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Explore the influence of natalist policies like taxes, welfare, Medicaid, and maternity leave on fertility rates. Analyze effects on rational choice theory, income, prices, and female workforce participation. Discover historical fertility transitions and the modern work-family balance challenges.
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Fertility:Other Readings • Kimmel/Hoffman book: • Chapter 4 by Averett (note she is coauthor for text too). • “Natalist” policies: policies that affect fertility, whether by intent or otherwise (US: no policies designed to affect fertility but still policies have effect). • Four policies analyzed: • Taxes • Welfare • Medicaid • Maternity leave.
Effects of Policies on Fertility • Review of fertility theory • 1) Fertility as consequence of rational choice; expressed as a function of income, prices, and preferences. • 2) Although theory cannot predict for sure if female wage will cause fertility, most empirical work supports this (but recall new theory!). • Fertility effects of taxes: • Personal exemption: each person in household (including kids) exempts some of income from taxable Y. • $ exemption covers 4-9% of total costs of raising a child. • Yes fertility.
Continued: Fertility Effects of Policy • EITC: • $ value varies by family size; • most available for single parents. • Recent research paper could not establish a link between EITC and fertility. • Cash Welfare and Fertility: • $ only available in families w/kids; • $ value as # kids . • Family caps imposed by some states. • Evidence mixed—at most, welfare $$ plays small role; • Concern that imposition of family cap might abortions.
Cont.: Fertility Effects of Policy • Maternity leave and fertility: • FMLA: Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993: • quite controversial: • US is only industrialized not to guarantee paid maternity leave; • requiring firms to finance such leave raises costs. • Yes evidence that maternity leave might fertility.
Work/Family Balance in the US • “Mommy Track”: by Felice Schwartz in 1989 HBR article. • Recent popular media stories: • Professional women leaving workforce due to difficulty in balancing work and family. • For some: motherhood provides natural opportunity for “career change” • Anecdotal evidence can lead to discrimination. • Some empirical evidence, but weak. • Why? Motherhood pay gap? • Yes a significant gap but not for college-educated. • Yes fertility delay can gap.
Fertility Transition • Longer view of fertility trends • 1) Fertility transition: • fertility from 1870 to 1930s. • Related to economic development (and agriculture). • Observed in all countries (even newly-developing countries today). • Persistent difficulty in explaining timing; some due to female education. • 2) Baby boom: • Big fertility from 1945 – 1964. • Partially response to delayed fertility and economic growth.
