Topic 5 – Migration and Health

1. Topic 5 – Migration and Health A – Global Demography B – International Migration C – Health and Epidemics

2. A – Global Demography Demographic History Population Trends Demographic Transition Population Distribution

3. World Population, 1000BC-2050AD (in billions) Population “explosion” A process of strong demographic growth. Started after the Second World War. About 80 million people added each year.

4. Population Added to the Global Population, 1950-2010 (in millions per year)

5. Scenarios of Global Population Growth, 2009-2050

6. 20 years 15 years 13 years 12 years 13 years 15 years 37 years 118 years World Population 1804-2048 (in billions)

7. World’s 15 Largest Countries, 2005, 2050 (in millions)

8. Population Change between 2000 and 2050 (%)

9. Demographic Transition Theory

10. Stages in Demographic Transition

11. Survivorship of the British Population, 17th and 20th Centuries

12. Crude Birth Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991

13. Crude Death Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991

14. Total Fertility Rate, Selected Units, 1950-2010

15. Fertility Transition in some Countries, 1962-2007

16. Relationship Between Fertility and GDP per Capita, Selected Countries, 2007

17. World Population by Age Group, 1950-2050

18. Share of Global Population per Continent, 1700-2000

19. World Population Density and Distribution, 2005 Typical concentrations along major river systems. Areas of large concentrations: South Asia, East Asia, Western Europe, Northeastern North America. “Empty” areas are attributed to: harsh physical landscapes and harsh temperature.

20. Population Capacity • How many people can be sustained by the Earth? • Based on human choices and natural constraints. • Maximum density. • Quantity of arable land. • Agricultural technology. • Harvesting the ocean. • Human facilities. • Availability of resources (energy, construction materials, etc.). Space Technology Consumption Resources

21. B – International Migration Types of Migration Migration Patterns Brain Drain Migration Policy Refugees

22. Types of Migration • Emigration and immigration • Change in residence. • Relative to origin and destination. • Requires information • People and conditions. • Two different places. • Two different times. • Duration • Permanent. • Seasonal / Temporary. • Choice / constraint • Improve one’s life. • Leave inconvenient / threatening conditions. A Problems or benefits? Emigrant Immigrant B Problems or benefits?

23. Types of Migration • Gross migration • Total number of people coming in and out of an area. • Level of population turnover. • Net Migration • Difference between immigration (in-migration) and emigration (out-migration). • Positive value: • More people coming in. • Population growth (44% of North America and 88% of Europe). • Negative value: • More people coming out. • Population decline. Gross migration Immigration Emigration Net migration

24. Net Migration, 2000-05

25. Types of Migration • International Migration • Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or social failures of a society. • Crossing of a national boundary. • Easier to control and monitor. • Laws to control / inhibit these movements. • Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate each year. • Between 1965 and 2000, 175 million people migrated: • 3% of the global population.

26. Immigration to the United States, 1820-2012 (Millions) Southeast Europe Latin America Asia Germany Scandinavia British Isles

27. Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population: 1850 to 2010

28. Top 10 Countries of Origin for US Legal Immigrants, 1995-2008

29. US Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1990-2050

30. Foreign Born as % of Metropolitan Population

31. Brain Drain • Definition • Relates to educationally specific selective migrations. • Globalization: • Requires additional pools of skilled labor force. • Easier to migrate. • Some countries are losing the most educated segment of their population. • Can be both a benefit for the receiving country (brain gain) and a problem to the country of origin.

32. Brain Drain • Receiving country • Tap various labor pools. • Highly qualified labor contributing to the economy right away. • Promotes economic growth in science and technology. • Not having to pay education and health costs. • It costs about $300,000 to educate an average American. • 50% of skilled migrants go to the US. Only 5% go to Europe. • 30% of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.

33. Brain Drain • Country of origin • Education and health costs not paid back. • Losing potential leaders and talent: • Developing countries lose 15% of their graduates. • 15 to 40% of a graduating class in Canada will move to the US. • 50% of Caribbean graduates leave. • Long term impact on economic growth. • Possibility of remittances. • Many brain drain migrants have skills which they can’t use at home: • The resources and technology may not be available. • The specific labor market is not big enough.

34. Percentage of College Educated Citizens Living Abroad

35. Brain Drain • A reverse migration trend • High costs in developed countries. • New opportunities in developing countries. • Part of the offshoring process of many manufacturing and service activities. • Qualified personnel coming back with skills and connections: • Korea, Taiwan, China and India. • 25,000 Indian technicians went back to India between 2001 and 2004.

36. Number of Students Returning to China, 1978-2007

37. Migration Policies and Global Migration Patterns

38. Migration Policy • Growing level of temporary migration schemes • Work permits. • More in tune with seasonal and economic cycles. • Skilled migrants are increasingly sought after • Lower costs. • Cannot be easily recruited by another corporation. • Growing anti-immigration stance in many countries • Health: carry endemic diseases. • Economic: depress wages and increase social burden. • Nationalism: undermine the cohesion of nation-states. • Environment: cause additional population burdens.

39. Remittances Received, 1970 – 2011 (Millions of US dollars)

40. Refugees • The United Nations definition • The 1951 Convention Regarding the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees: • “..... any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for any reasons of race, religion, nationality, member of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.…” . • The problem lies in the definition of who is a refugee. • There are no international agreements to protect people who cross boundaries for their economic survival.

41. Refugees • Conditions to qualify for refugee status • Political persecution must be demonstrated. • An international boundary must be crossed: • Domestically displaced persons do not qualify. • Protection by one’s government is not seen an alternative: • The government may be the persecutor. • Could be incapable of protecting its citizens from persecution.

42. Refugees • Origins • The first recorded refugees were the Protestant Huguenots who left France to avoid religious persecution. • About 200,000 at the end of the 17th century. • Went to England, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the English colonies in North America. • Pre-WW II and during WW II • Primarily political elites: • Fleeing repression from the new government, which overthrew them. • Usually small in number and often had substantial resources available to them. • War-driven refugees: • About 12% of the European population displaced. • Usually could be expected to repatriate after the war ended.

43. Refugees • Post WW II • Change in the patterns of refugee flows: • The majority of refugees are now coming from the developing world. • De-colonization in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean: • Political unrest in many newly independent states. • Multi-ethnic nature of those states. • The result of the drawing of colonial boundary lines by Europeans. • Cold War and political instability: • Latin America (Cuba, San Salvador, Nicaragua, etc.). • Asia (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc.). • New kind of refugee flow: • Large and of long (or permanent) duration.

44. Refugees and Internally Displaced Populations

45. Refugees • Current issues • Refugees are a controversial issue: • Especially in the developed world. • Only a small share of the asylum seekers are granted the refugee status. • Less than 20% for the European Union. • Increasingly, refugees are no longer accepted. • Economic refugees resorting to asylum as the only way to get a legal status.

46. C – Health and Epidemics The Spread of Diseases Major Epidemics The Threat of Pandemics

47. The Spread of Diseases

48. Fatality Rates per Type of Disease Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

49. Some Factors behind the Global Spread of Diseases

50. Major Epidemics • Black Death • Europe, 14th century (the Plague) • Bacteria (Yersiniapestis) originating in Asia. • Moved through the trade routes. • Entered Europe in 1347. • Transmission by rats, fleas and coughing / sneezing. • 90% death rate of those infected: • Death between 4 to 7 days. • 20 million deaths; 25-33% of the European population. • May have killed 70% of the population of England. • 75 million deaths in Eurasia out of a population of 300 million.