NOAA operational ocean modeling

1. NOAA operational ocean modeling A joint NWS – NOS – IOOS enterprise Ming Ji NOAA/NCEP/OPC Frank Aikman III NOAA/NOS/CSDL Hendrik L. Tolman NOAA/NCEP/EMC

2. Background • 2004 Science Advisory Board and NOAA response • A three-level system • Global and basin scale operational Backbone Capability at NCEP (partnership with Navy) • On NOAA operational super computers • Coastal Operational Ocean Backbone Capability at NOS, integrated with NCEP effort • Transitioning to NOAA operational super computers • Operational localmodeling at IOOS Regional Associations • RA Operational modeling to adhere to NOAA standards

3. History • Louis Uccellini and Ming Ji at previous MARACOOS meeting (Fall 2012)

4. Strategic Approach in Ocean Modeling • Strategic alignment with Navy on Global Ocean model development • Strategic alignment with NOS on coastal model development • Strategic partnership with the IOOS community • Linking backbone to local modeling for applications/services • Standardization, realtime coastal/marine/biological data flow • Community modeling and O2R • Engage private sector through IOOS RAs for a broad range of local service delivery

5. From the whiteboard … • There are already many models in place, but particularly the interaction with the IOOS RAs still needs to be worked out in many details.

6. GEFS Evolution To 2018

7. NAEFS Evolution To 2018

8. Mesoscale

9. Seasonal Climate

10. NCEP • Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) • Based on community HYCOM model. • Strong collaboration with Navy. • Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP). • GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle). • Timeline: • Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVOCEANO (NCODA) initialization (daily feed from NAVO). • FY2014-15: full initialization at NCEP. • Developing agreement with NRL on NCODA.

11. RTOFS • Presently five major efforts: • Eddy resolving ocean modeling. • Eddy resolving ocean initialization. • Coupled modeling for hurricanes. • Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS. • Episodic tracers (with shelf life) • All RTOFS models presently based on HYCOM • RTOFS represents line of products. RTOFS-Atlantic Operational 2005 Operational 10/25/2011 RTOFS-Global Live testing RTOFS-HWRF Under development RTOFS-NEMS Operational 07/24/2012 RTOFS-ET-Pac

12. RTOFS-Global

13. RTOFS (HYCOM) Evolution To 2018

14. NCEP • Future RTOFS (2015-2018) Summary • Global model at 1/12 degree resolution • Regional models for Arctic, North Atlantic, East Pacific and possibly West Pacific at 3km nominal resolution (based on NCEP user requirements) • Intend to go to ensemble based systems by 2018 depending on computer resources (particularly for ice) • Full coupling (Atmos-Ocean-Wave-Ice) particularly in ice zones

15. NOS Systems Evolution To 2018

16. IOOS • Partnership withIOOS at NWS & NOS • Data standardization and management through IOOS: • RTOFS models available in NetCDF on NOMADS • This was a major change driven by IOOS requirements • Critical Partner for real time coastal/marine/biological data flow • Providing requirements for RTOFS • E.g., resolution, accuracy, … • NOS collaboration with the IOOS modeling community • Develop, agree & adhere to community standards • Includes frameworks, data flow, products • Effectively leveraging Testbeds (e.g. IOOS COMT)

17. Summary • The 3-level framework from SAB review • Strategic partnerships are essential elements • Navy, NOS, IOOS community • NOAA-IOOS RAs paradigm toward service delivery

18. Issues/challenges for discussion • R2O-O2R: Connecting Backbone to local models • Define operations • How to run models (CONOPS) • How to exchange data and information • E.g., Standards • Coordinate operations and service delivery • E.g., the Weather Enterprise

19. Thank you!

20. NOS • Operational Forecast Systems (OFS) for the Coastal and Estuarine Environment in NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) OUTLINE The state of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems • Requirements and geographic coverage • CBOFS, NGOFS and ESTOFS examples • OFS products & dissemination • The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) • Objective:More efficient R&D, O&M • Challenges and Applications • Collaboration with the IOOS Ocean Modeling Community • Coupled Model Systems

21. SST Salinity NOS • NOS Marine Modeling Requirements • Develop a national network of operational hydrodynamic models providing nowcasts and short-term • (0 – 48 hr.) forecasts for: • Support of safe & efficient navigation • Water levels for under-keel clearance • Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability • Emergency response • HAZMAT • Search & Rescue • Homeland Security • Environmentally sound management of the coastal zone • Ecosystem applications • Marine geospatial applications

23. Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) CBOFS (3-D) Operational 04/11 Currents Temp Salt CBOFS (2-D) Operational 08/01

24. Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS) NGOFS is the first NOS OFS to extend the model domain to US shelf waters to fill gaps between global/basin models and coastal/estuarine models. NGOFS covers 6 NOS PORTS

25. Atlantic Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml • Computes surge with tides for forecasting and for coupling to WAVEWATCH III® • Applies ADCIRC model • 254,565 nodes • Coastal resolution ≈ 3 km • Depth-averaged barotropic • 6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast • Pacific model in development http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/

26. NOS Coastal Operational Forecast System Products Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site • Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast) of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations • Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds Model data sets on NOAA’s WOC and CO-OPS Thredds Server • Station/point netCDF files (6-minute output): • Time series at selected stations • Gridded model output netCDF files (hourly output) Model visualization via nowCOAST GIS-Based Web Mapping Portal (WMS) Users value usefulness, accessibility, reliability • Outputs used by USCG, NOS/OR&R, ASA, etc. in real-time • Web products used daily by coastal managers, maritime navigation and emergency response communities. • Reliability and timely delivery of products are most important.

27. Individual Model systems NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework(COMF) OPERATIONAL MODELS (NOAA’s HPC) REAL-TIME DATA INGEST QA/QC (COMF) • Data Tank on WCOSS: • Atmospheric Forcing • Coastal Boundary Conditions • Riverine Fresh Water Inputs Products and archives Linux Server in CO-OPS FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE (water level, water temp, currents, & salinity) PRODUCTS (web pages and digital pt. & gridded data) FOR USERS tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7

28. NOAA/NOS Coastal Modeling Challenges Continued Collaboration with the IOOS Ocean Modeling Community • Develop, agree & adhere to community standards • (e.g. frameworks; data flow; products) • Testbeds • (e.g. the IOOS COMT) Coupled Model Systems • Riverine-estuarine-regional/coastal-basin; • Hydrodynamic-wave; hydrodynamic-sediment transport • Physical-biogeochemical coupling (e.g. ecological; water quality; habitat) Forecast uncertainty estimation • Probabilistic approach/Ensemble averaging Coastal data assimilation techniques • HF Radar; coastal altimetry; IOOS data; etc.

29. Thank you!