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This report provides an overview of the performance and outlook of the New Hampshire lodging market, including occupancy rates, average daily rates, and revenue per available room. It also examines factors affecting market performance in key cities such as Portsmouth, Nashua/Merrimack, Manchester, Concord, and the White Mountains and Lakes region.
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Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Matthew R. Arrants Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com marrants@pinnacle-advisory.com New Hampshire Outlook Pinnacle Realty Investments Pinnacle Advisory Group
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent Change12 Month Moving Average To August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesOccupancy / ADR Percent Change12 Month Moving Average To August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesOccupancy and ADR12 Month Moving Average To August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Monthly OccupancyYear-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Monthly ADRYear-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Monthly RevParYear-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Daily Occupancy*Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003 *Excluding Sunday
Total U.S.Average Daily Room Revenue (M)Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003 In Millions *Excluding Sunday
Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change1998 – 2004P Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent1998 – 2004P Source: Smith Travel Research
Total United StatesADR Percent Change1998 – 2004P Source: Smith Travel Research
Total U.S.Estimated ADR ChangeImpact of 3rd Party Intermediaries
Total U.S.Estimated Lost Room Revenue3rd Party Intermediaries In Millions
New England Occupancy - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Average Daily Rate – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England RevPAR – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Change in Performance - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England Change in Performance – YTD August 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Year-to-date Occupancy – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Year-to-date Average Rate – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Year-to-date RevPAR – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Change In Performance by Market YTD Aug 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Portsmouth - Factors Affecting Market Performance • Lack of Scandals (Cabletron/Tyco) • New Supply • Wentworth • 2 Hotels in Zoning • Developer Interest • Improving economy? • Cautious Optimism
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Nashua - Factors Affecting Market Performance • Improving Business Travel • Increases in Group Demand • No New Supply • Cautious Optimism
Manchester Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester - Factors Affecting Market Performance • New Supply • New Supply • New Supply
Manchester – New Supply • Springhill Suites – 3/02 • Holiday Express – 3/03 • Hampton Inn and Suites – 10/03 • Homewood Suites – 10/03 • Residence Inn - 2005? • Hilton Garden Inn – 2005?
Concord Year To Date Occupancy (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Concord Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Concord Year To Date RevPAR (Aug) Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group
Concord - Factors Affecting Market Performance • No New Supply • Changes at the Hampton Inn Bow • Departure of Allegro • Some Modest Growth
White Mountains and Lakes Region – Market Performance • Rates are Up Occupancy is down • Overall, markets are relatively flat but there are winners and losers • Short Booking Window • Shorter Lengths of Stay • Outlook for corporate and tour groups looks good for 2004
Conclusion / Summary • Signs are positive for Most Markets • Group Pace for 04 is ahead of 03 • More Stable Geopolitical Situation • Improving Economy • Overall – Cautious Optimism
2004 Projections* • White Mountains and Lakes Region • Occupancy up 3 Points • Rates up 2 Percent • Portsmouth • Occupancy up 1 point • Rates up 3 percent • Nashua - Merrimack • Occupancy up 2 points • Rates up 2 percent • Manchester • Occupancy down 2 points • Rates Flat • Concord • Occupancy up 2 points • Rates up 2 percent *(Do not reflect impact of Primaries)