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Intentionally left black. PAX Agent-Based Modeling of Peace Support Operations. Gunther Schwarz, EADS Dornier, BDOR Germany. Peace Support Operations / Project David PSO-Distillation: Prototype PAX Goals Scenario Concepts Model description User interface Analysis with PAX

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  1. Intentionally left black

  2. PAXAgent-Based Modeling of Peace Support Operations Gunther Schwarz, EADS Dornier, BDOR Germany

  3. Peace Support Operations / Project David PSO-Distillation: Prototype PAX Goals Scenario Concepts Model description User interface Analysis with PAX Further Work Outline PAX

  4. Traditional Combat: comparison of combat losses between own and opposing forces Traditional Analysis Combat vs. Analysis of Peace Support • Peace Support: • avoid escalation and minimization of losses (usually on all sides)

  5. Problem: Peace Support Operations can't be modeled with existing combat oriented simulation systems Agent-Based Approach seems to be an appropriate alternative Modeling of Peace Support Operations

  6. Part of Project Albert Focus: Modeling of Peace Support Operations Born at Maui in June 2000 (2nd Project Albert International Workshop) Project David

  7. PSO: Project David Scenarios Patrol Disarming Check Point Medical Support Crowd Control Headquarter Convoy Protection Water Supply Food Distribution Crowd Management Food Supply Protection Mission Spectrum PSO Food Storage Area/Building Screening Contingency Units Admin Support Convoy Confrontation Separation Police Operations Combat

  8. Experiments during Project Albert International Workshop 4 in Cairns (AUS) using the Distillation tool MANA (0.97) Food Distribution (MANA): First Try 15 15 5 5 5 60 20 20 20 20 20 20

  9. Food Distribution (MANA): Results Short Short Short Long Long Long Exposure Exposure Exposure 60 20 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 5 5 5 Red Losses • Blue does much better with smaller food distribution points and lower time of exposure Blue Losses

  10. Results ok and Plausible, but showed: Only worst case - the real conflict situation - could be modeled sufficiently well Not the process of escalation, but mainly the already escalated situation could be modeled! No way to model de-escalation “Civilians” did not really exist: The only possibility was to model them as opponents The Food Distribution Process could not be modeled at all Food Distribution (MANA): Observation

  11. Existing agent-based models: powerful, but main focus on combat modeling Strong emphasis on Movement Only form of interaction: Fighting No reasonable modeling of Civilians  Demand for a model, that is truly designed for PSO Adapt the models to our questions and not the questions to our models! Modeling of Peace Support Operations

  12. Peace Support Operations / Project David PSO-Distillation: Prototype PAX Goals Scenario Concepts Model description User interface Analysis with PAX Further Work Outline

  13. EADS Dornier Project Context: Project Albert initiated by German Army Office and assisted by German Center for Analyses and Studies Peace Support Operation „Food Distribution by Convoy“ Special Interest: Peace Keeping Aspect Prototype PAX HA I 1 (4) Pax (Roman Goddess of Peace)

  14. Aim at the "heart" of Peace Support Operations Modeling of Civilians Internal states and processes that determine behavior: Motives, Emotions, Readiness for Aggression, ... Group and Mass Effects Soldiers Not only concentrating on "combat abilities" Address "new" questions, e. g.: How can an escalation be avoided or reduced (deescalation) under certain circumstances? At which point could a stop of the operation be the best option? What kind of behavior and abilities help to avoid a dangerous situation? Goals of PAX Nonlinear Effects Intangibles

  15. Situation: Convoy (1 truck with food packets; 1 truck with infantry soldiers) has arrived in a Village Infantry Soldiers have dismounted their vehicle and form 2 small groups. Their Target is: To Protect the distribution process To Avoid violence and escalation Scenario / Mission: Food Distribution by Convoy

  16. Main Goal: To achieve a non-violent, fast and equitable distribution Exemplary Investigation of the factors: Behavior of military personnel Behavior of Civilians personality traits group influence Mission: Food Distribution by Convoy

  17. Standardized Modeling of Military Multi-Agent-Systems Based on PECS (Physis - Emotion - Cognition - Social Characteristics), C. Urban, University of Passau, Germany PAX - Modeling Concepts:Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)

