 8 Zone 8 4,160 3,880 -- 6,000 20,000 5,000 20,000 9 Zone 9 10 Zone 10 3,740 2,520 -- 5,000 1-10 Total country 245,900 168,120 31,610 445,630 X X X X 45,000 Examplary !

  5. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario 4 5 2 Capital 3 1 6 7 8 10 9 Liability Zones Examplary !

  6. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario I = VI I = VII I = VIII I = IX Scenarios 4 5 2 Capital 3 1 7 6 8 9 10 Examplary !

  7. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario Loss Ratios in % of Sum insured Examplary !

  8. Exercise II Results Dirk Hollnack

  9. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario Scenario North Examplary !

  10. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario Scenario South Examplary !

  11. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario Losses Scenario North Optimistic: 0.3% * 98 000 + 1.9% * 25 000 = 769 Conservative: 0.3% * 208 000 + 1.9% * 50 000 = 1574 Examplary !

  12. Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario Losses Scenario South Optimistic: 0.3% * 12 100 + 1.9% * 19600 + 7% * 14 000 +18% * 4500 = 2 199 Conservative: 0.3% * 8 100 + 1.9% * 11 700 + 7% * 19 000 + 18 % * 13 500 = 4 007 Examplary !

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