The Reality of Livestock Movement Patterns

1. The Reality of Livestock Movement Patterns Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Professor, Ag Economics & Ag Business Las Cruces, NM

2. Outline • Livestock in the United States • Movement of livestock in the United States • NMSU research on U.S. imports of Mexican cattle • General trade situation & outlook • Beef & cattle trade in North America

3. Livestock in the United States • Cattle • Sheep • Hogs • Interstate Livestock Movements • Shields & Mathews USDA-ERS 2003 • http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/jun03/ldpm10801/

15. Cattle Imports from Mexico

16. Distribution of Imported Mexican Calves 2003

18. Mexican Calves Exported to the U.S. By Month (1972-2004) 400,000 300,000 200,000 Head 100,000 0 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

19. NM Research on Identification of Origins & Destinations of Imported Calves • Research began 2001 • Interest in livestock traceability • Europe, Canada • Foot & Mouth, BSE • Terrorism • Tuberculosis • Data for imported calves • Sta. Teresa / San Jerónimo

20. Sources of Data … • Origins of the calves in Mexico • Certificado Zoosanitario; Unión Ganadera, J. Flores • 900 observations – The “Ins” • Destinations of calves in the U.S. • Unión Ganadera, bills of lading; Wm.Wallace III • 4,025 observations – The “Outs” • New Mexico Livestock Board; Dr. S. England • 2,278 observations – New Mexico Inspection Certificates • Assistance in obtaining the data • R. Tellez, NMDA

26. Research Publications • “Live Cattle Exports from Mexico Into the United States: Where Do They Come From & Where Do They Go?” • Skaggs, Acuña, Torell & Southard • http://www.choicesmagazine.org/current/2004-1-05.htm

27. Research Publications • “Mexican Cattle Exports to the US: Current Perspectives” • Mitchell, Skaggs, Gorman, Crawford & Southard • http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/AgOutlook/june2001/AO282d.pdf

28. Trade & U.S. Agriculture • Food demand in the U.S. will not grow significantly in the future • U.S. population is affluent & well fed • U.S. food market is saturated • Food demand is income & price inelastic • U.S. Ag needs international markets • Earnings from exports are 20-30% of total U.S. farm income • Trade is a two-way street

29. Value of Agricultural Trade • Japan, EU, Canada & Mexico are leading export markets • Canada, EU & Mexico are top sources of U.S. ag imports • U.S. ag exports > ag imports since 1950s • U.S. is world’s largest ag importer & exporter

31. Livestock (& Beef) Trade • Live animals, meats, meat products, hides, by-products, genetics are widely traded • U.S. imports & exports all types of livestock products and live animals • U.S. beef exports = 10% of U.S. beef production • Parts of 90% of all U.S. cattle end up exported • 2003 export market losses = 60,000 head/week

32. Top Markets for U.S. Beef • Japan 32% • Mexico 26% • South Korea 24% • Canada 10%

33. Total Value of U.S. Beef & Cattle Trade with Canada & Mexico $4.1 Billion(2002)

34. Total Value of U.S. – Canada Beef & Cattle Trade $2.8 Billion(2002)

35. Total Value of U.S. – Mexico Beef & Cattle Trade $1.4 Billion(2002)

36. Contact Information Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Professor, Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business Box 30003 MSC 3169 New Mexico State University Las Cruces, NM 88003 Tel: 505-646-1344 or 505-646-2401 Fax: 505-646-3808 Email: rskaggs@nmsu.edu

37. Acknowledgements • New Mexico Department of Agriculture • Marketing & Development Division • New Mexico Livestock Board • State Veterinarian • Unión Ganadera Regional de Chihuahua • Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua • USDA – Economic Research Service • USDA – Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service

38. My Current Research… • Movement of cattle and meat between the U.S. and Mexico. • Description of the cattle export process in Chihuahua. • Econometric models including Mexican cattle imports.

39. My Current Research… • Survey of calf exporters in Chihuahua. • Electronic identification systems – analysis and feasibility. • Development of improved bill of lading (proposed for use on U.S. side of cattle crossings).