Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Eastern Ontario april 15, 2013

1. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Eastern Ontarioapril 15, 2013

2. IPCC Definition UNFCCC definition Climate change in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. (IPCC 2007) What is Climate change?

3. Projected Changes in climate in eastern Ontario by the end of the century - temperature Annual Mean Temperatures in Eastern Ontario are projected to increase 3-4 degrees Celsius by 2100

4. Projected Changes in climate in eastern Ontario by the end of the century - precipitation Difference in Precipitation by 2100 (%) 60 to 70 50 to 60 40 to 50 30 to 40 20 to 30 10 to 20 0 to 10 0 to -10 -10 to -20 -20 to -30 -30 to -40 Source: MNR Precipitation amounts and patterns will change • 0-10% less annual precipitation • More precipitation falling as rain, less snowfall • Higher risk of • “events”

5. Gradual increase in average annual temperatures • Greater changes seen in seasonal and monthly averages • Minimum temperatures increasing • Changes in average precipitation amounts and patterns • Increase in frequency and severely of ‘extreme events’ • Increased weather variability Key issues associated with climate change

6. Adaptation and mitigation should go hand-in-hand, both are equally important! Adaptation: Managing what we cannot avoid Takes place through adjustments to reduce vulnerability or to enhance resilience in response to observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme weather events. Mitigation: Avoiding what we cannot manage Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions through; • use of energy efficient vehicles and buildings • well-planned communities • public transit systems • reduction in industrial emissions Climate Adaptation and mitigation

7. Being proactive in adapting to climate change Developing a proactive, planned response to climate change impacts, which includes developing the capacity to respond to unexpected impacts and extremes, makes good sense for the community. Source: MNR

8. Adaptation is needed at all levels • Government agencies (federal, provincial, municipal, etc.) • Conservation Authorities (watershed scale) • Your community – industry, business, local organizations such as lake associations • On-shore (riparian and terrestrial systems) • In waterways • You • Take measures on your property and in your community Who should Adapt?

9. It is important in every community to have local “champions” who; • understand the importance of taking adaptive measures, and • are willing to work with the community to bring about necessary changes Local Champions Local champions are usually a small group of individuals from government, industry, and the public who understand the importance of a cooperative approach to working towards adaptation

10. Largest inland lake in Ontario • Population of 350,000 in watershed • 47% of land area is agricultural • 65 rare species • Watershed plan • Difference from most watershed plans is level of protection through legislation – Lake Simcoe Protection Act (2008) lake simcoe protection plan

11. 4 guiding principles • Short and long term priorities identified • Includes targets, indicators, and policies • 4 policy categories • ‘Designated’ policies • ‘Have regard to’ policies • ‘Monitoring’ policies • Strategic actions (no legal effect) • Builds on other provincial policies, plans, and acts (e.g. PPS, Clean Water Act) Lake simcoe protection plan (cont’d)

12. Plan organized by priorities • Aquatic life • Water quality • Shorelines and natural heritage • Impacts – invasive species, climate change, recreational activities • The Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy (LSEMS) ‘informs’ the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan Lake simcoe protection plan (cont’d)

13. Objective to “Protect natural resilience of the entire Lake Simcoe ecosystem” • List of potential impacts of climate change on other areas of the plan • Identification of need for development of adaptation strategy • Risk assessment • Further research of impacts on specific sectors • Integrated monitoring program • Development of sector specific, integrated adaptation plans Lake Simcoe Protection Plan Climate change adaptation

14. Draft Lake Simcoe Adaptation Strategy Will include suggestions for Adaptive Actions Source: MNR

15. Look at studies and work done in other areas and identify similarities with local situation • More efficient than duplicating effort • Identify; • applicable recommendations and actions • differences, modifications need to adjust to local impacts • Local data and information gaps Learning from ‘best practices’

16. 4 guiding principles • Ecosystem approach • Consider interactions and effects of all elements within the system • Subwatershedapproach • Policies and management actions are scaled appropriately, either specific to a subwatershed, across a number of subwatersheds, or across a watershed • Precautionary approach • “Caution will be exercised to protect the environment when there is uncertainty about environmental risks” • Adaptive management approach • Continuously monitor outcomes of all actions and modify approaches where needed in a timely fashion What can we draw from the lake simcoe protection plan?

