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Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Matthew R. Arrants Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com marrants@pinnacle-advisory.com. New Hampshire Outlook. Pinnacle Realty Investments. Pinnacle Advisory Group.
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Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Matthew R. Arrants Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com marrants@pinnacle-advisory.com New Hampshire Outlook Pinnacle Realty Investments Pinnacle Advisory Group
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent Change12 Month Moving Average To August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesOccupancy / ADR Percent Change12 Month Moving Average To August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesOccupancy and ADR12 Month Moving Average To August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Monthly OccupancyYear-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Monthly ADRYear-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Monthly RevParYear-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Daily Occupancy*Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003 *Excluding Sunday
Total U.S.Average Daily Room Revenue (M)Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003 In Millions *Excluding Sunday
Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change1998 – 2004P Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent1998 – 2004P Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesADR Percent Change1998 – 2004P Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Estimated ADR ChangeImpact of 3rd Party Intermediaries
Total U.S.Estimated Lost Room Revenue3rd Party Intermediaries In Millions
New England Occupancy - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Average Daily Rate – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England RevPAR – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Change in Performance - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Change in Performance – YTD August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Year-to-date Occupancy – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Year-to-date Average Rate – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Year-to-date RevPAR – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Change In Performance by Market YTD Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth - Factors Affecting Market Performance • Lack of Scandals (Cabletron/Tyco) • New Supply • Wentworth • 2 Hotels in Zoning • Developer Interest • Improving economy? • Cautious Optimism
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua - Factors Affecting Market Performance • Improving Business Travel • Increases in Group Demand • No New Supply • Cautious Optimism
Manchester Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester - Factors Affecting Market Performance • New Supply • New Supply • New Supply
Manchester – New Supply • Springhill Suites – 3/02 • Holiday Express – 3/03 • Hampton Inn and Suites – 10/03 • Homewood Suites – 10/03 • Residence Inn - 2005? • Hilton Garden Inn – 2005?
Concord Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Concord Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Concord Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Concord - Factors Affecting Market Performance • No New Supply • Changes at the Hampton Inn Bow • Departure of Allegro • Some Modest Growth
White Mountains and Lakes Region – Market Performance • Rates are Up Occupancy is down • Overall, markets are relatively flat but there are winners and losers • Short Booking Window • Shorter Lengths of Stay • Outlook for corporate and tour groups looks good for 2004
Conclusion / Summary • Signs are positive for Most Markets • Group Pace for 04 is ahead of 03 • More Stable Geopolitical Situation • Improving Economy • Overall – Cautious Optimism
2004 Projections* • White Mountains and Lakes Region • Occupancy up 3 Points • Rates up 2 Percent • Portsmouth • Occupancy up 1 point • Rates up 3 percent • Nashua - Merrimack • Occupancy up 2 points • Rates up 2 percent • Manchester • Occupancy down 2 points • Rates Flat • Concord • Occupancy up 2 points • Rates up 2 percent *(Do not reflect impact of Primaries)