Surface o zone trends in a changing climate

1. Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt& Joakim Langner Surface ozone trends in a changingclimate

2. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe • Whatwillhappentosurfaceozone in the future? • Climatechange • Stability, BVOC, deposition, … • Anthropogenic emission change in Europe • Change in inter-continental transport • Change in stratosphericcontribution • Etc

3. Magnuz Engardt Previous publications with MATCH studyingwith the effect of climate change on air quality: Langner, J., Bergström, R. and Foltescu, V. 2005. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe. Atmos. Environ.39, 1129-1141. Hole, L. and Engardt, M. 2008. Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Northwestern Europe: A model study. Ambio37, 9-17. Langner, J., Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2009. Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change. Boreal Environ. Res.14, 226-237. Engardt, M., Bergström, R. and Andersson, C. 2009. Climate and emission changes contributing to changes in near-surface ozone in Europe over the coming decades: Results from model studies. Ambio 38, 452–458. DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-38.8.452 Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2010. European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions. J. Geophys. Res.,115, D02303. doi:10.1029/2008JD011690 Klingberg J., Engardt M., Uddling J., Karlsson P.E. and Pleijel H. 2010. Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations. Tellus, In press. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00465.x

4. New study– what is moreimportant for futuresurfaceozone • Precursor emissions? • Climatechange? • Boundaryconcentration? • Today’s talk • Design ofstudy • Model set up • Evaluation • Precursoremission projection • Modelledresults:timeseries and maps • Conclusions

5. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Modelling set up Global climatechange ECHAM5 Regional climatechange RCA3 Regional CTM MATCH Dynamicaldownscaling CO2 emission scenario: A1B CO2 emission scenario: A1B Period 1961-2100 • Constant or varying • precursor emissions • boundaryconcentration

6. Andersson and Bergström - scarp 2.2 CTM: MATCH • Eulerianthreedimensionalchemistry transport model • ~60 chemical species • Transport (advection and mixing) • Naturalemissions (sea salt, isoprene) • Deposition • Chemistry (photo-, wet-, thermal-, ~130 reactions in kpp) • Particlecomponents: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, ec, oc, (anthr) dust, sea salt • Input data • 3D met, every 3-6 hours • Emissions • Boundary and initial concentrations • Deposition velocities • Etc… 3-dimensional meteorologicalfields Emissions 3-dimensional transport and chemistry model (MATCH) Boundaryconc, parameters etc. Land use

7. Magnuz Engardt What’s currently missing in MATCH? • Vegetation affected by climate change • Air Quality’s impact on climate • Some PM emissions and dynamics not included in MATCH • MATCH does not consider heavy metals, POPs, greenhouse gases, … MATCH is a mass basedmodelwearecurrentlyincludingmoresophisticatedaerosol dynamictreatmentofparticlesbutthis, updated, model is not included in thisstudy

8. Climate data • Dynamicaldownscalingof global climatemodel over Europe by RCA3 • Input to MATCH every 6 hours (T, CC, QML, PREC, U, V, surfacefields, …) RCA3 (Samuelsson et al 2011, Kjellström et al 2011) • Full descriptionofatmosphere and interationswith land surface • Land surfacemodel (Samuelsson et al 2006) • Lake model, PROBE (Ljungemyr et al 1996) • SST and SI conditionsareprescibed (this set up) • Here: 0.44 km (rotated lat-lon) over Europé • 4month spin up • Transientcalculation 1961-2100 • Has beenapplied in numerous studieswithnumerousGCMs as input

9. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Scenarios (wearealsousing HADCM3-RCA3, not showntoday) • Manuscriptwill be submittedsoon! • Andersson and Engardt JGR 2010 • Engardt et al Ambio 2009 • Andersson and Langner WASP 2007 • Andersson et al Tellus B 2007 • ENSEMBLES: RCA3 (Kjellström et al. 2011) • ECHAM4-RCA3 (Kjellström et al 2005) • ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al 2006) • ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al 1999) • ERA40 (Uppala et al 2005)

10. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Evaluation ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH vs obs20 yearclimatologyofnear-surfaceozone

11. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe RCA3 evaluation1961-1990: T2M and Precipitation Kjellström et al., 2011 • DJF (winter) T2M • JJA (summer) T2M • Precipitation • Deviations from obs • Warm bias in winter (NE) • Wet bias in summer (parts N)

12. RCP4.5 • RCP4.5 - by JGCRI • RCP4.5 end of the century CO2 equiv is ~650 ppm(v)

13. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Precursor emission scenarios - NOx 2100 1850

14. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Precursor emission scenarios - NMVOC 2100 1850

15. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Change in temperature and precipitation2071-2100 vs 1961-1990ECHAM5-RCA3 CO2 : A1B Kjellström et al., 2011 DJF DJF JJA JJA

16. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Change in amjjasavgsurfaceozone in EuropeECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH Impactofclimatechange and RCP4.5 emissions Significant at 99% level 2050s vs 2000s Impactofclimatechange Significant at 99% level 2040s/2050s vs 2000s

17. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Change in surfaceozone in northernEuropeECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH • Average AMJJAS • daily max • dailyaverage Manuscript in preparation

18. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Change in surfaceozone in southernEuropeECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH • Average AMJJAS • daily max • dailyaverage Källström et al., 2009

19. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Change in surfaceozone, southernEuropeAll scenarios (so far) • April-Sept h-max • Climatechange • & Boundary(0.2 ppb yr-1)& precemis • & Precemis • April-Septavg • ClimatechangeECHAM4(A2-GHG) Model at meas sites • April-Septavg • Climatechange • & Boundary(0.2ppb yr-1) & precemis measurement • & Precemis 1960 2100 • April-Septavg • ClimatechangeERA40

20. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Conclusions The effectof emission reductionsin the RCP4.5 scenario on surfaceozonehas greaterimpactthanclimatechangein the ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH scenario on Europeansurfaceozoneduetoclimatechange. Interhemispheric transport has the potentailtobecome an importantfactor in the future, especially for averageconcentrations in northernEurope, butalso for daily max concentrations.

21. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Future plans Publish ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH and HADCM3-RCA3-MATCH scenarios(manuscript is beingcompiled) Use/includemore scenarios in various studies: • CLIMA-TRAP (EU-project) Health impactassessment (manuscript is beingcompiled) • CLEO (Swedish EPA)Vegetation impacts in Sweden • SUDPLAN (EU-project)Downscalingimpactofclimatechange (air pollution, temp, precipitaiton) over someEuropeancities • IMPACT2C (EU-project)Impacts at a 2degree global temp increase • ECLAIRE (EU-project) • Etc…

22. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – futuresurfaceozone in Europe Thankyou for listening!