17. Set priorities, first by developing strategic plans to protect resilience of natural systems and functions (green infrastructure). Include consideration of climate change impactsin policies and management plans. Identify changing risks and vulnerabilities to ‘traditional’ land use practices and ‘gray’ infrastructure. Develop and implement monitoring programs to identify and address local knowledge gaps and measure progress. Identify collaborative opportunities. What can we draw from the lake simcoe protection plan? (cont’d)

18. Fish, Fisheries, and Water Resources: Adapting to Ontario’s Changing Climate- MVC • integrated watershed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling of the Mississippi River watershed • the changing composition of the local fish community • public workshops held over two days • Agency information workshops for Mississippi watershed and area in 2007/2008, 2012 – MVC • Organizational review of climate change impacts – RVCA Local Work-to-Date on Climate Change Adaptation - examples

19. Mississippi-Rideau Climate Change Adaptation Vulnerability Studies

20. Focus within the Mississippi-Rideau Source Protection Region boundaries • Mississippi Valley and Rideau Valley watersheds • Collection of sector specific studies (themes) of changing vulnerabilities in the region – green infrastructure • Geographical scale of each study will be unique • Building on completed studies, available data, and knowledge gap identification Mississippi-Rideau Climate Change Adaptation Vulnerability Studies

21. Practioner’s guide to climate change in ontario’s ecosystems • Released in by MNR in 2011 • Developed to provide guidance to MNR staff and other resource practitioners on how to mainstream climate change adaptation into daily business • Will be used as a guide in upcoming local vulnerability studies

22. Estimating Future Vulnerabilities and risks • Risk assessment is used in many fields to think about future issues. • A complimentary approach called ‘vulnerability assessment’ may provide valuable insights, particularly from an ecosystem perspective. • “Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.” IPCC, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Source: MNR

23. Water management (quantity) in the Mississippi River • Surface water levels • Surface water intakes • Waterpower • Water quality in the region • Nutrient loading • Algal blooms • Provincially significant wetlands • Species at Risk remediation • Terrestrial ecosystem management • Agricultural water needs Proposed Themes within MR Region for Vulnerability Studies

24. Identify climate change impacts locally and potential adaptation options • Changes in risk and vulnerability • Use this (and other) information to help prioritize adaptation plans and actions • Develop collaborative partnerships • Eastern Ontario climate change adaptation working group • –multi-sector • Potential for smaller local groups to identify local scale impacts and carry out adaptation projects Next steps in local adaptation work

25. “Climate change is likely to become one of the most significant drivers of biodiversity loss by the end of the century” Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005

26. During preliminary climate change adaptation study done in 2007-2008 MVC staff came to realization that a healthy, functioning ecosystem is more resilient to changes and variations in climate • This is reflected in much of the literature from around the world on adaptation strategies • Healthy ecosystems support diversity and vs. versa • Natural corridors and linkages important as climate changes Final thoughts on sustainability and climate change

27. Economic benefits to protecting natural functions and systems are becoming more apparent over time • Worth considering how to do things in a more sustainable fashion • Water conservation • Protection of water quality • Wise land use choices Protecting and enhancing our ‘green infrastructure’

28. Many people cite ‘quality of life’ as important which includes access to clean water and air, natural systems such as forests • Should include retention/protection of quality of life factors in land use design Sustainable options can be considered ‘no regret’ actions as beginning steps in adaptation CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STARTS WITH WISE, SUSTAINABLE USE AND PROTECTION OF THE SAME NATURAL VALUES THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO OUR COMMUNITIES SUSTAINABILITY MAKES GOOD SENSE

29. THANKS!