  18. PAX - Modeling Concepts:Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)

  19. MPECS - Agent Z_1 Z_1 F F New Behavior Action

  20. Environment Agents Interaction PAX: Model Elements

  21. real urban area PAX: Environment • abstract terrain model Abstraction

  22. Region of Influence Group influence Interactions built-up areas "safe place" for civilians Environment: Area Types

  23. Soldiers Civilians Supply Vehicle PAX: Agent Types

  24. Soldiers are modeled with purely reactive behavior They always "function", according to their rule sets ( the rules of engagement) They do not have internal "state variables", that means no motives, no emotions only rule sets PAX: Modeling of Soldiers

  25. Behavior of Soldiers is Determined by: Actions of individual Civilians Overall Situation: Behavior of Civilian Groups Action Possibilities Action “Wait” Action “Pacify” Action “Threaten” Action “Defend” Alternative “Rule Sets” for the Soldiers Example for a behavior rule of the soldiers: PAX: Behavior of Soldiers Other Civilians are mainly not aggressive Soldier “pacifies” Civilian “threatens“

  26. Soldiers: Rule Set 1 PAX: Behavior of Soldiers

  27. Soldiers: Rule Set 2 PAX: Behavior of Soldiers

  28. Dynamics of the Internal States of the civilians: Autonomous Dynamics Actions of the soldiers Group Influence Individual Behavior is caused by: Internal States (e. g. of the motives, emotions, ...) “Thinking”, internal strategies PAX: Behavior of Civilians

  29. Action “Wait” Action “Move” Action “Demand a supply packet” (target: supply vehicle) Action “Threaten” (target: soldier) Action “Attack” (target: soldier) Modeling of the Civilians: Action Possibilities

  30. Behavior of Humans depends strongly on psychic forces, like motives and emotions PAX: Motive Need, Emotions Fear and Anger Those forces have a certain strength which may change over time or because of certain events In our case the modeled psychic forces are in competition. That means, one of them is dominating (action leading force / motive) the others depending on the motivational / emotional strength of the force. Psychological Background

  31. 3 basic “Psychic Forces”: Motive “Need (for Food)” Emotion “Fear” Emotion “Anger” Other important variables Readiness for Aggression ... PAX: Behavior of Civilians Need Anger Fear Selection Action leading Force: Need Action Goal: Get Supply Goods

  32. Time continuous modeling (not only discrete steps or event-based): allows the use of differential equations for certain state variables, e. g. fear: PAX: Modeling of the Civilians EVENT

  33. Psychological Theory for the evolvement of aggressiveness Founded on empirical Findings Example: [Prentice-Dunn et al., 1989] Psychological Background Feeling of Group Cohesiveness Physiological Arousal Being Part of a Mass of People Deindividuation

  34. Civilian Behavior Model (simplified)

  35. Specified Capacity of Food packets e. g. 50 units. PAX: Behavior of Food Supply Vehicle Agent Still Food available on truck Hand out Food Civilian “demands Food“

  36. PAX: Scenario Editor • Terrain • built-up areas • normal areas • regions of influence • Defining of Agents • Soldier groups • Behavior rules • Civilians • different "personalities" • Motives, Emotions • Readiness for Aggression • Group Cohesiveness • Supply Vehicle • number of supply packages

  37. PAX: Running Simulations • Selection of Scenario Settings • Duration of Simulation • Random Numbers • Runs are reproducible with same setting of random numbers

  38. PAX: Animation • Visualization of performed simulations • Agents • Civilians • RED: Anger is action-leading • GREEN: Fear • YELLOW: Need • Soldier Groups • BLUE • Supply Vehicle • Dark-BLUE

  39. PAX: Animation - Interactions • Interactions • Dark-RED: Attack / Defend • RED: Threaten • GREEN: Pacify • BLACK: Pass a supply packet • BLAU: Demand a packet

  40. PAX: Animation - Statistics

  41. PAX: Animation - Details

  42. Modeling of Soldiers adding "soft factors", like emotions, stress, ... movement sensors advanced behavior (subtle tactics, ...) Developing a training tool User interacts with PAX simulation, e. g. in a 3D virtual environment. Calibration and Validation of PAX Tool for analyzing PSO effects Outlook: Modeling

  43. Data Farming with PAX Now: Run PAX on 1 machine Use of MS Excel for visualization Future: Use of Gilgamesh network Use of Project Albert Visualization Toolkit Outlook: Data Farming

  44. PSO: Mission Spectrum Patrol Disarming Check Point Medical Support Crowd Control Headquarter Water Supply Crowd Management Food Supply Protection Mission Spectrum PSO Food Storage Area/Building Screening Contingency Units Admin Support Convoy Confrontation Separation Police Operations Combat • Missions related to basics of PAX • group and mass effects • evolving aggressiveness • escalation / deescalation

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