Adapting to Climate Change: Current Actions and Challenges

1. Adapting to Climate Change: Current Actions and Challenges AASHTO Subcommittee on Design Columbia, SC July 27, 2010 Professor Michael D. Meyer Frederick R. Dickerson Professor School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

2. Adaptation Research

3. 1600 Reducing VMT growth (smart growth, transit, carpooling, vanpooling, walking, TDM, and pricing-related strategies) to 1400 +1.0% annual. System/vehicle operational efficiency (speed limit 1200 reductions/enforcement, ecodriving, smoothing out traffic flow, proper tires and inflation, removing bottlenecks, etc.) 1000 Highest LDV CO2e Emissions Reductions (79% Reduction U.S. Light Duty Transportation CO2e Emissions CO2e/Vehicle Mile) by 2050 (Million Metric Tons) 800 Light duty fleet GHG emissions 600 400 GHG Goal 70% Reduction from 2005 200 0 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Mitigation Adaptation 1% Annual VMT Growth + 100 mpgge LDV Fleet + 10% Operational Efficiency = 74% GHG Reduction by 2050 for LDVs

4. California Executive Order #S-13-08, Nov. 14, 2008, Directing State Agencies to Plan for Sea Level Rise and Climate Impacts. Washington State: Responding to Climate Change:E2SHB 1303 directed the Departments of Ecology and Community Trade and Economic Development (now Commerce) to work with the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington to assess climate change impacts in the state. Massachusetts: Global Warming Solutions Act of 2008: Climate Change Adaptation Advisory Committee: Analyze strategies to prepare for the impacts of climate change to the Commonwealth State Initiatives

5. California “State agencies should generally not plan, develop, or build any new significant structure in a place where that structure will require significant protection from sea level rise, storm surges, or coastal erosion during the expected life of the structure.”

6. Transportation Strategies Strategy 5 – Develop a detailed climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation plan for California’s transportation infrastructure. Strategy 6 –Incorporate climate change vulnerability assessment planning tools, policies, and strategies into existing transportation and investment decisions. Strategy 7 – Develop transportation design and engineering standards to minimize climate change risks to vulnerable transportation infrastructure. Strategy 8 – Incorporate climate change impact considerations into disaster preparedness planning for all transportation modes. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/index.html

7. “…environmental analysis and documents …should provide the decision maker with relevant and timely information about….the relationship of climate change effects to a proposed action or alternatives, including the relationship to proposal design, environmental impacts, mitigation and adaptation measures.” Proposed CEQ Guidance

8. Agencies should determine which climate change impacts warrant consideration Through scoping process, agencies should determine whether climate change considerations warrant emphasis or de-emphasis Sensitivity, location, and timeframe of a proposed action determines the degree to which consideration of these predictions or projections is warranted Effects may include effects on the environment, on public health and safety, and on vulnerable populations who are more likely to be adversely affected by climate change Proposed CEQ Guidance

9. Observed and projected effects of climate change that warrant consideration are most appropriately described as part of the current and future state of the proposed action’s “affected environment “Climate change can affect the integrity of a development or structure …. increase the vulnerability of a resource, ecosystem, or human community…. can magnify the damaging strength of certain effects of a proposed action.” Focus of analysis should be on the aspects of the environment that are affected by the proposed action and the significance of climate change for those aspects of the affected environment. Proposed CEQ Guidance

10. In cases where adaptation to the effects of climate change is important, the significant aspects of these changes should be identified in the agency’s final decision and adoption of a monitoring program should be considered. Monitoring strategies should be modified as more information becomes available and best practices and other experiences are shared. Proposed CEQ Guidance

11. Recent Case Studies from International Conference on Adaptation, Brisbane, Australia • Flood modeling & vulnerabilities in Manila, Philippines (JICA) • Swiss RE: Insurance company considering adaptation risks • Shrewsbury, UK flooding analysis: Vulnerability vs. cost • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) in Australia • Melbourne water supply system vulnerability study (CSIRO) • Australian power system risk assessment (PB project) • Australian concrete deterioration study (CSIRO) • Transitway planning case studies in Sydney and the Gold Coast (Manindis Roberts) • Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee’s (PIEVC) work & engineering protocols in Canada Courtesy: Chris Dorney, Parsons Brinckerhoff

12. Transit New Zealand • Vulnerable assets… • Bridges • Culverts • Causeways and coastal roads • Paved surfaces • Surface drainage • Hillside slopes

13. Transit New Zealand Currently applied design approaches might not protect bridges and culverts with a design life of over 50 years from climate change impacts Transit New Zealand’s bridge design specifications are now requiring risk analysis for increased flood flows and consideration of bridge retrofit for changing hydrology… especially retrofits

14. A Typical Infrastructure Segment

15. Critical Components of Infrastructure Design • Subsurface conditions • Materials specifications • Cross sections/standard dimensions • Drainage and erosion • Structures • Location engineering

21. AdaptationPlanningFramework Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify critical assets in the network Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Network Functions Asset A Asset B Asset C Asset X Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Identify affected highway agency functions

22. AdaptationPlanningFramework Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify critical assets in the network Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Network Functions Asset A Asset B Asset C Asset X Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Identify affected highway agency functions

23. Proactive Strategies to Flood Risk Preventing flooding by improving the rainfall capture and storage capacity of a catchment (e.g. by enhancing or mimicking the water storage capacity of the soil); Increasing conveyance capacity to disperse floodwaters; Creating policies to maintain existing levels of service which incorporate climate change factors at the time of repairs or upgrades; NZ Transport Agency, Climate Change Effects on the Land Transport Network, Volume Two: Approach to Risk Management, 2009

24. Proactive Strategies to Flood Risk, cont’d Establishing physical protection measures, e.g. building stop-banks; Managing the effects of flooding by removing at-risk land use such as infrastructure and the built environment in floodplains; and Managing the expectations of communities in flood-prone areas to expect and cope with flood events. NZ Transport Agency, Climate Change Effects on the Land Transport Network, Volume Two: Approach to Risk Management, 2009

25. NCHRP 20-83(5) Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation Approaches

26. Illustrative Regions of the United States for Climate Adaptation Analysis

28. Illustrative Climate Adaptation Analysis

29. Illustrative Climate Adaptation Analysis

30. Illustrative Climate Adaptation Analysis

31. AdaptationPlanningFramework Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify critical assets in the network Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Network Functions Asset A Asset B Asset C Asset X Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Identify affected highway agency functions