“Dual Facility”

1. Decision Tree for Strategic Long-Term Delta Export Decision Initial Decision Peripheral canal cost Fish recover No recovery Peripheral canal cost + reduced export costs Peripheral Canal Peripheral canal cost + through-Delta cost Fish recover “Dual Facility” Peripheral canal cost + through-Delta cost + reduced export costs No recovery End water exports Continue through-Delta exports Cost of ending all exports Through-Delta cost + reduced export costs + water quality costs Never fails Range of sea level rise End water exports Through-Delta cost + discounted failure & ending export costs Time to major failure PeripheralCanal Fish Recovery Through-Delta cost + discounted failure & peripheral canal costs Continue through- Delta exports No recovery Follow-up decision Through-Delta cost + discounted failure, peripheral canal& reduced export costs Through-Delta Cost + discountedpresent & future failure and repaircosts, reduced export costs and water quality costs Chance point